1807 Melanie Ln · Champaign, IL 61821

$138,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,073 sqft · SingleFamily

Built 1957 6,490 sqft lot Est $144k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.5/30.0
• ARV discount +9.3/15.0
• DSCR +7.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Rent growth +4.8/5.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Sold at List

Key facts

• 6,490 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1957

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $138k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $233 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $138k).
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 3.8% in Champaign — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#44 in IL, #902 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Champaign CUSD 4 (urban): math 24% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #333 of 620 in IL (top 54%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Stratton Elementary School (math 12% / reading 2%, grade F, #1,673 of 2,056 statewide, top 84%, 476 students, 0% FRL); Centennial High School (math 26% / reading 27%, grade F, #241 of 693 statewide, top 35%, 1,444 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 52% district-wide (52 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.3%/yr); 92 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 573 units permitted in Champaign County in 2024 (359 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $954 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Champaign County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $138,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.24%
• DSCR: 1.32
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $143,782
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1902 Garden Hills Dr	0.22mi	3/1.0	1,073 (0%)	1mo	$165,000	$154	89
1511 Paula Dr	0.16mi	3/1.0	1,028 (-4%)	4mo	$177,000	$172	82
1502 Powers Ln	0.37mi	3/1.0	1,080 (+1%)	1mo	$157,500	$146	81
1811 Melanie Ln	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,169 (+9%)	1mo	$125,000	$107	79
1905 Cynthia Dr	0.36mi	3/1.0	1,073 (0%)	5mo	$145,000	$135	79
1503 Garden Hills Dr	0.34mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,080 (+1%)	1mo	$93,000	$86	77
1307 Hedge Rd	0.43mi	3/1.0	1,065 (-1%)	2mo	$129,000	$121	77
15 Hedge Ct	0.29mi	3/1.0	985 (-8%)	4mo	$104,000	$106	70
1521 Hedge Rd	0.26mi	3/1.0	972 (-9%)	4mo	$118,000	$121	69
2504 Campbell Dr	0.56mi	3/1.0	1,050 (-2%)	3mo	$125,000	$119	68
1503 Summit Ridge Rd	0.47mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,048 (-2%)	4mo	$140,000	$134	66
1703 Hedge Rd	0.38mi	3/1.0	925 (-14%)	2mo	$134,000	$145	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.00×
• Total profit: $-50
• Equity at exit: $20,576

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.37×
• Total profit: $53,086
• Equity at exit: $11,932

Cash invested: $38,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 61821

• Home prices YoY: -26.1%
• Rents YoY: 9.3%
• Active inventory: 92
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,418 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$724
• Tax from tax record: −$106 /mo · $1,270/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$298
• Net cashflow: $233

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,123

Max offer price $138,000

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $311	-5% $272	+0% $233	+5% $194	+10% $155
Rent	-10% $121	-5% $177	+0% $233	+5% $289	+10% $345
Rate	-1.0pp $302	-0.5pp $268	base $233	+0.5pp $197	+1.0pp $161

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,500
• Closing costs: $4,140
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1909 Joanne Ln Unit A Champaign, IL	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,350	$1.35	14d	1	0.18mi
1805 Jeanne St Champaign, IL	2.0	1.0	945	$1,175	$1.24	14d	1	0.21mi
1807 Jeanne St Champaign, IL	2.0	1.0	945	$1,175	$1.24	14d	1	0.22mi
2106 Campbell Dr Champaign, IL	3.0	1.0	1040	$1,475	$1.42	14d	1	0.25mi
2000 N Mattis Ave Champaign, IL	1.0–3.0	1.0	900	$1,040	$1.16	14d	1	0.44mi
1005 Francis Dr Unit 2 Champaign, IL	2.0	1.5	800	$895	$1.12	22d	1	0.47mi
1418 Dobbins Dr Champaign, IL	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,780	$1.62	14d	1	0.50mi
2504 Campbell Dr Champaign, IL	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,880	$1.71	14d	1	0.55mi
2002 W Bradley Ave Champaign, IL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	690	$1,495	$2.17	14d	3	0.78mi
910 W Harvard St Champaign, IL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,250	$1.25	45d	1	0.92mi
2404 Clayton Blvd Champaign, IL	2.0	1.0	825	$1,075	$1.30	14d	1	1.15mi
2617 J T Coffman Dr Champaign, IL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	943	$1,290	$1.37	14d	56	1.21mi
2605 J T Coffman Dr Champaign, IL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1002	$1,305	$1.30	14d	6	1.31mi
1113 Laura Dr Champaign, IL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,295	$1.44	22d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-20
   listed $138,000
2. 2026-05-20
   historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,270 · $106/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,201 · $183/mo
• Expected delta: +$931/yr (+$78/mo · 73.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,013
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,730
• − Property taxes: −$1,270
• − Insurance: −$690
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,361
• − Management: −$1,361
• − Depreciation: −$4,015
• Taxable income: $586
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$141
• After-tax cash flow: $2,655/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Champaign CUSD 4
• NCES district ID: 1709420
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $45,797
• Composite: 21.66/100
• National rank: #8281
• State rank: #333 of 620 in IL

Livability — Champaign

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #44
• US rank: #902

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Champaign, IL
• County: Champaign County · 182,148 people
• City population: 96,852
• Metro: Champaign-Urbana, IL
• Population (ZIP): 28,611
• Household income: $70,715
• Rent vs Own: 39.0% rent · 61.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1023.0

Population outlook (Champaign County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 223,848 people
• By 2030: 231,416 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 244,321 · +9.1%
• By 2050: 256,432 · +14.6%
• By 2075: 285,823 · +27.7%
• By 2100: 296,406 · +32.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Black 23% Asian 8% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 5% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Champaign

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.1) · D 61.3% · R 37.2% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.1 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+18.4 2012: D+6.8 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.19%
• Current HPI: 221.1245
• Rent YoY: ▲ 9.29%
• Metro: Champaign-Urbana, IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-20 Listed $138,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,270 · -3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.