2507 Erlands Point Rd NW · Kitsap Lake, WA 98312

$409,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,222 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 75 Days on market

Built 1944 3,920 sqft lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

Centrally located duplex in the desirable Erlands Point Community and 1 block from the Kitsap Golf & Country Club! EZ property to rent! 2505 is a 1 bedroom / 1 bath unit with a long-term tenant and in great shape. 2507 is 2 bedroom / 1 bath with new "Life Proof" flooring and a modest remodel. Both units have newer dbl pane vinyl windows. This property can be purchased together with the neighboring property located at 3500 Dyes Inlet Rd, MLS# 2456797 and the owner is willing to consider owner financing with agreeable terms, OAC. Great opportunity for the first time home buyer or an investor!

Key facts

• 3,920 sq ft lot
• Built 1944
• Listed 75 days

Tags

• CENTRALLY LOCATED DUPLEX
• NEW LIFE PROOF FLOORING
• NEWER DBL PANE VINYL WINDOWS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 3-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $410k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $718 ($9k/yr) — positive. Per door: $359/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $410k).
• Recommended offer: $385k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Central Kitsap School District (urban): math 55% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #49 of 291 in WA (top 17%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 349 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,294 units permitted in Kitsap County in 2024 (302 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,132/mo this rent would consume 55% of the median local household income ($90k/yr) (locally 993% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kitsap County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 75 days — a 6% lower offer ($385k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $128k; list at $410k implies a 219% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1944 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $385,306 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 75 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Built in 1944 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.51%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.28% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-31,791
• Equity at exit: $61,117

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.90×
• Total profit: $-12,014
• Equity at exit: $35,441

Cash invested: $114,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98312

• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 349
• Price-to-rent: 16.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,132 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,150
• Tax from tax record: −$226 /mo · $2,707/yr
• Insurance: −$171
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$868
• Net cashflow: $718

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,223

Max offer price $409,900

Occupancy floor 78%

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	3	1	$4,132
Total (2 units)			$4,132

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $102,475
• Closing costs: $12,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3000 Austin Dr Bremerton, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	950	$2,150	$2.26	13d	10	0.17mi
3873 NW Fairway Ln Bremerton, WA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1025	$2,125	$2.07	13d	10	0.20mi
3985 NW Dyes Inlet Ln Bremerton, WA	2.0	1.0	900	$2,100	$2.33	13d	1	0.23mi
3405 Northlake Way NW Unit 3 Bremerton, WA	2.0	1.0	748	$1,500	$2.01	13d	1	0.44mi
3000 Northlake Way NW Bremerton, WA	2.0	1.0	729	$1,400	$1.92	43d	1	0.66mi
4091 NW Country Ln Bremerton, WA	2.0	1.0	800	$1,600	$2.00	13d	1	0.77mi
4091 Country Ln NW Unit 9 Bremerton, WA	2.0	1.0	800	$1,600	$2.00	21d	1	0.77mi
5302 Chico Way NW Bremerton, WA	2.0	1.0	1200	$2,700	$2.25	21d	1	1.16mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-02
   days on market $409,900 Active 75 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $409,900 Active 74 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $409,900 Active 73 DOM
4. 2026-05-30
   days on market $409,900 Active 72 DOM
5. 2026-04-16
   price $409,900
6. 2026-03-19
   listed $413,900 Active
7. 2003-10-09
   soldstatus $128,500
8. 2003-10-09
   soldstatus $128,500
9. 2003-05-05
   listed $133,900
10. 1999-04-26
    soldstatus $44,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,707 · $226/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,017 · $335/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,310/yr (+$109/mo · 48.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥86°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 10 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $49,584
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,961
• − Property taxes: −$2,707
• − Insurance: −$2,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,967
• − Management: −$3,967
• − Depreciation: −$11,924
• Taxable income: $2,009
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$482
• After-tax cash flow: $8,138/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Central Kitsap School District
• NCES district ID: 5301080
• Math proficiency: 55% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 67% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $64,825
• Composite: 54.87/100
• National rank: #2813
• State rank: #49 of 291 in WA

Livability — Kitsap Lake

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kitsap Lake, WA
• County: Kitsap County · 243,099 people
• Metro: Bremerton-Silverdale-Port Orchard, WA
• Population (ZIP): 36,307
• Household income: $90,449
• Rent vs Own: 36.5% rent · 63.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 993.0

Population outlook (Kitsap County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 277,525 people
• By 2030: 285,040 · +2.7%
• By 2040: 294,957 · +6.3%
• By 2050: 300,622 · +8.3%
• By 2075: 315,580 · +13.7%
• By 2100: 304,340 · +9.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Two or more races 13% Hispanic / Latino 12% Asian 4% Black 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 7% Portuguese 5% Slovak 4%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kitsap

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.9) · D 58.8% · R 37.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +8.6pp toward D · 2008: 12.3pp · 2024: 20.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.9 2020: D+18.1 2016: D+11.6 2012: D+11.1 2008: D+12.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -436.68%
• Current HPI: 379.2342
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.28%
• Metro: Bremerton-Silverdale-Port Orchard, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+831.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $409,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-19 Listed $413,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-10-09 Sold (Public Records) $128,500 Public Records
• 2003-10-09 Sold (MLS) $128,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-05-05 Listed $133,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1999-04-26 Sold (Public Records) $44,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,707 · +1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.