The Carlsbad (345) Plan · Waller, TX 77484

$262,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,557 sqft · SingleFamily · 209 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 1% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Appreciation +2.9/10.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• Rent growth +1.6/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Set-up your home office or create a space for guests to feel at home. With four bedrooms, you can customize the Carlsbad's layout to meet your family's needs. In the kitchen, the useful island and large pantry help simplify mealtimes.

Key facts

• Useful island
• Large pantry
• Home office

Tags

• HOME OFFICE
• LARGE PANTRY
• USEFUL ISLAND

🏗️ New construction. The $262,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $280,320.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $263k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-281 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $240k (8.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $210k (20.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $210k (20.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.3% in Waller — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,003 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Waller ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #532 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Evelyn Turlington El (math 46% / reading 45%, grade D-, #1,112 of 4,322 statewide, top 26%, 1,084 students, 69% FRL); Waller J H (math 21% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,279 of 1,662 statewide, top 78%, 899 students, 69% FRL); Waller H S (math 25% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,639 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.8%/yr); 1496 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 71d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 80% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 209 days — a 12% lower offer ($231k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $209,642 (20.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 209 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.30%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $280,320
• List price: $262,990
• Delta: -6.18%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
29207 Dandelion Sky Dr	0.20mi	4/2.0	1,582 (+2%)	0mo	$244,900	$155	88
29238 Farmhouse Estates Dr	0.25mi	4/2.0	1,565 (+0%)	0mo	$238,040	$152	87
29102 Samuel Gardens Ct	0.14mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,426 (-8%)	0mo	$257,590	$181	74
29223 Farmhouse Estates Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,449 (-7%)	1mo	$227,940	$157	71
29127 Dandelion Sky Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,388 (-11%)	0mo	$234,900	$169	69
29226 Farmhouse Estates Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,428 (-8%)	1mo	$244,940	$172	69
29211 Farmhouse Estates Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,414 (-9%)	1mo	$234,090	$166	69
29242 Farmhouse Estates Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,426 (-8%)	0mo	$253,940	$178	67
16822 Spotted Oak Dr	0.75mi	4/2.0	1,644 (+6%)	0mo	$251,990	$153	56
16830 Spotted Oak Dr	0.75mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,474 (-5%)	0mo	$238,990	$162	51
16850 Spotted Oak Dr	0.75mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,474 (-5%)	0mo	$232,991	$158	51
16819 Spotted Oak Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,325 (-15%)	1mo	$203,591	$154	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-69,437
• Equity at exit: $41,797

10-year hold

• IRR: -39.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.36×
• Total profit: $-107,129
• Equity at exit: $24,237

Cash invested: $78,490 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 64 active · 49 under contract
• Months of supply: 3.7 mo (27%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $272,945 ($165/sqft)
• Median days on market: 175 d
• This list price: 41% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +8.8% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77484

• Home prices YoY: -1.0%
• Rents YoY: -3.8%
• Active inventory: 1496
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,096 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,470
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$350 /mo · $4,205/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$440
• Net cashflow: $-281

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,452

Max offer price $239,651

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-87	-5% $-184	+0% $-281	+5% $-378	+10% $-475
Rent	-10% $-447	-5% $-364	+0% $-281	+5% $-198	+10% $-115
Rate	-1.0pp $-140	-0.5pp $-210	base $-281	+0.5pp $-354	+1.0pp $-428

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,080
• Closing costs: $8,410
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16850 Spotted Oak Dr Hockley, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,990	$1.35	4d	1	0.72mi
16722 Old Wagon Way Hockley, TX	4.0	2.0	1880	$1,790	$0.95	93d	1	0.82mi
16315 Mesquite Field Dr Hockley, TX	4.0	2.0	1500	$2,600	$1.73	93d	1	1.18mi
17222 King Eider Rd Waller, TX	4.0	2.5	2178	$1,935	$0.89	54d	1	1.20mi
17119 King Eider Rd Waller, TX	4.0	2.5	1994	$1,900	$0.95	71d	1	1.26mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $262,990 Active 209 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $262,990 Active 207 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $262,990 Active 206 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $262,990 Active 205 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $262,990 Active 204 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $262,990 Active 201 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $262,990 Active 199 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $262,990 Active 198 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $262,990 Active 196 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $262,990 Active 194 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $262,990 Active 193 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $262,990 Active 192 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $262,990 Active 191 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $262,990 Active 190 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $262,990 Active 187 DOM
16. 2026-07-16
    days on market $262,990 Active 186 DOM
17. 2026-07-15
    days on market $262,990 Active 185 DOM
18. 2026-07-14
    days on market $262,990 Active 184 DOM
19. 2026-07-13
    days on market $262,990 Active 183 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $262,990 Active 182 DOM
21. 2026-07-11
    days on market $262,990 Active 181 DOM
22. 2026-07-10
    days on market $262,990 Active 180 DOM
23. 2026-07-09
    days on market $262,990 Active 179 DOM
24. 2026-07-07
    days on market $262,990 Active 177 DOM
25. 2026-07-06
    days on market $262,990 Active 176 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $262,990 Active 175 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $262,990 Active 174 DOM
28. 2026-07-03
    days on market $262,990 Active 173 DOM
29. 2026-07-02
    days on market $262,990 Active 172 DOM
30. 2026-07-01
    days on market $262,990 Active 171 DOM
31. 2026-06-30
    days on market $262,990 Active 170 DOM
32. 2026-06-29
    days on market $262,990 Active 169 DOM
33. 2026-06-28
    days on market $262,990 Active 168 DOM
34. 2026-06-27
    days on market $262,990 Active 167 DOM
35. 2026-06-26
    pricedays on market $262,990 Active 166 DOM
36. 2026-06-24
    pricedays on market $238,040 Active 164 DOM
37. 2026-06-21
    days on market $258,040 Active 161 DOM
38. 2026-06-18
    days on market $258,040 Active 158 DOM
39. 2026-06-17
    days on market $258,040 Active 157 DOM
40. 2026-06-16
    days on market $258,040 Active 156 DOM
41. 2026-06-15
    days on market $258,040 Active 155 DOM
42. 2026-06-13
    days on market $258,040 Active 153 DOM
43. 2026-06-09
    days on market $258,040 Active 149 DOM
44. 2026-06-08
    days on market $258,040 Active 148 DOM
45. 2026-06-07
    days on market $258,040 Active 147 DOM
46. 2026-06-04
    days on market $258,040 Active 144 DOM
47. 2026-06-03
    pricedays on market $258,040 Active 143 DOM
48. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $256,040 Active 142 DOM
49. 2026-06-01
    days on market $250,040 Active 141 DOM
50. 2026-05-31
    days on market $250,040 Active 140 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,157
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,702
• − Property taxes: −$4,205
• − Insurance: −$1,402
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,013
• − Management: −$2,013
• − Depreciation: −$8,155
• Taxable loss: −$8,332
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,000
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,373/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a good return on investment with updates that can significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms and kitchen — Modern flooring improves aesthetics and functionality ↑
• Both New kitchen appliances — Modern appliances enhance functionality and appeal ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 35/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Evelyn Turlington El D- TX #1,112/4,322 Nat'l #15,746/41,679 Middle Waller J H F TX #1,279/1,662 Nat'l #10,474/14,009

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waller ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844430
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $58,911
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6593
• State rank: #532 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 61/100

Livability — Waller

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1003
• US rank: #17792

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D- Housing A- Health & safety C User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 5,571,493 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,348
• Household income: $81,250
• Rent vs Own: 26.4% rent · 73.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 21% of renters

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Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 24% Arabic 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -4.17%
• Current HPI: 397.85
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.77%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-1.1% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Price Changed $260,040 Zillow
• 2026-05-09 Price Changed $259,040 Zillow
• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $266,040 Zillow
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $262,040 Zillow
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $241,040 Zillow
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $258,040 Zillow
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $241,040 Zillow
• 2026-02-24 Price Changed $263,040 Zillow
• 2026-02-06 Price Changed $253,040 Zillow
• 2026-01-11 Listed $263,040 Zillow