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15300 Palm Dr #18
D+ Composite 46.44
Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

  • Cash flow +12.9/30.0
  • ARV discount +12.4/15.0
  • 1% rule +5.2/10.0
  • DSCR +4.0/10.0
  • Schools +4.0/10.0
  • Condition / age +3.8/5.0
  • Rent growth +3.4/5.0
  • Appreciation +2.5/10.0
  • Livability +2.5/5.0
  • Manufactured-home adj. -4.0

$192,000

15300 Palm Dr #18 · Desert Hot Springs, CA 92240
3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured · 38 Days on market
Manufactured home likely 55+ (park) Built 1988 Good condition 4,792 sqft lot $143/sqft · 11% below area Est $215k · 11% under $329/mo HOA · 17% of rent

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

This furnished 1988, 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers nearly 1,400 sq. ft. of comfortable living space and is ideally situated on a prime corner lot with beautiful mountain views from the front porch. Owned by the same owners since new, the home has been used only 6-12+ times per year as a seasonal retreat and has been exceptionally well maintained. While largely original, it is clean, move-in ready, and priced to reflect the opportunity for your personal updates. * * A major bonus is the brand-new roof installed in June 2026 * * .

Key facts

  • Main pool
  • Clubhouse
  • Exercise room

Tags

MOUNTAIN VIEWSCORNER LOTGUARD GATEDCLUBHOUSEEXERCISE ROOMMAIN POOL

Neighborhood map

Property Rental comp Retail Costco Walmart Transit Schools Stadiums Fortune 500 · Circle radius: 6.0 mi
Loading POIs…

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

  • This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $192k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

  • At list price, monthly cash flow is $-91 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
  • To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $179k (6.9% below list).
  • Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $192k).
  • Recommended offer: $179k (6.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
  • Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.9% in Desert Hot Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

  • Location reads 49/100 on livability (#1,149 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing B+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
  • Palm Springs Unified (suburban): math 21% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #328 of 517 in CA (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
  • Zoned schools: Bubbling Wells Elementary (665 students, 97% FRL); Desert Springs Middle (803 students, 99% FRL); Desert Hot Springs High (math 27% / reading 52%, grade F, #532 of 1,170 statewide, top 48%, 1,742 students, 98% FRL) — zoned schools average 98% FRL vs 73% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
  • Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 626 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 74d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 79% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
  • This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($54k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

  • Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
  • Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

  • It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($186k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
  • 6 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

  • Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Recommended offer $178,794 (6.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

  1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
  2. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
  3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
  4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
  5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
  6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
  7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
  8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
  9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
  10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule
1.03%
Cap rate
5.72%
Cash-on-cash
-2.04%
DSCR
0.91
GRM
8.1

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp)
$215,229
List price
$192,000
Delta
-10.79%
Verdict
UNDERPRICED
Comps
20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
Address Dist Beds/Ba Sqft Sold Price $/sf Match
15300 Palm Dr #255 0.08mi 3/2.0 1,345 (+0%) 4mo $203,500 $151 93
15300 Palm Dr #119 0.06mi 3/2.0 1,344 (0%) 5mo $220,000 $164 93
15300 Palm Dr #161 0.16mi 2/2.0 (-1) 1,333 (-1%) 3mo $233,000 $175 84
15300 Palm Dr #30 0.03mi 3/2.0 1,248 (-7%) 5mo $200,000 $160 83
15300 Palm Dr #138 0.13mi 2/2.0 (-1) 1,323 (-2%) 5mo $237,000 $179 82
15300 Palm Dr #209 0.19mi 2/2.0 (-1) 1,335 (-1%) 5mo $161,000 $121 81
15300 Palm Dr #35 0.08mi 2/2.0 (-1) 1,430 (+6%) 6mo $105,000 $73 76
15300 Palm Dr #31 0.03mi 2/2.0 (-1) 1,539 (+14%) 0mo $249,000 $162 69
15300 Palm Dr #42 0.11mi 2/2.0 (-1) 1,178 (-12%) 3mo $230,000 $195 67
14777 Palm Dr #186 0.42mi 3/2.0 1,440 (+7%) 4mo $245,000 $170 65
14777 Palm Dr #15 0.41mi 2/2.0 (-1) 1,260 (-6%) 4mo $180,000 $143 62
14777 Palm Dr #38 0.43mi 3/2.0 1,152 (-14%) 1mo $153,000 $133 55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.66% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold
IRR
-18.6%
Equity multiple
0.34×
Total profit
$-35,369
Equity at exit
$28,628
10-year hold
IRR
-9.2%
Equity multiple
0.41×
Total profit
$-31,835
Equity at exit
$16,601

Cash invested: $53,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE)
18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
State California
18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
County
— inherits STATE
City
— inherits STATE
AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.
Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now
20 active · 6 under contract
Months of supply
9.2 mo (11%/mo absorbed)
Median asking
$192,400 ($150/sqft)
Median days on market
90 d
This list price
50% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking
+6.6% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 92240

Home prices YoY
-19.6%
Rents YoY
3.7%
Active inventory
626
Price-to-rent
8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent
$1,981 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I)
$1,007
Tax est. 1.5%
$240 /mo · $2,880/yr
Insurance
$80
HOA
$329
Lot rent leased land?
$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
$416
Net cashflow
$-91

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,096
Max offer price $178,794
Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price -10% $41 -5% $-25 +0% $-91 +5% $-158 +10% $-224
Rent -10% $-248 -5% $-169 +0% $-91 +5% $-13 +10% $65
Rate -1.0pp $5 -0.5pp $-42 base $-91 +0.5pp $-141 +1.0pp $-192

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment
$48,000
Closing costs
$5,760
Reserves months
Total cash needed

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 24 comps

AddressBedsBaths SqftRent$/sqft DOM Units Dist
15300 Palm Dr Desert Hot Springs, CA 3.0 2.0 1458 $2,800 $1.92 93d 1 0.16mi
14777 Palm Dr Desert Hot Springs, CA 4.0 2.0 1573 $1,995 $1.27 93d 1 0.30mi
15553 Avenida Manzana Desert Hot Springs, CA 3.0 2.0 1400 $2,800 $2.00 2d 1 0.47mi
14777 Palm Dr #144 Desert Hot Springs, CA 4.0 2.0 1573 $1,995 $1.27 28d 1 0.49mi
15123 Avenida Ramada Desert Hot Springs, CA 4.0 2.0 1745 $3,000 $1.72 43d 1 0.56mi
13987 El Cajon Dr Desert Hot Springs, CA 3.0 2.0 1215 $2,600 $2.14 57d 1 0.66mi
16111 Avenida Ramada Desert Hot Springs, CA 4.0 2.0 1773 $3,000 $1.69 93d 1 0.68mi
66629 Joseph Way Unit B Desert Hot Springs, CA 4.0 2.0 1200 $2,900 $2.42 73d 1 0.80mi
13615 Sarita Dr #1 Desert Hot Springs, CA 3.0 2.0 1200 $2,800 $2.33 2d 1 0.81mi
13950 West Dr Unit B Desert Hot Springs, CA 2.0 2.0 1008 $1,600 $1.59 51d 1 0.81mi
13648 Mesquite Ave Desert Hot Springs, CA 3.0 2.0 1003 $2,400 $2.39 2d 1 0.83mi
15490 Avenida Rambla Desert Hot Springs, CA 3.0 2.0 1088 $2,500 $2.30 37d 1 0.92mi
15490 Avenue Rambla Unit NA Desert Hot Springs, CA 3.0 2.0 1088 $2,600 $2.39 73d 1 0.92mi
13475 Cuyamaca Dr Unit 1 Desert Hot Springs, CA 3.0 1.0 950 $2,050 $2.16 43d 1 0.98mi
13244 El Cajon Dr Desert Hot Springs, CA 4.0 0.5 1320 $3,200 $2.42 93d 1 1.01mi
16087 Bubbling Wells Rd Desert Hot Springs, CA 3.0 2.0 1850 $5,000 $2.70 93d 1 1.02mi
13715 El Rio Ln Desert Hot Springs, CA 3.0 2.0 1318 $2,450 $1.86 48d 1 1.05mi
13322 El Rio Ln Desert Hot Springs, CA 3.0 2.0 1215 $2,750 $2.26 93d 1 1.18mi
66824 Estrella Ave Desert Hot Springs, CA 2.0 1.0 1000 $1,400 $1.40 36d 1 1.35mi
66985 Estrella Ave Desert Hot Springs, CA 3.0 2.0 1650 $2,900 $1.76 2d 1 1.37mi
66444 Desert View Ave Unit B Desert Hot Springs, CA 3.0 2.0 1294 $2,275 $1.76 93d 1 1.39mi
13437 Cuando Way Desert Hot Springs, CA 4.0 2.5 1853 $3,200 $1.73 93d 1 1.40mi
66369 Buena Vista Ave Apt A Desert Hot Springs, CA 3.0 2.0 931 $1,499 $1.61 93d 1 1.48mi
12920 Maui Way Desert Hot Springs, CA 4.0 2.0 1570 $3,100 $1.97 93d 1 1.50mi

Property features AI

Finance

Other
Located in a senior communityMain entrance on east side of Palm Drive (guard will direct you to space 18)
Financial info
Land lease type: Fee
HOA & community
HOA includes clubhouse, pool, spa, gated community/guard, and greenbelt/parkHOA fee of $329Association allows pets

Exterior

Parking
Attached carport in tandem configuration2 covered parking spaces
Security
Gated community with guard
Utilities
Utilities not specifically listed
Home design
Single-story mobile homeLand included (fee)
Construction
Residential mobile homePart of a community of approximately 300 units
Exterior features
Community poolHas mountain viewGreenbelt/parkClubhouseGated community with guardCommunity spa

Interior

Kitchen
DishwasherGarbage disposalRange/ovenMicrowaveWater line to refrigerator
Bedrooms
Bedrooms not specified
Flooring
Carpeted floorsVinyl floors
Bathrooms
2 full bathrooms
Heating & cooling
Central heatCentral coolingCeiling fan
Interior features
FurnishedBuilt-ins
Laundry & utility
Inside laundry area with washer and dryer

Listing history 50 events

  1. 2026-08-08
    days on market $192,000 Active 38 DOM
  2. 2026-08-06
    days on market $192,000 Active 36 DOM
  3. 2026-08-05
    days on market $192,000 Active 35 DOM
  4. 2026-08-04
    days on market $192,000 Active 34 DOM
  5. 2026-08-03
    days on market $192,000 Active 33 DOM
  6. 2026-07-31
    days on market $192,000 Active 30 DOM
  7. 2026-07-30
    days on market $192,000 Active 28 DOM
  8. 2026-07-28
    days on market $192,000 Active 27 DOM
  9. 2026-07-26
    days on market $192,000 Active 25 DOM
  10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $192,000 Active 23 DOM
  11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $192,000 Active 22 DOM
  12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $192,000 Active 21 DOM
  13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $192,000 Active 20 DOM
  14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $192,000 Active 19 DOM
  15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $192,000 Active 17 DOM
  16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $192,000 Active 16 DOM
  17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $192,000 Active 15 DOM
  18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $192,000 Active 14 DOM
  19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $192,000 Active 13 DOM
  20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $192,000 Active 12 DOM
  21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $192,000 Active 11 DOM
  22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $192,000 Active 10 DOM
  23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $192,000 Active 9 DOM
  24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $192,000 Active 8 DOM
  25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $192,000 Active 6 DOM
  26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $192,000 Active 5 DOM
  27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $192,000 Active 4 DOM
  28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $192,000 Active 3 DOM
  29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $192,000 Active 2 DOM
  30. 2026-07-02
    days on marketlisting id $192,000 Active 1 DOM
  31. 2026-06-30
    days on market $192,000 Active 90 DOM
  32. 2026-06-29
    days on market $192,000 Active 89 DOM
  33. 2026-06-28
    days on market $192,000 Active 88 DOM
  34. 2026-06-27
    days on market $192,000 Active 87 DOM
  35. 2026-06-26
    days on market $192,000 Active 86 DOM
  36. 2026-06-24
    days on market $192,000 Active 84 DOM
  37. 2026-06-22
    days on market $192,000 Active 82 DOM
  38. 2026-06-21
    days on market $192,000 Active 81 DOM
  39. 2026-06-18
    days on market $192,000 Active 78 DOM
  40. 2026-06-17
    days on market $192,000 Active 77 DOM
  41. 2026-06-16
    days on market $192,000 Active 76 DOM
  42. 2026-06-15
    days on market $192,000 Active 75 DOM
  43. 2026-06-13
    days on market $192,000 Active 73 DOM
  44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $192,000 Active 72 DOM
  45. 2026-06-09
    days on market $192,000 Active 69 DOM
  46. 2026-06-08
    days on market $192,000 Active 68 DOM
  47. 2026-06-07
    days on market $192,000 Active 67 DOM
  48. 2026-06-04
    days on market $192,000 Active 64 DOM
  49. 2026-06-03
    days on market $192,000 Active 63 DOM
  50. 2026-06-02
    days on market $192,000 Active 62 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

  • 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
  • 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
  • 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥111°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
  • 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
  • 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 11 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income
$23,766
− Mortgage interest
−$10,755
− Property taxes
−$2,880
− Insurance
−$960
− Repairs & maintenance
−$1,901
− Management
−$1,901
− HOA
−$3,948
− Depreciation
−$5,585
Taxable loss
−$4,165
combined federal + state — saved on this device
Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
+$1,000
After-tax cash flow
$-96/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $6,720–$20,160 screening

This 1988 3-bedroom, 2-bath home is in good condition and ready for a fresh coat of paint and some minor updates to the kitchen and bathrooms. The home is situated on a prime corner lot with great mountain views and is part of a gated community with a resort feel.

Repairs flagged

  • Minor Kitchen flooring — Worn appearance
  • Minor Bathroom flooring — Worn appearance
  • Minor Kitchen cabinetry — Worn appearance
  • Minor Bathroom fixtures — Worn appearance

Value-add opportunities

  • Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint can make a significant difference in the home's appearance and value.
  • Both Replace kitchen flooring — New flooring can improve the home's functionality and appeal.
  • Both Replace bathroom flooring — New flooring can improve the home's functionality and appeal.
  • Both Replace kitchen cabinetry — New cabinetry can improve the home's functionality and appeal.
  • Both Replace bathroom fixtures — New fixtures can improve the home's functionality and appeal.

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 40/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Bubbling Wells Elementary Middle Desert Springs Middle High Desert Hot Springs High F CA #532/1,170 Nat'l #8,293/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District
Palm Springs Unified
NCES district ID
0629550
Math proficiency
21% ▼ -7.00%
Reading proficiency
42% ▬ 0.00%
Median HH income
$43,638
Composite
26.76/100
National rank
#7131
State rank
#328 of 517 in CA
F Composite livability gradescore 49/100

Livability — Desert Hot Springs

Score
49/100
State rank
#1149
US rank
#25774

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime D+ Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place
Desert Hot Springs, CA
County
Riverside County · 2,664,475 people
City population
41,615
Metro
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
Population (ZIP)
41,615
Household income
$54,023
Rent vs Own
43.2% rent · 56.8% own
Severe rent burden
14% of renters

Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025)
2,664,475 people
By 2030
2,802,692 · +5.2%
By 2040
3,050,904 · +14.5%
By 2050
3,256,783 · +22.2%
By 2075
3,655,058 · +37.2%
By 2100
3,766,594 · +41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character
Majority Hispanic (64%)
Race & ethnicity
Hispanic / Latino 64% Two or more races 27% White 23% Black 7% Native American 2% Asian 2%
Hispanic origin (detail)
Mexican 53%
Common ancestry
Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Italian 1%
Foreign-born
27% · Canada, Vietnam
Languages at home
47% English-only · Spanish 50% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

2024 margin
Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
2008→2024 swing
-3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
All cycles
2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

Civics

Price history

10 events — show timeline
  • 2026-07-01 Listed $192,000 TheMLS
  • 2026-04-01 Listed TheMLS
  • 2026-03-18 Price Changed TheMLS
  • 2026-02-04 Relisted TheMLS
  • 2026-01-29 Contingent TheMLS
  • 2025-12-22 Price Changed TheMLS
  • 2025-09-01 Listed TheMLS
  • 2025-05-20 Price Changed TheMLS
  • 2025-05-11 Relisted TheMLS
  • 2025-03-12 Listed TheMLS

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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