18218 Paradise Mountain Rd #129 · Valley Center, CA 92082

$100,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,536 sqft · Manufactured · 321 Days on market

Built 1974 $65/sqft · 57% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Amazing Price - Beautiful Gated Retirement Living (55+) with a Private Executive SGCA Approved 18-hole Golf Course. This 2Bd/2Ba home offers a semi circular driveway, covered parking and large covered front porch. Enter into the spacious open living area with electric fireplace and newer carpeting, dining room and kitchen. The roomy Master Bedroom has 2 mirrored wardrobes and an enclosed patio room (not in sqft) (See Suppl. ). for additional sitting area, hobby room or??? Fully landscaped front & rear yards, covered patio in rear yard with beautiful sitting areas, covered work space behind the carport perfect for all your outdoor projects. Skyline Ranch community includes swimming pool, clubhouse, gym and more all in a beautifully maintained gated community.

Key facts

• 9 hole golf course
• Covered parking
• Private community

Tags

• PRIVATE COMMUNITY
• 9 HOLE GOLF COURSE
• SEMI CIRCULAR DRIVEWAY
• COVERED PARKING
• LARGE COVERED FRONT PORCH
• SPACIOUS OPEN LIVING AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($23k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 29.5% vs local median 2.5% in Valley Center — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#1,017 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing B; Watch: commute C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Valley Center-Pauma Unified (rural): math 16% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #367 of 517 in CA (top 71%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 165 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($127k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 321 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 24y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $48k (33%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $65k; list at $100k implies a 54% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $88,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 321 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 29.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 82.92%
• DSCR: 4.69
• GRM: 2.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $232,450
• List price: $100,000
• Delta: -56.98%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 150	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,536 (0%)	8mo	$267,500	$174	88
18218 Paradise Mountaind Rd #174	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,532 (-0%)	10mo	$149,000	$97	86
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 79	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,530 (-0%)	10mo	$115,000	$75	85
18218 Paradise Mtn Spc 47	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,560 (+2%)	12mo	$100,000	$64	82
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 105	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-6%)	12mo	$89,500	$62	79
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 145	0.03mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-6%)	14mo	$165,000	$115	77
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 11	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,560 (+2%)	21mo	$180,000	$115	75
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd #144	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,680 (+9%)	12mo	$170,000	$101	74
18218 S PARADISE MOUNTAIN RD SPC 109	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-6%)	12mo	$140,000	$97	73
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 10	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,306 (-15%)	9mo	$255,000	$195	68
18218 Paradise Mtn Rd #59	0.37mi	2/2.0	1,680 (+9%)	3mo	$249,900	$149	65
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd #7	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,355 (-12%)	21mo	$92,000	$68	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 83.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.82×
• Total profit: $107,073
• Equity at exit: $14,910

10-year hold

• IRR: 86.5%
• Equity multiple: 10.00×
• Total profit: $252,115
• Equity at exit: $8,646

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92082

• Active inventory: 165
• Price-to-rent: 2.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,324 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$125 /mo · $1,500/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$698
• Net cashflow: $1,935

Break-even live

Break-even rent $875

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 37%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $2,004	-5% $1,969	+0% $1,935	+5% $1,900	+10% $1,866
Rent	-10% $1,672	-5% $1,803	+0% $1,935	+5% $2,066	+10% $2,197
Rate	-1.0pp $1,985	-0.5pp $1,960	base $1,935	+0.5pp $1,909	+1.0pp $1,882

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 45 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $100,000 Active 321 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $100,000 Active 320 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $100,000 Active 319 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $100,000 Active 318 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $100,000 Active 316 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $100,000 Active 315 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $100,000 Active 312 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $100,000 Active 311 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $100,000 Active 310 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $100,000 Active 307 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $100,000 Active 306 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $100,000 Active 305 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $100,000 Active 304 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $100,000 Active 303 DOM
15. 2026-05-07
    price $100,000 774-char remark

    Show marketing remark (774 chars)

    Amazing Price - Beautiful Gated Retirement Living (55+) with a Private Executive SGCA Approved 18-hole Golf Course. This 2Bd/2Ba home offers a semi circular driveway, covered parking and large covered front porch. Enter into the spacious open living area with electric fireplace and newer carpeting, dining room and kitchen. The roomy Master Bedroom has 2 mirrored wardrobes and an enclosed patio room (not in sqft) (See Suppl. ). for additional sitting area, hobby room or??? Fully landscaped front & rear yards, covered patio in rear yard with beautiful sitting areas, covered work space behind the carport perfect for all your outdoor projects. Skyline Ranch community includes swimming pool, clubhouse, gym and more all in a beautifully maintained gated community.

16. 2026-01-03
    price $124,000 774-char remark

    Show marketing remark (774 chars)

    Amazing Price - Beautiful Gated Retirement Living (55+) with a Private Executive SGCA Approved 18-hole Golf Course. This 2Bd/2Ba home offers a semi circular driveway, covered parking and large covered front porch. Enter into the spacious open living area with electric fireplace and newer carpeting, dining room and kitchen. The roomy Master Bedroom has 2 mirrored wardrobes and an enclosed patio room (not in sqft) (See Suppl. ). for additional sitting area, hobby room or??? Fully landscaped front & rear yards, covered patio in rear yard with beautiful sitting areas, covered work space behind the carport perfect for all your outdoor projects. Skyline Ranch community includes swimming pool, clubhouse, gym and more all in a beautifully maintained gated community.

17. 2025-09-30
    price $130,000 774-char remark

    Show marketing remark (774 chars)

    Amazing Price - Beautiful Gated Retirement Living (55+) with a Private Executive SGCA Approved 18-hole Golf Course. This 2Bd/2Ba home offers a semi circular driveway, covered parking and large covered front porch. Enter into the spacious open living area with electric fireplace and newer carpeting, dining room and kitchen. The roomy Master Bedroom has 2 mirrored wardrobes and an enclosed patio room (not in sqft) (See Suppl. ). for additional sitting area, hobby room or??? Fully landscaped front & rear yards, covered patio in rear yard with beautiful sitting areas, covered work space behind the carport perfect for all your outdoor projects. Skyline Ranch community includes swimming pool, clubhouse, gym and more all in a beautifully maintained gated community.

18. 2025-08-01
    listed $148,500 Active 774-char remark

    Show marketing remark (774 chars)

    Amazing Price - Beautiful Gated Retirement Living (55+) with a Private Executive SGCA Approved 18-hole Golf Course. This 2Bd/2Ba home offers a semi circular driveway, covered parking and large covered front porch. Enter into the spacious open living area with electric fireplace and newer carpeting, dining room and kitchen. The roomy Master Bedroom has 2 mirrored wardrobes and an enclosed patio room (not in sqft) (See Suppl. ). for additional sitting area, hobby room or??? Fully landscaped front & rear yards, covered patio in rear yard with beautiful sitting areas, covered work space behind the carport perfect for all your outdoor projects. Skyline Ranch community includes swimming pool, clubhouse, gym and more all in a beautifully maintained gated community.

19. 2025-08-01
    historical

    Show marketing remark (774 chars)

    Amazing Price - Beautiful Gated Retirement Living (55+) with a Private Executive SGCA Approved 18-hole Golf Course. This 2Bd/2Ba home offers a semi circular driveway, covered parking and large covered front porch. Enter into the spacious open living area with electric fireplace and newer carpeting, dining room and kitchen. The roomy Master Bedroom has 2 mirrored wardrobes and an enclosed patio room (not in sqft) (See Suppl. ). for additional sitting area, hobby room or??? Fully landscaped front & rear yards, covered patio in rear yard with beautiful sitting areas, covered work space behind the carport perfect for all your outdoor projects. Skyline Ranch community includes swimming pool, clubhouse, gym and more all in a beautifully maintained gated community.

20. 2025-07-10
    price $148,500
21. 2025-05-02
    price $155,000
22. 2025-04-04
    price $158,900
23. 2025-02-26
    price $164,900
24. 2025-01-24
    listed $169,900 Active
25. 2025-01-20
    historical
26. 2024-07-19
    listed $173,000 Active
27. 2020-10-25
    historical
28. 2020-10-17
    historical Active Under Contract
29. 2020-09-26
    listed $140,000 Active
30. 2018-12-22
    status Pending Sale
31. 2018-09-07
    status Pending
32. 2018-09-07
    soldstatus $65,000 Closed Sale
33. 2018-09-07
    soldstatus $65,000 Closed Sale
34. 2018-09-07
    soldstatus $65,000 Sold
35. 2018-09-05
    historical
36. 2018-08-22
    status Back On Market
37. 2018-08-04
    status Pending
38. 2018-06-26
    price $69,900
39. 2018-05-29
    price $79,900
40. 2018-01-18
    listed $69,900
41. 2018-01-18
    listed $89,900 Active
42. 2002-07-18
    historical
43. 2002-07-18
    historical
44. 2002-06-28
    listed $84,900
45. 2002-06-28
    listed $84,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 1 d/yr ≥97°F today · 3 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 10 unhealthy d/yr today · 12 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,886
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$1,500
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,191
• − Management: −$3,191
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $22,994
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$5,519
• After-tax cash flow: $17,699/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Valley Center-Pauma Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600069
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $74,438
• Composite: 24.32/100
• National rank: #7705
• State rank: #367 of 517 in CA

Livability — Valley Center

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #1017
• US rank: #24938

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C- Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: San Diego County · 3,178,799 people
• City population: 21,727
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• Population (ZIP): 21,727
• Household income: $126,544
• Rent vs Own: 11.7% rent · 88.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 241.0

Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
• By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
• By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 23% Native American 4% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 33%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 22% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

• 2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -293.00%
• Current HPI: 294.6017
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+17.8% since first listed

31 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $100,000 SDMLS
• 2026-01-03 Price Changed $124,000 SDMLS
• 2025-09-30 Price Changed $130,000 SDMLS
• 2025-08-01 Listed $148,500 SDMLS
• 2025-08-01 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2025-07-10 Price Changed $148,500 SDMLS
• 2025-05-02 Price Changed $155,000 SDMLS
• 2025-04-04 Price Changed $158,900 SDMLS
• 2025-02-26 Price Changed $164,900 SDMLS
• 2025-01-24 Listed $169,900 SDMLS
• 2025-01-20 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2024-07-19 Listed $173,000 CRMLS
• 2020-10-25 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2020-10-17 Contingent — CRMLS
• 2020-09-26 Listed $140,000 CRMLS
• 2018-12-22 Pending — CRMLS
• 2018-09-07 Pending — SDMLS
• 2018-09-07 Sold (MLS) $65,000 SDMLS
• 2018-09-07 Sold (MLS) $65,000 CRMLS
• 2018-09-07 Sold (MLS) $65,000 CRMLS
• 2018-09-05 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2018-08-22 Relisted — SDMLS
• 2018-08-04 Pending — SDMLS
• 2018-06-26 Price Changed $69,900 SDMLS
• 2018-05-29 Price Changed $79,900 SDMLS
• 2018-01-18 Listed $89,900 SDMLS
• 2018-01-18 Listed $69,900 CRMLS
• 2002-07-18 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2002-07-18 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2002-06-28 Listed $84,900 CRMLS
• 2002-06-28 Listed $84,900 SDMLS