133 Lakeshore Ct · Lake Medina Shores, TX 78003

$120,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,050 sqft · Manufactured public records · 611 Days on market

Built 1973 9,016 sqft lot $114/sqft · 16% below area Est $142k · 16% under $6/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.2/30.0
• ARV discount +14.5/15.0
• DSCR +8.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming Hill Country Retreat - Perfect Starter Home or Weekend Getaway! Looking to enjoy life in the Hill Country? This super cute manufactured home might be just what you're looking for! Whether you're a first-time buyer or searching for the ideal weekend escape, this property offers a cozy and inviting atmosphere surrounded by nature. Inside, you'll find a split-bedroom layout that provides extra privacy, along with unique touches like wood barn doors and wood-framed windows that add rustic charm. The walls feature wind coating for added character and comfort. Washer and dryer can be included with the right offer. Please note: the back porch may need to be removed or rebuilt. With mature trees all around, the home feels peaceful and private-perfect for relaxing and recharging. Come see it for yourself and fall in love with the potential! Motivated seller - bring your offers!

Key facts

• 9,016 sq ft lot
• Community pool
• Built 1973

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $270 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $106k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 4.8% in Lake Medina Shores — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,318 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Bandera ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #500 of 826 in TX (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 531 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 57% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 6 units permitted in Bandera County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 611 days — a 12% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 11 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 57% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $105,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 611 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.63%
• DSCR: 1.43
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $142,241
• List price: $120,000
• Delta: -15.64%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
721 Tejas Trl	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,088 (+4%)	2mo	$150,000	$138	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-2,317
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.59×
• Total profit: $19,902
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78003

• Home prices YoY: -14.3%
• Active inventory: 531
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,251 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$33 /mo · $398/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$6
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$263
• Net cashflow: $270

Break-even live

Break-even rent $909

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 73%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
149 Vint Bonner Dr Unit 149V Bandera, TX	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,150	$0.92	24d	1	0.20mi
535 Oak Lawn Dr Unit 4 Bandera, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$1,175	$1.47	24d	1	0.36mi
551 Oak Lawn Dr Unit 2 Bandera, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,250	$1.04	43d	1	0.37mi
241 Brushy Creek Trl Bandera, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,495	$1.25	7d	1	0.69mi
1110 Grandview Cir Bandera, TX	2.0	2.0	1125	$1,750	$1.56	43d	1	0.99mi
161 Water St Unit A Pipe Creek, TX	3.0	2.0	1120	$1,200	$1.07	43d	1	1.33mi
161 Water St Unit B Pipe Creek, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$1,000	$1.11	43d	1	1.33mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $6 · $72/yr

Listing history 47 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 611 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 610 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 609 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 608 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $120,000 Active 606 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $120,000 Active 602 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $120,000 Active 600 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $120,000 Active 597 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $120,000 Active 596 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $120,000 Active 595 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $120,000 Active 594 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $120,000 Active 593 DOM
13. 2024-10-15
    listed $120,000 New 895-char remark

    Show marketing remark (895 chars)

    Charming Hill Country Retreat - Perfect Starter Home or Weekend Getaway! Looking to enjoy life in the Hill Country? This super cute manufactured home might be just what you're looking for! Whether you're a first-time buyer or searching for the ideal weekend escape, this property offers a cozy and inviting atmosphere surrounded by nature. Inside, you'll find a split-bedroom layout that provides extra privacy, along with unique touches like wood barn doors and wood-framed windows that add rustic charm. The walls feature wind coating for added character and comfort. Washer and dryer can be included with the right offer. Please note: the back porch may need to be removed or rebuilt. With mature trees all around, the home feels peaceful and private-perfect for relaxing and recharging. Come see it for yourself and fall in love with the potential! Motivated seller - bring your offers!

14. 2024-06-28
    historical
15. 2023-06-22
    listed $120,000 New
16. 2023-05-16
    historical
17. 2022-10-13
    price $123,500
18. 2022-09-09
    price $126,543
19. 2022-09-09
    price $14,997
20. 2022-05-12
    price $126,543
21. 2021-09-18
    price $112,000
22. 2021-08-05
    price $100,000
23. 2021-07-09
    price $110,000
24. 2021-05-15
    listed $115,000 New
25. 2021-04-26
    historical
26. 2021-03-16
    listed $115,000 New
27. 2019-09-04
    soldstatus
28. 2019-08-29
    soldstatus Sold
29. 2019-08-29
    soldstatus
30. 2019-08-15
    status Pending
31. 2019-08-01
    historical Active Option
32. 2019-07-11
    status Back on Market
33. 2019-07-11
    listed $79,900
34. 2019-07-10
    listed $79,900 New
35. 2019-07-10
    historical
36. 2018-03-29
    soldstatus Sold
37. 2018-03-29
    soldstatus
38. 2018-03-22
    status Pending
39. 2018-03-13
    price $25,000
40. 2018-01-08
    listed $29,000 New
41. 2018-01-02
    listed $25,000
42. 2013-09-09
    historical
43. 2013-07-22
    price $9,999 Price Change
44. 2013-07-18
    status Back on Market
45. 2013-04-10
    historical
46. 2012-02-15
    listed $15,900
47. 1993-03-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $398 · $33/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,196 · $183/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,798/yr (+$150/mo · 451.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 57% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,011
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$398
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,201
• − Management: −$1,201
• − HOA: −$72
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $1,326
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$318
• After-tax cash flow: $2,918/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bandera ISD
• NCES district ID: 4809360
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $48,771
• Composite: 30.61/100
• National rank: #6194
• State rank: #500 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lake Medina Shores

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1318
• US rank: #22715

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Medina Shores, TX
• Population (ZIP): 9,594

Population outlook (Bandera County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 22,614 people
• By 2030: 23,102 · +2.2%
• By 2040: 23,489 · +3.9%
• By 2050: 23,264 · +2.9%
• By 2075: 23,607 · +4.4%
• By 2100: 22,265 · -1.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 15% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Serbian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 14% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bandera

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.9) · D 18.6% · R 80.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.5pp toward R · 2008: -50.4pp · 2024: -61.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.9 2020: R+59.4 2016: R+63.0 2012: R+59.0 2008: R+50.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -35.80%
• Current HPI: 215.0687
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+654.7% since first listed

35 events — show timeline

• 2024-10-15 Listed $120,000 LERA
• 2024-06-28 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2023-06-22 Listed $120,000 LERA
• 2023-05-16 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2022-10-13 Price Changed $123,500 LERA
• 2022-09-09 Price Changed $126,543 LERA
• 2022-09-09 Price Changed $14,997 LERA
• 2022-05-12 Price Changed $126,543 LERA
• 2021-09-18 Price Changed $112,000 LERA
• 2021-08-05 Price Changed $100,000 LERA
• 2021-07-09 Price Changed $110,000 LERA
• 2021-05-15 Listed $115,000 LERA
• 2021-04-26 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2021-03-16 Listed $115,000 LERA
• 2019-09-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-08-29 Sold (MLS) — LERA
• 2019-08-29 Sold (MLS) — KVMLS
• 2019-08-15 Pending — LERA
• 2019-08-01 Contingent — LERA
• 2019-07-11 Relisted — LERA
• 2019-07-11 Listed $79,900 KVMLS
• 2019-07-10 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2019-07-10 Listed $79,900 LERA
• 2018-03-29 Sold (MLS) — LERA
• 2018-03-29 Sold (MLS) — KVMLS
• 2018-03-22 Pending — LERA
• 2018-03-13 Price Changed $25,000 LERA
• 2018-01-08 Listed $29,000 LERA
• 2018-01-02 Listed $25,000 KVMLS
• 2013-09-09 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2013-07-22 Price Changed $9,999 LERA
• 2013-07-18 Relisted — LERA
• 2013-04-10 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2012-02-15 Listed $15,900 LERA
• 1993-03-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $398 · +11.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.