3897 Grapevine Dr · Lake Bryan, TX 77807

$200,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Manufactured public records · 6 Days on market

Built 2008

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautiful family home that has been loved and enjoyed feels like your way in the country but close enough to town you can still receive order (Food or Store) deliveries. You can have animals it would be wonderful for a horse. We have raised 4. H show animals and had a horse and it has been perfect detached 2 car garage with room for equipment. Large storage building with work benches built in feed room with saddle racks with electrical hook up there is plenty of light at night with two security lights and motion sensor lighting large 3 bed 2 bath with fireplace and office or separate child play area or something creative large walking closets throughout two beautiful country porches large

Key facts

• Electrical hook up
• Built in feed room
• Saddle racks

Tags

• DETACHED 2 CAR GARAGE
• LARGE STORAGE BUILDING
• BUILT IN FEED ROOM
• SADDLE RACKS
• ELECTRICAL HOOK UP
• SECURITY LIGHTS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: Built in 2008
• Construction: Living area approximately 1,456
• Exterior features: Located in the Grapevine subdivision

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $281 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $197k (1.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $197k (1.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#722 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Bryan ISD (urban): math 30% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #608 of 826 in TX (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 303 active listings in the ZIP; 2,211 units permitted in Brazos County in 2024 (768 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brazos County population projected at +55% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $197,292 (1.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.02%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-14,556
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.18×
• Total profit: $10,217
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77807

• Active inventory: 303
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,973 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$146 /mo · $1,747/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$414
• Net cashflow: $281

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,617

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $200,000 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $200,000 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $200,000 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $200,000 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
6. 2026-06-13
   listed $200,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,747 · $146/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,660 · $305/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,913/yr (+$159/mo · 109.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,675
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$1,747
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,894
• − Management: −$1,894
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable income: $118
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$28
• After-tax cash flow: $3,342/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bryan ISD
• NCES district ID: 4811790
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $41,895
• Composite: 26.26/100
• National rank: #7253
• State rank: #608 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lake Bryan

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #722
• US rank: #13455

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Bryan, TX
• County: Brazos County · 233,400 people
• Metro: College Station-Bryan, TX
• Population (ZIP): 13,227
• Household income: $74,375
• Rent vs Own: 44.5% rent · 55.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 629.0

Population outlook (Brazos County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 267,942 people
• By 2030: 296,630 · +10.7%
• By 2040: 354,560 · +32.3%
• By 2050: 414,616 · +54.7%
• By 2075: 562,158 · +109.8%
• By 2100: 678,828 · +153.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 18% Black 14% Native American 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Guatemala, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 24% Other Asian/Pacific 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brazos

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.9) · D 36.9% · R 61.7% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.1pp toward D · 2008: -28.9pp · 2024: -24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.9 2020: R+14.3 2016: R+23.7 2012: R+35.3 2008: R+28.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -114.38%
• Current HPI: 186.1387
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: College Station-Bryan, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-13 Listed $200,000 FSBO.com
• 2010-11-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,747 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.