4916 Hillock · Milford, MI 48356

$189,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,007 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1954 7,405 sqft lot Est $219k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.6/30.0
• ARV discount +13.6/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.4/5.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath home near White Lake with lake privileges, a fenced backyard, and 10-foot ceilings. Freshly updated with a new roof, furnace, and fresh paint. Close to M-59, US-23, and Alpine Valley, and in the Huron Valley Schools district. Move-in ready!

Key facts

• 7,405 sq ft lot
• Built 1954
• Listed 15 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Gravel road access; Lot roughly 0.17 acres (approx. 50 x 150); White Lake access/privileges

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank sewer; Electrical with circuit breakers
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Ground-level entry; South/West facing (direction not specified)
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Asphalt roof; Built on crawl space
• Exterior features: Porch; Lighting; Fenced backyard; Shed(s); Lake privileges

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Free-standing gas oven; Free-standing refrigerator; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Total of 5 rooms (bedroom count not specified)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); No central air
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Electric water heater; Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $189k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $11 ($136/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $164k (13.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $164k (13.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 1.7% in Milford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 87/100 on livability (#17 in MI, #275 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, employment A+; Watch: commute F.
• Huron Valley Schools (suburban): math 42% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #87 of 540 in MI (top 16%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Spring Mills Elementary School (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #606 of 1,397 statewide, top 48%, 405 students, 36% FRL); White Lake Middle School (math 38% / reading 52%, grade D, #166 of 493 statewide, top 34%, 532 students, 37% FRL); Lakeland High School (math 34% / reading 64%, grade D, #178 of 713 statewide, top 25%, 1,141 students, 26% FRL).
• Market conditions: 63 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,614 units permitted in Oakland County in 2024 (721 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Oakland County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($186k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $75k; list at $189k implies a 152% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $163,926 (13.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.26%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $218,519
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4916 Hillock	0.00mi	2/1.0	1,007 (0%)	1mo	$179,474	$178	99
5275 Lake Grove Dr	0.45mi	2/1.0	1,056 (+5%)	2mo	$242,000	$229	69
4901 Lake Grove Dr	0.40mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,056 (+5%)	4mo	$219,000	$207	65
2976 Giddings Blvd	0.40mi	2/1.0	957 (-5%)	11mo	$207,000	$216	64
4674 Lakeborn Dr	0.56mi	2/1.0	980 (-3%)	10mo	$190,000	$194	61
5691 Lake Grove Dr	0.58mi	3/1.0 (+1)	960 (-5%)	2mo	$225,000	$234	59
5355 Lake Grove Dr	0.48mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,056 (+5%)	7mo	$206,500	$196	58
2895 Golfers Dr	0.56mi	3/1.5 (+1)	972 (-4%)	7mo	$240,000	$247	55
5075 Allingham Dr	0.57mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,068 (+6%)	9mo	$245,000	$229	50
5170 Warmbriar Dr	0.73mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,056 (+5%)	11mo	$244,600	$232	43
2750 Jackson Blvd	0.64mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,130 (+12%)	3mo	$245,000	$217	42
5130 Warmbriar Dr	0.73mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,056 (+5%)	13mo	$220,000	$208	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-29,895
• Equity at exit: $28,181

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-25,060
• Equity at exit: $16,341

Cash invested: $52,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48356

• Active inventory: 63
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,639 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax from tax record: −$214 /mo · $2,566/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$344
• Net cashflow: $11

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,625

Max offer price $189,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $118	-5% $65	+0% $11	+5% $-42	+10% $-96
Rent	-10% $-118	-5% $-53	+0% $11	+5% $76	+10% $141
Rate	-1.0pp $106	-0.5pp $59	base $11	+0.5pp $-38	+1.0pp $-87

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,250
• Closing costs: $5,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3202 Giddings Blvd Highland, MI	3.0	2.0	1302	$1,695	$1.30	16d	1	0.37mi
3202 Giddings Blvd Highland, MI	3.0	2.0	1417	$1,695	$1.20	12d	1	0.37mi
3951 Bentwood Cir W White Lake, MI	3.0	2.0	1456	$1,399	$0.96	0d	1	0.74mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-05-06
   status Pending 267-char remark

   Show marketing remark (267 chars)

   Charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath home near White Lake with lake privileges, a fenced backyard, and 10-foot ceilings. Freshly updated with a new roof, furnace, and fresh paint. Close to M-59, US-23, and Alpine Valley, and in the Huron Valley Schools district. Move-in ready!

2. 2026-05-06
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (267 chars)

   Charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath home near White Lake with lake privileges, a fenced backyard, and 10-foot ceilings. Freshly updated with a new roof, furnace, and fresh paint. Close to M-59, US-23, and Alpine Valley, and in the Huron Valley Schools district. Move-in ready!

3. 2026-04-24
   historical Accepting Backup Offers 267-char remark

   Show marketing remark (267 chars)

   Charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath home near White Lake with lake privileges, a fenced backyard, and 10-foot ceilings. Freshly updated with a new roof, furnace, and fresh paint. Close to M-59, US-23, and Alpine Valley, and in the Huron Valley Schools district. Move-in ready!

4. 2026-04-24
   historical Active Under Contract

   Show marketing remark (267 chars)

   Charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath home near White Lake with lake privileges, a fenced backyard, and 10-foot ceilings. Freshly updated with a new roof, furnace, and fresh paint. Close to M-59, US-23, and Alpine Valley, and in the Huron Valley Schools district. Move-in ready!

5. 2026-04-22
   listed $189,000 Active 267-char remark

   Show marketing remark (267 chars)

   Charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath home near White Lake with lake privileges, a fenced backyard, and 10-foot ceilings. Freshly updated with a new roof, furnace, and fresh paint. Close to M-59, US-23, and Alpine Valley, and in the Huron Valley Schools district. Move-in ready!

6. 2026-04-22
   listed $189,000 Active

   Show marketing remark (267 chars)

   Charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath home near White Lake with lake privileges, a fenced backyard, and 10-foot ceilings. Freshly updated with a new roof, furnace, and fresh paint. Close to M-59, US-23, and Alpine Valley, and in the Huron Valley Schools district. Move-in ready!

7. 2026-04-20
   historical $189,000 267-char remark

   Show marketing remark (267 chars)

   Charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath home near White Lake with lake privileges, a fenced backyard, and 10-foot ceilings. Freshly updated with a new roof, furnace, and fresh paint. Close to M-59, US-23, and Alpine Valley, and in the Huron Valley Schools district. Move-in ready!

8. 2026-02-03
   historical Accepting Backup Offers
9. 2026-02-03
   historical Active Under Contract
10. 2026-02-03
    historical
11. 2026-02-03
    historical
12. 2026-01-06
    price $199,000
13. 2026-01-05
    price $199,000
14. 2025-12-02
    price $214,900
15. 2025-12-01
    price $214,900
16. 2025-11-22
    listed $229,000 Active
17. 2025-11-22
    listed $229,000 Active
18. 2025-11-19
    historical
19. 2003-05-22
    soldstatus $74,925
20. 1995-11-28
    soldstatus $60,000
21. 1989-10-01
    soldstatus $40,000
22. 1987-01-01
    soldstatus $41,000
23. 1978-04-01
    soldstatus $26,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,566 · $214/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,738 · $228/mo
• Expected delta: +$172/yr (+$14/mo · 6.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,671
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,587
• − Property taxes: −$2,566
• − Insurance: −$945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,574
• − Management: −$1,574
• − Depreciation: −$5,498
• Taxable loss: −$3,072
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$737
• After-tax cash flow: $873/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Huron Valley Schools
• NCES district ID: 2618990
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $76,011
• Composite: 44.39/100
• National rank: #2815
• State rank: #87 of 540 in MI

Livability — Milford

• Score: 87/100
• State rank: #17
• US rank: #275

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 8,017

Population outlook (Oakland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,335,747 people
• By 2030: 1,375,100 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 1,435,385 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 1,469,250 · +10.0%
• By 2075: 1,531,946 · +14.7%
• By 2100: 1,450,485 · +8.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 14% Lithuanian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Oakland

• 2024 margin: D (+10.6) · D 54.4% · R 43.8% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: 14.5pp · 2024: 10.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.6 2020: D+14.1 2016: D+8.1 2012: D+8.1 2008: D+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -281.22%
• Current HPI: 193.9468
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+626.9% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-06 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2026-04-24 Contingent — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-24 Contingent — REALCOMP
• 2026-04-22 Listed $189,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-22 Listed $189,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-04-20 Coming Soon $189,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-02-03 Contingent — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-02-03 Contingent — REALCOMP
• 2026-02-03 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2026-02-03 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-01-06 Price Changed $199,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-01-05 Price Changed $199,000 REALCOMP
• 2025-12-02 Price Changed $214,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-12-01 Price Changed $214,900 REALCOMP
• 2025-11-22 Listed $229,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-11-22 Listed $229,000 REALCOMP
• 2025-11-19 Coming Soon — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2003-05-22 Sold (Public Records) $74,925 Public Records
• 1995-11-28 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records
• 1989-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records
• 1987-01-01 Sold (Public Records) $41,000 Public Records
• 1978-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $26,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,566 · +2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.