Gardenia Plan · Jarrell, TX 76537

$226,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,381 sqft · SingleFamily · 194 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.3/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to the Gardenia floor plan, a beautifully designed two-story home in our Cool Water community in Jarrell, TX. This home spans approximately 1,381 square feet, complete with 3-bedroom, 2.5 bath, and a spacious two-car garage. As you step inside, you're greeted by a welcoming front foyer that seamlessly flows into the open-concept dining, living, and kitchen area, perfect for family gatherings and entertaining guests. The kitchen features a stylish island, providing extra storage space and seating options for added convenience. Upstairs, you'll discover a well-designed layout starting with a dedicated laundry room that includes a shelf for additional storage. To the right of the staircase, two secondary bedrooms each come with their own walk-in closet, offering plenty of storage space. The secondary bathroom features a shower and tub combo and a one-sink vanity, designed for both comfort and practicality. Further down the hallway, the primary bedroom awaits, located towards the front of the home for added privacy. The adjoining primary bathroom offers a two-sink vanity, a standing shower, and a spacious walk-in closet, ensuring you have all the room you need. Discover how the Gardenia can be the perfect place to call home. Contact us today to make it yours!

Key facts

• Gardenia floor plan
• Walk-in closet
• Stylish island

Tags

• GARDENIA FLOOR PLAN
• STYLISH ISLAND
• DEDICATED LAUNDRY ROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• TWO-SINK VANITY
• STANDING SHOWER

🏗️ New construction. The $226,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $288,100.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $227k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-507 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $215k (5.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $188k (17.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $188k (17.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#313 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Jarrell ISD (rural): math 19% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #713 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Jarrell El (math 19% / reading 27%, grade F, #3,277 of 4,322 statewide, top 77%, 785 students, 62% FRL); Jarrell Middle (math 21% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,258 of 1,662 statewide, top 77%, 741 students, 64% FRL); Jarrell H S (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,112 of 1,632 statewide, top 70%, 868 students, 58% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.7%/yr); 1040 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 60d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 7,543 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (1,425 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Williamson County population projected at +69% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 194 days — a 12% lower offer ($200k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $187,891 (17.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 194 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.54%
• DSCR: 0.66
• GRM: 12.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $288,100
• List price: $226,990
• Delta: -21.21%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
165 Star Packer Ln	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,409 (+2%)	0mo	$213,999	$152	80
148 Star Packer Ln	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,409 (+2%)	2mo	$212,999	$151	80
132 Star Packer Ln	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,409 (+2%)	2mo	$211,499	$150	79
136 Star Packer Ln	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,418 (+3%)	1mo	$229,999	$162	79
516 Old Western Pass	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,412 (+2%)	1mo	$228,490	$162	75
229 Brannigan Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,402 (+2%)	2mo	$236,990	$169	74
140 Star Packer Ln	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,273 (-8%)	2mo	$201,999	$159	70
125 Paradise Canyon Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,305 (-6%)	0mo	$269,900	$207	68
101 Captain Dooley Ln	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,305 (-6%)	1mo	$269,900	$207	66
149 Hatari Trl	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,408 (+2%)	1mo	$249,990	$178	61
512 Old Western Pass	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,522 (+10%)	2mo	$230,990	$152	61
125 Hatari Trl	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,501 (+9%)	2mo	$254,990	$170	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -32.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.05×
• Total profit: $-84,432
• Equity at exit: $42,957

10-year hold

• IRR: -60.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.69×
• Total profit: $-136,238
• Equity at exit: $24,910

Cash invested: $80,668 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 96 active · 46 under contract
• Months of supply: 13.1 mo (8%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $245,692 ($160/sqft)
• Median days on market: 83 d
• This list price: 32% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +30.5% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 76537

• Home prices YoY: -14.4%
• Rents YoY: -1.7%
• Active inventory: 1040
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,879 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,511
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$360 /mo · $4,322/yr
• Insurance: −$120
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$395
• Net cashflow: $-507

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,520

Max offer price $214,786

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-308	-5% $-407	+0% $-507	+5% $-606	+10% $-706
Rent	-10% $-655	-5% $-581	+0% $-507	+5% $-432	+10% $-358
Rate	-1.0pp $-362	-0.5pp $-433	base $-507	+0.5pp $-581	+1.0pp $-657

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,025
• Closing costs: $8,643
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
121 Old Stagecoach Rd Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1531	$1,800	$1.18	4d	1	0.19mi
104 Fighting Seabees Run Unit NA Jarrell, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$1,500	$1.67	98d	1	0.20mi
112 Old Stagecoach Rd Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1592	$1,800	$1.13	0d	1	0.21mi
201 Fighting Seabees Run Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,900	$1.14	103d	1	0.24mi
105 McLintock Rd Jarrell, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1773	$2,055	$1.16	0d	1	0.29mi
313 McLintock Rd Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1855	$1,830	$0.99	60d	1	0.29mi
313 McLintock Rd Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1855	$2,000	$1.08	98d	1	0.29mi
153 Star Pass Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1418	$1,700	$1.20	63d	1	0.30mi
149 Star Pass Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1418	$1,700	$1.20	24d	1	0.30mi
137 Star Pass Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1418	$1,700	$1.20	43d	1	0.31mi
360 Brannigan Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1409	$1,700	$1.21	92d	1	0.32mi
113 Star Pass Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1417	$1,500	$1.06	78d	1	0.33mi
221 Barbary Coast Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,650	$1.14	56d	1	0.37mi
125 Paradise Canyon Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1305	$2,095	$1.61	78d	1	0.41mi
216 The Duke Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1413	$1,700	$1.20	77d	1	0.42mi
120 Morrison Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1580	$2,210	$1.40	112d	1	0.45mi
229 Night Riders Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1638	$1,600	$0.98	24d	1	0.47mi
1109 Paradise Canyon Cv Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1851	$1,950	$1.05	0d	1	0.57mi
204 Robert Hightower Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1676	$1,750	$1.04	0d	1	0.74mi
256 El Dorado Rd Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1017	$1,650	$1.62	7d	1	0.74mi
130 Wild Wind Cv Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,835	$1.15	43d	1	0.83mi
252 Wild Wind Trl Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1243	$1,650	$1.33	113d	1	0.85mi
261 Wild Wind Trl Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1845	$1,975	$1.07	0d	1	0.88mi
107 Wild Wind Cv Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1214	$1,700	$1.40	139d	1	0.88mi
154 Hammond Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,799	$1.20	88d	1	0.95mi
604 Rusty DR Lot Rusty Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1737	$1,795	$1.03	24d	1	0.97mi
104 Hellfighters Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1619	$2,000	$1.24	139d	1	0.98mi
516 Taggart Trl Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1761	$1,750	$0.99	10d	1	0.98mi
112 Ragnar Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1251	$1,495	$1.20	115d	1	1.01mi
112 Ragnar Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1251	$1,495	$1.20	112d	1	1.01mi
273 Alcatraz Loop Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1343	$1,700	$1.27	3d	1	1.01mi
241 Alcatraz Loop Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1288	$1,795	$1.39	40d	1	1.03mi
449 Stone Water Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1674	$1,900	$1.14	139d	1	1.04mi
712 Taggart Trl Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1613	$2,000	$1.24	24d	1	1.07mi
409 Stone Water Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1510	$1,800	$1.19	24d	1	1.09mi
701 Taggart Trl Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1251	$1,650	$1.32	0d	1	1.11mi
583 Taggart Trl Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1613	$1,850	$1.15	10d	1	1.12mi
621 Xanadu Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1586	$1,750	$1.10	100d	1	1.14mi
744 Xanadu Dr Unit 53K Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1764	$1,750	$0.99	64d	1	1.14mi
137 Kellys Heroes Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1214	$1,695	$1.40	139d	1	1.15mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $226,990 Active 194 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $226,990 Active 193 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $226,990 Active 192 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $226,990 Active 191 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $226,990 Active 190 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $226,990 Active 189 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $226,990 Active 188 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $226,990 Active 187 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $226,990 Active 186 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $226,990 Active 185 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $226,990 Active 184 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $226,990 Active 183 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $226,990 Active 182 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $226,990 Active 181 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $226,990 Active 175 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $226,990 Active 174 DOM
17. 2026-09-03
    days on market $226,990 Active 173 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $226,990 Active 170 DOM
19. 2026-08-30
    days on market $226,990 Active 169 DOM
20. 2026-08-29
    days on market $226,990 Active 168 DOM
21. 2026-08-28
    days on market $226,990 Active 167 DOM
22. 2026-08-27
    days on market $226,990 Active 166 DOM
23. 2026-08-26
    days on market $226,990 Active 165 DOM
24. 2026-08-25
    days on market $226,990 Active 164 DOM
25. 2026-08-24
    days on market $226,990 Active 163 DOM
26. 2026-08-23
    days on market $226,990 Active 162 DOM
27. 2026-08-22
    days on market $226,990 Active 161 DOM
28. 2026-08-21
    days on market $226,990 Active 160 DOM
29. 2026-08-20
    days on market $226,990 Active 159 DOM
30. 2026-08-19
    days on market $226,990 Active 158 DOM
31. 2026-08-18
    days on market $226,990 Active 157 DOM
32. 2026-08-17
    days on market $226,990 Active 156 DOM
33. 2026-08-16
    days on market $226,990 Active 155 DOM
34. 2026-08-15
    days on market $226,990 Active 154 DOM
35. 2026-08-14
    days on market $226,990 Active 153 DOM
36. 2026-08-13
    days on market $226,990 Active 152 DOM
37. 2026-08-11
    days on market $226,990 Active 150 DOM
38. 2026-08-10
    days on market $226,990 Active 149 DOM
39. 2026-08-09
    days on market $226,990 Active 148 DOM
40. 2026-08-08
    days on market $226,990 Active 147 DOM
41. 2026-08-06
    days on market $226,990 Active 145 DOM
42. 2026-08-05
    days on market $226,990 Active 144 DOM
43. 2026-08-04
    days on market $226,990 Active 143 DOM
44. 2026-08-03
    days on market $226,990 Active 142 DOM
45. 2026-07-31
    days on market $226,990 Active 139 DOM
46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $226,990 Active 138 DOM
47. 2026-07-30
    days on market $226,990 Active 137 DOM
48. 2026-07-28
    days on market $226,990 Active 136 DOM
49. 2026-07-26
    days on market $226,990 Active 134 DOM
50. 2026-07-24
    days on market $226,990 Active 132 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,547
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,138
• − Property taxes: −$4,322
• − Insurance: −$1,441
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,804
• − Management: −$1,804
• − Depreciation: −$8,381
• Taxable loss: −$11,342
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,722
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,358/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $6,905–$20,715 screening

This Gardenia Plan home in Sonterra, TX is in excellent condition with a good condition score of 80. It is move-in ready with minimal cosmetic improvements needed to enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Resale Kitchen backsplash — Improves kitchen functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Resale Bathroom vanity and fixtures — Enhances bathroom functionality and aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 26/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Jarrell El F TX #3,277/4,322 Nat'l #31,702/41,679 Middle Jarrell Middle F TX #1,258/1,662 Nat'l #10,338/14,009 High Jarrell H S F TX #1,112/1,632 Nat'l #11,215/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jarrell ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824600
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $57,132
• Composite: 21.47/100
• National rank: #8335
• State rank: #713 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 71/100

Livability — Jarrell

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #313
• US rank: #7020

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Williamson County · 699,027 people
• City population: 16,272
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 16,272
• Household income: $98,199
• Rent vs Own: 20.5% rent · 79.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 6% of renters

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Population outlook (Williamson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 699,027 people
• By 2030: 795,537 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 990,683 · +41.7%
• By 2050: 1,184,292 · +69.4%
• By 2075: 1,623,825 · +132.3%
• By 2100: 1,924,153 · +175.3%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 14% Black 7% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 26% Chinese 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Williamson

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 50.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +10.6pp toward D · 2008: -13.0pp · 2024: -2.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.5 2020: D+1.4 2016: R+9.9 2012: R+21.5 2008: R+13.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.03%
• Current HPI: 184.8935
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.73%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-14 Listed $226,990 Zillow