201 Hillside Spur · Lake Arrowhead, CA 92321

$149,999

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 608 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 42 Days on market

Built 1936 2,400 sqft lot $247/sqft · 49% below area Est $297k · 49% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.7/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Oh baby is this one nice. Total rehab that includes new paint, new siding, new windows, new flooring, new kitchen, new electric, new appliances and more. Nice, peaceful cozy area of Cedar Glen, but just minutes away from everything that Lake Arrowhead has to offer.

Key facts

• Mountain living
• Shopping
• Cedar glen

Tags

• CEDAR GLEN
• LAKE ARROWHEAD VILLAGE
• REMODELED HOME
• MOUNTAIN LIVING
• SHOPPING
• DINING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family detached residence; 1 story
• Construction: Stucco construction
• Exterior features: Shingle roof

Interior

• Bedrooms: 1 possible bedroom
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Natural gas heating
• Interior features: Fireplace (1)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-17 ($-207/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $147k (2.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $137k (8.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $137k (8.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 2.8% in Lake Arrowhead — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#965 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A-, commute B+, employment B; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D+, schools D.
• Rim Of The World Unified (town): math 13% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #415 of 517 in CA (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 77 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (25%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1936 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $137,243 (8.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1936 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.49%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $297,011
• List price: $149,999
• Delta: -49.50%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 17 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
197 Western Dr	0.21mi	2/1.0 (+1)	651 (+7%)	1mo	$221,500	$340	72
29235 Lake View Dr	0.11mi	2/1.0 (+1)	609 (+0%)	22mo	$280,000	$460	72

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.92×
• Total profit: $80,655
• Equity at exit: $135,131

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.68×
• Total profit: $238,501
• Equity at exit: $291,415

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92321

• Home prices YoY: 3.6%
• Active inventory: 77
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,372 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$252 /mo · $3,028/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$288
• Net cashflow: $-17

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,394

Max offer price $146,952

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
354 Emerald Dr Lake Arrowhead, CA	—	1.0	350	$1,550	$4.43	43d	1	0.33mi
29180 N Dr unit Unit 06 Cedar Glen, CA	—	1.0	400	$1,050	$2.62	1d	1	0.61mi
29180 North Dr Unit 1 bedroom Cedar Glen, CA	1.0	1.0	700	$1,400	$2.00	1d	1	0.61mi

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,999 Active 42 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,999 Active 41 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,999 Active 40 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   price $149,999 Active 39 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,999 Active 39 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,999 Active 37 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,999 Active 36 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,999 Active 33 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,999 Active 32 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,999 Active 31 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $199,999 Active 28 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,999 Active 27 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,999 Active 26 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,999 Active 25 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,999 Active 24 DOM
16. 2026-05-06
    listed $199,999 Active 655-char remark
17. 2023-12-30
    historical
18. 2023-08-30
    price $270,000
19. 2023-07-01
    listed $280,000 Active
20. 2021-07-08
    soldstatus $220,000 Closed Sale

    Show marketing remark (265 chars)

    Oh baby is this one nice. Total rehab that includes new paint, new siding, new windows, new flooring, new kitchen, new electric, new appliances and more. Nice, peaceful cozy area of Cedar Glen, but just minutes away from everything that Lake Arrowhead has to offer.

21. 2021-07-08
    soldstatus $220,000

    Show marketing remark (265 chars)

    Oh baby is this one nice. Total rehab that includes new paint, new siding, new windows, new flooring, new kitchen, new electric, new appliances and more. Nice, peaceful cozy area of Cedar Glen, but just minutes away from everything that Lake Arrowhead has to offer.

22. 2021-06-24
    historical Active Under Contract

    Show marketing remark (265 chars)

    Oh baby is this one nice. Total rehab that includes new paint, new siding, new windows, new flooring, new kitchen, new electric, new appliances and more. Nice, peaceful cozy area of Cedar Glen, but just minutes away from everything that Lake Arrowhead has to offer.

23. 2021-05-10
    price $219,900

    Show marketing remark (265 chars)

    Oh baby is this one nice. Total rehab that includes new paint, new siding, new windows, new flooring, new kitchen, new electric, new appliances and more. Nice, peaceful cozy area of Cedar Glen, but just minutes away from everything that Lake Arrowhead has to offer.

24. 2021-02-14
    listed $249,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (265 chars)

    Oh baby is this one nice. Total rehab that includes new paint, new siding, new windows, new flooring, new kitchen, new electric, new appliances and more. Nice, peaceful cozy area of Cedar Glen, but just minutes away from everything that Lake Arrowhead has to offer.

25. 2019-08-21
    historical
26. 2019-05-16
    historical
27. 2018-08-22
    listed $11,500
28. 2017-01-16
    listed $7,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,028 · $252/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,028 · $252/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 5 d/yr ≥85°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 30 unhealthy d/yr today · 37 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,469
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$3,028
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,318
• − Management: −$1,318
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable loss: −$2,710
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$650
• After-tax cash flow: $443/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rim Of The World Unified
• NCES district ID: 0632610
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $55,860
• Composite: 21.29/100
• National rank: #8389
• State rank: #415 of 517 in CA

Livability — Lake Arrowhead

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #965
• US rank: #24524

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living F Crime D+ Employment B Housing A- Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Arrowhead, CA
• City population: 6,246
• Population (ZIP): 828

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (58%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 17%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 36% Salvadoran 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 9% Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 17.53%
• Current HPI: 510.4737
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+1900.0% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Price Changed $149,999 SDMLS
• 2026-05-06 Listed $199,999 SDMLS
• 2023-12-30 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2023-08-30 Price Changed $270,000 CRMLS
• 2023-07-01 Listed $280,000 CRMLS
• 2021-07-08 Sold (Public Records) $220,000 Public Records
• 2021-07-08 Sold (MLS) $220,000 CRMLS
• 2021-06-24 Contingent — CRMLS
• 2021-05-10 Price Changed $219,900 CRMLS
• 2021-02-14 Listed $249,900 CRMLS
• 2019-08-21 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2019-05-16 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2018-08-22 Listed $11,500 SDMLS
• 2017-01-16 Listed $7,500 SDMLS

Property tax history

+10.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,028 · -1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.