4 Owens Dr · Meadow Lake, NM 87031

$239,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,166 sqft · SingleFamily · 3 Days on market

Built 1992 0.35 ac lot $206/sqft · 11% below area Est $270k · 11% under $16/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.8/30.0
• ARV discount +12.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This is a great opportunity to own a 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home featuring a new Mastercool 5000CFM AC installed in 2025.The kitchen includes a pantry and newer appliances, and the washer and dryer are negotiable. The property also offers a finished garage and a large backyard with a covered patio, perfect for children and pets.

Key facts

• Large backyard
• Covered patio
• Finished garage

Tags

• MASTERCOOL 5000CFM AC
• FINISHED GARAGE
• LARGE BACKYARD
• COVERED PATIO

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with an annual fee of $190 covering common areas and road maintenance

Exterior

• Parking: Attached finished garage with garage door opener; 2 garage spaces
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Natural gas connected; Water connected (community/co-op); Sewer connected (septic tank)
• Home design: Single-story home; Faces north; Resale property
• Construction: Frame construction; Pitched roof; Slab foundation; Built by unknown builder
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Patio; Shed(s); Back yard fencing; Sprinklers in rear; Landscaped yard; Few trees

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Free-standing gas range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 three-quarter bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Evaporative cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Pantry; Double pane and insulated windows
• Laundry & utility: Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $329 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $230k (4.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $230k (4.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 48/100 on livability (#306 in NM) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Los Lunas Public Schools (suburban): math 20% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #34 of 95 in NM (top 36%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+33.2%/yr); 562 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 303 units permitted in Valencia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,296/mo this rent would consume 45% of the median local household income ($61k/yr) (locally 602% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Valencia County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $67k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $229,639 (4.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.88%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $270,096
• List price: $239,999
• Delta: -11.14%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4 Owens Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,166 (0%)	0mo	$239,999	$206	100
9 Owens Dr	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,253 (+8%)	8mo	$275,000	$219	79
6 El Tigre Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,178 (+1%)	4mo	$286,500	$243	76
19 Owens Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,299 (+11%)	2mo	$269,900	$208	74
42 Milton Loop	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,182 (+1%)	4mo	$265,000	$224	72
3 Hammond Ct	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,152 (-1%)	20mo	$245,000	$213	71
11 El Tigre Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,097 (-6%)	5mo	$239,900	$219	68
49 Milton Loop	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,081 (-7%)	3mo	$239,900	$222	60
17 Hermanos Loop	0.48mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,274 (+9%)	12mo	$255,000	$200	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-5,853
• Equity at exit: $35,785

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.14×
• Total profit: $76,852
• Equity at exit: $20,751

Cash invested: $67,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 87031

• Home prices YoY: -29.8%
• Rents YoY: 33.2%
• Active inventory: 562
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,296 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,259
• Tax from tax record: −$110 /mo · $1,323/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$16
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$482
• Net cashflow: $329

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,880

Max offer price $239,999

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,000
• Closing costs: $7,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
37 La Ladera Rd Los Lunas, NM	3.0	1.0	1360	$2,000	$1.47	43d	1	0.83mi
14 Calle Guaymas Los Lunas, NM	3.0	2.0	1337	$1,975	$1.48	23d	1	0.88mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $16 · $192/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-09
   status Pending 329-char remark
2. 2026-05-06
   listed $239,999 Active 329-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,323 · $110/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,920 · $160/mo
• Expected delta: +$597/yr (+$50/mo · 45.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,557
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,444
• − Property taxes: −$1,323
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,205
• − Management: −$2,205
• − HOA: −$192
• − Depreciation: −$6,982
• Taxable income: $7
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2
• After-tax cash flow: $3,950/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Los Lunas Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3501680
• Math proficiency: 20% —
• Reading proficiency: 34% —
• Median HH income: $44,438
• Composite: 26.11/100
• National rank: #12724
• State rank: #34 of 95 in NM

Livability — Meadow Lake

• Score: 48/100
• State rank: #306
• US rank: #26141

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Valencia County · 68,779 people
• Metro: Albuquerque, NM
• Population (ZIP): 47,514
• Household income: $60,902
• Rent vs Own: 16.8% rent · 83.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 602.0

Population outlook (Valencia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 73,788 people
• By 2030: 72,101 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 67,930 · -7.9%
• By 2050: 63,191 · -14.4%
• By 2075: 53,644 · -27.3%
• By 2100: 40,882 · -44.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 63% White 30% Two or more races 29% Native American 4% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1% Russian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 27%

Political lean MEDSL · Valencia

• 2024 margin: R (+16.4) · D 40.9% · R 57.3% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.1pp toward R · 2008: 7.7pp · 2024: -16.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.4 2020: R+9.6 2016: R+8.7 2012: D+2.5 2008: D+7.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -85.17%
• Current HPI: 201.0508
• Rent YoY: ▲ 33.16%
• Metro: Albuquerque, NM
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Sold (MLS) — Southwest MLS
• 2026-05-09 Pending — Southwest MLS
• 2026-05-06 Listed $239,999 Southwest MLS

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,323 · +27.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.