116 Shellbark Ln · Martinsburg, WV 25403

$160,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · SingleFamily public records

Built 1970 1.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.4/30.0
• DSCR +9.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Home original to 1970.

Key facts

• 1 acre lot
• 4 parking spots
• Built 1970

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $416 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 4.0% in Martinsburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#29 in WV, #4,057 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: commute F, employment D-.
• Berkeley County Schools (other): math 21% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #24 of 55 in WV (top 44%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 255 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,460 units permitted in Berkeley County in 2024 (16 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Berkeley County population projected at +25% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $160,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.15%
• DSCR: 1.50
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $337,344
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
608 Artisan Way	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,344 (0%)	3mo	$337,700	$251	66
101 Sentry Ln	0.65mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,248 (-7%)	11mo	$299,990	$240	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.01×
• Total profit: $526
• Equity at exit: $23,857

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.77×
• Total profit: $34,362
• Equity at exit: $13,834

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State West Virginia: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+22
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Landlord-favorable; preempted; minimal protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 25403

• Home prices YoY: -15.2%
• Active inventory: 255
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,755 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$64 /mo · $774/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$369
• Net cashflow: $416

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,228

Max offer price $160,000

Occupancy floor 71%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $507	-5% $462	+0% $416	+5% $371	+10% $326
Rent	-10% $278	-5% $347	+0% $416	+5% $486	+10% $555
Rate	-1.0pp $497	-0.5pp $457	base $416	+0.5pp $375	+1.0pp $333

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
704 Thomas Ln Martinsburg, WV	2.0	1.0	950	$1,300	$1.37	21d	1	1.01mi
700 Thomas Ln Martinsburg, WV	2.0	1.0	900	$1,200	$1.33	21d	1	1.03mi
2615 Delmar Orchard Rd Martinsburg, WV	2.0	2.0	1532	$1,900	$1.24	21d	1	1.17mi
15000 Hood Cir Martinsburg, WV	2.0–3.0	2.0	1206	$1,885	$1.56	14d	9	1.38mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-18
   remarks 22-char remark
2. 2026-06-18
   listed $160,000 Pending

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WV · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $774 · $64/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $944 · $79/mo
• Expected delta: +$170/yr (+$14/mo · 22.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,060
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$774
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,685
• − Management: −$1,685
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable income: $2,499
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$600
• After-tax cash flow: $4,395/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Berkeley County Schools
• NCES district ID: 5400060
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $54,599
• Composite: 26.16/100
• National rank: #7273
• State rank: #24 of 55 in WV

Livability — Martinsburg

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #29
• US rank: #4057

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Berkeley County · 85,235 people
• City population: 55,439
• Metro: Hagerstown-Martinsburg, MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 16,470
• Household income: $87,512
• Rent vs Own: 18.6% rent · 81.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 120.0

Population outlook (Berkeley County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 127,359 people
• By 2030: 134,684 · +5.8%
• By 2040: 148,219 · +16.4%
• By 2050: 159,300 · +25.1%
• By 2075: 179,920 · +41.3%
• By 2100: 183,896 · +44.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 10% Black 8% Two or more races 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Romanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Guatemala, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Berkeley

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+35.8) · D 31.2% · R 67.0% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.8pp toward R · 2008: -13.0pp · 2024: -35.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+35.8 2020: R+31.2 2016: R+37.2 2012: R+21.3 2008: R+13.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -34.15%
• Current HPI: 190.9235
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Hagerstown-Martinsburg, MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-06-18 Listed $160,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $774 · +1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.