Gardenia Plan · Sonterra, TX 76537

$226,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,381 sqft · SingleFamily · 99 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.8/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to the Gardenia floor plan, a beautifully designed two-story home in our Cool Water community in Jarrell, TX. This home spans approximately 1,381 square feet, complete with 3-bedroom, 2.5 bath, and a spacious two-car garage. As you step inside, you're greeted by a welcoming front foyer that seamlessly flows into the open-concept dining, living, and kitchen area, perfect for family gatherings and entertaining guests. The kitchen features a stylish island, providing extra storage space and seating options for added convenience. Upstairs, you'll discover a well-designed layout starting with a dedicated laundry room that includes a shelf for additional storage. To the right of the staircase, two secondary bedrooms each come with their own walk-in closet, offering plenty of storage space. The secondary bathroom features a shower and tub combo and a one-sink vanity, designed for both comfort and practicality. Further down the hallway, the primary bedroom awaits, located towards the front of the home for added privacy. The adjoining primary bathroom offers a two-sink vanity, a standing shower, and a spacious walk-in closet, ensuring you have all the room you need. Discover how the Gardenia can be the perfect place to call home. Contact us today to make it yours!

Key facts

• Gardenia floor plan
• Walk-in closet
• Stylish island

Tags

• GARDENIA FLOOR PLAN
• STYLISH ISLAND
• DEDICATED LAUNDRY ROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• TWO-SINK VANITY
• STANDING SHOWER

🏗️ New construction. The $226,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $278,700.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $227k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-434 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $216k (4.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $189k (16.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $189k (16.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Jarrell ISD (rural): math 19% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #713 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Jarrell El (math 19% / reading 27%, grade F, #3,277 of 4,322 statewide, top 77%, 785 students, 62% FRL); Jarrell Middle (math 21% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,258 of 1,662 statewide, top 77%, 741 students, 64% FRL); Jarrell H S (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,112 of 1,632 statewide, top 70%, 868 students, 58% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.7%/yr); 773 active listings in the ZIP; 34 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 7,543 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (1,425 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Williamson County population projected at +69% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 99 days — a 9% lower offer ($207k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $188,902 (16.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 99 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.43%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.67%
• DSCR: 0.70
• GRM: 12.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $278,700
• List price: $226,990
• Delta: -18.55%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
149 Starpacker Ln	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,418 (+3%)	0mo	$204,999	$145	79
360 Brannigan Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,409 (+2%)	1mo	$216,999	$154	79
141 Starpacker Ln	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,418 (+3%)	1mo	$204,999	$145	78
129 Starpacker Ln	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,418 (+3%)	1mo	$218,999	$154	78
125 Starpacker Ln	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,409 (+2%)	3mo	$227,990	$162	77
364 Brannigan Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,418 (+3%)	3mo	$218,990	$154	76
113 Starpacker Ln	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,418 (+3%)	3mo	$226,990	$160	75
109 Starpacker Ln	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,409 (+2%)	4mo	$239,990	$170	75
117 Starpacker Ln	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,273 (-8%)	1mo	$201,999	$159	69
117 Morrison Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,305 (-6%)	4mo	$232,900	$178	64
505 Yellow Ribbon Trl	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,252 (-9%)	2mo	$279,900	$224	54
129 Morrison Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,580 (+14%)	2mo	$252,900	$160	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -31.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.00×
• Total profit: $-78,292
• Equity at exit: $41,555

10-year hold

• IRR: -55.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.60×
• Total profit: $-125,023
• Equity at exit: $24,097

Cash invested: $78,036 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76537

• Home prices YoY: -14.4%
• Rents YoY: -1.7%
• Active inventory: 773
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,889 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,462
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$348 /mo · $4,180/yr
• Insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$397
• Net cashflow: $-434

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,438

Max offer price $215,942

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-241	-5% $-337	+0% $-434	+5% $-530	+10% $-626
Rent	-10% $-583	-5% $-508	+0% $-434	+5% $-359	+10% $-284
Rate	-1.0pp $-293	-0.5pp $-363	base $-434	+0.5pp $-506	+1.0pp $-579

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,675
• Closing costs: $8,361
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 34 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
121 Old Stagecoach Rd Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1531	$1,800	$1.18	45d	1	0.19mi
104 Fighting Seabees Run Unit NA Jarrell, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$1,500	$1.67	4d	1	0.20mi
201 Fighting Seabees Run Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,900	$1.14	9d	1	0.24mi
105 McLintock Rd Jarrell, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1773	$2,055	$1.16	0d	1	0.29mi
313 McLintock Rd Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1855	$2,000	$1.08	4d	1	0.29mi
360 Brannigan Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1409	$1,700	$1.21	0d	1	0.32mi
221 Barbary Coast Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,750	$1.21	0d	1	0.37mi
120 Morrison Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1580	$2,210	$1.40	18d	1	0.45mi
252 Wild Wind Trl Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1243	$1,650	$1.33	19d	1	0.85mi
107 Wild Wind Cv Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1214	$1,700	$1.40	45d	1	0.88mi
154 Hammond Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,900	$1.27	4d	1	0.95mi
104 Hellfighters Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1619	$2,000	$1.24	45d	1	0.98mi
112 Ragnar Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1251	$1,495	$1.20	18d	1	1.01mi
112 Ragnar Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1251	$1,495	$1.20	21d	1	1.01mi
241 Alcatraz Loop Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1288	$1,895	$1.47	19d	1	1.03mi
449 Stone Water Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1674	$1,900	$1.14	45d	1	1.04mi
621 Xanadu Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1586	$1,750	$1.10	6d	1	1.14mi
137 Kellys Heroes Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1214	$1,695	$1.40	45d	1	1.15mi
125 Kellys Heroes Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1641	$1,650	$1.01	45d	1	1.16mi
149 Vulcan Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,799	$1.24	25d	1	1.26mi
117 Galaxy Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1276	$1,650	$1.29	22d	1	1.29mi
600 Shimek St Unit 19A Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1357	$1,650	$1.22	19d	1	1.31mi
873 Circle Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,650	$1.14	16d	1	1.31mi
1100 Jackson Ln Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.5	1839	$1,745	$0.95	6d	1	1.39mi
324 Circle Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1661	$1,650	$0.99	12d	1	1.39mi
104 Perfect World Loop Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1751	$1,885	$1.08	6d	1	1.40mi
104 Perfect World Loop Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1751	$1,885	$1.08	4d	1	1.40mi
637 The Ugly Way Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1688	$1,795	$1.06	45d	1	1.42mi
504 Wyatt Way Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1612	$1,895	$1.18	19d	1	1.42mi
508 Wyatt Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,800	$1.20	45d	1	1.43mi
340 The Bad Way Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1616	$1,695	$1.05	45d	1	1.44mi
340 The Bad Way Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1616	$1,695	$1.05	25d	1	1.44mi
244 Circle Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1242	$1,545	$1.24	21d	1	1.45mi
420 Perfect World Loop Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1242	$1,500	$1.21	6d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $226,990 Active 99 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $226,990 Active 96 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $226,990 Active 95 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $226,990 Active 94 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $226,990 Active 93 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $226,990 Active 91 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $226,990 Active 87 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $226,990 Active 86 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $226,990 Active 85 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $226,990 Active 82 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $226,990 Active 81 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $226,990 Active 80 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $226,990 Active 79 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $226,990 Active 78 DOM
15. 2026-03-14
    listed $226,990 Active 1283-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1283 chars)

    Welcome to the Gardenia floor plan, a beautifully designed two-story home in our Cool Water community in Jarrell, TX. This home spans approximately 1,381 square feet, complete with 3-bedroom, 2.5 bath, and a spacious two-car garage. As you step inside, you're greeted by a welcoming front foyer that seamlessly flows into the open-concept dining, living, and kitchen area, perfect for family gatherings and entertaining guests. The kitchen features a stylish island, providing extra storage space and seating options for added convenience. Upstairs, you'll discover a well-designed layout starting with a dedicated laundry room that includes a shelf for additional storage. To the right of the staircase, two secondary bedrooms each come with their own walk-in closet, offering plenty of storage space. The secondary bathroom features a shower and tub combo and a one-sink vanity, designed for both comfort and practicality. Further down the hallway, the primary bedroom awaits, located towards the front of the home for added privacy. The adjoining primary bathroom offers a two-sink vanity, a standing shower, and a spacious walk-in closet, ensuring you have all the room you need. Discover how the Gardenia can be the perfect place to call home. Contact us today to make it yours!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,668
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,612
• − Property taxes: −$4,180
• − Insurance: −$1,393
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,813
• − Management: −$1,813
• − Depreciation: −$8,108
• Taxable loss: −$10,252
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,460
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,744/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This Gardenia Plan home in Sonterra, TX is in excellent condition with a good condition score of 80. It is move-in ready with minimal cosmetic improvements needed to enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Resale Kitchen backsplash — Improves kitchen functionality and aesthetics
• Resale Bathroom vanity and fixtures — Enhances bathroom functionality and aesthetics

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Resale Kitchen backsplash — Improves kitchen functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Resale Bathroom vanity and fixtures — Enhances bathroom functionality and aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jarrell ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824600
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $57,132
• Composite: 21.47/100
• National rank: #8335
• State rank: #713 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sonterra

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Williamson County · 680,029 people
• City population: 12,526
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 16,272
• Household income: $98,199
• Rent vs Own: 20.5% rent · 79.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 225.0

Population outlook (Williamson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 699,027 people
• By 2030: 795,537 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 990,683 · +41.7%
• By 2050: 1,184,292 · +69.4%
• By 2075: 1,623,825 · +132.3%
• By 2100: 1,924,153 · +175.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 14% Black 7% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 26% Chinese 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Williamson

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 50.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +10.6pp toward D · 2008: -13.0pp · 2024: -2.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.5 2020: D+1.4 2016: R+9.9 2012: R+21.5 2008: R+13.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.03%
• Current HPI: 184.8935
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.73%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-14 Listed $226,990 Zillow