2567 River Rd · Gasburg, VA 27842

$159,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 644 sqft · Manufactured public records · 142 Days on market

Built 1994 0.51 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.2/30.0
• DSCR +9.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Looking for a very affordable weekend get away that is only 5 minutes from Lake Gaston? In 2019 this single wide home was newly renovated with a new bathroom, walls, floors, appliances, fixtures, and cabinets. The heat is a wall unit and the AC inverter unit is outside. This property is located off of River Road and the NC Wildlife boat ramp is only 1/4 mile west on River Road. What an affordable way to enjoy Lake Gaston!!

Key facts

• New water heater
• New kitchen sink
• 7 privacy fence

Tags

• COMPLETELY REMODELED BATHROOM
• NEW KITCHEN SINK
• NEW WATER HEATER
• 7 PRIVACY FENCE
• GRAVEL CIRCULAR DRIVE-WAY
• TERRACED GRAVEL PARKING SPACE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport; Carport (gravel)
• Utilities: Septic tank
• Home design: Single wide mobile home; Residential property used as residential/vacation; Updated/remodeled
• Construction: Vinyl siding and Masonite exterior; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Garden; Front porch, rear porch and deck; Wood fencing; Storage structure on property; Has view; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Total of 4 rooms (bedrooms and living areas combined)
• Flooring: Carpet; Other flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Cooling present (other type)
• Interior features: Window coverings and insulated windows; Window treatments; Updated/remodeled condition; No fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $456 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $140k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.7% vs local median 1.1% in Gasburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#345 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A, crime A-; Watch: housing C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Northampton County Schools (rural): math 15% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #176 of 178 in NC (top 99%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Northampton County High School (math 2% / reading 17%, grade F, #530 of 535 statewide, top 99%, 240 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 78% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 17 units permitted in Northampton County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (2.5% local appreciation)).
• Northampton County population projected at -40% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 142 days — a 12% lower offer ($140k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $160k implies a 432% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 48% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,360 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 142 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.26%
• DSCR: 1.55
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.55% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.99×
• Total profit: $44,430
• Equity at exit: $67,714

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.73×
• Total profit: $122,143
• Equity at exit: $101,343

Cash invested: $44,660 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27842

• Home prices YoY: 1.3%
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,768 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$836
• Tax from tax record: −$38 /mo · $455/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$371
• Net cashflow: $456

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,191

Max offer price $159,500

Occupancy floor 69%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,875
• Closing costs: $4,785
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-08
   days on market $159,500 Active 142 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   days on market $159,500 Active 141 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $159,500 Active 140 DOM
4. 2026-06-03
   days on market $159,500 Active 137 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $159,500 Active 136 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $159,500 Active 135 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $159,500 Active 134 DOM
8. 2026-05-30
   days on market $159,500 Active 133 DOM
9. 2026-04-17
   price $159,500
10. 2026-01-17
    listed $160,000 Active
11. 2021-01-25
    soldstatus $30,000 427-char remark

    Show marketing remark (427 chars)

    Looking for a very affordable weekend get away that is only 5 minutes from Lake Gaston? In 2019 this single wide home was newly renovated with a new bathroom, walls, floors, appliances, fixtures, and cabinets. The heat is a wall unit and the AC inverter unit is outside. This property is located off of River Road and the NC Wildlife boat ramp is only 1/4 mile west on River Road. What an affordable way to enjoy Lake Gaston!!

12. 2020-08-24
    listed $35,999 427-char remark

    Show marketing remark (427 chars)

    Looking for a very affordable weekend get away that is only 5 minutes from Lake Gaston? In 2019 this single wide home was newly renovated with a new bathroom, walls, floors, appliances, fixtures, and cabinets. The heat is a wall unit and the AC inverter unit is outside. This property is located off of River Road and the NC Wildlife boat ramp is only 1/4 mile west on River Road. What an affordable way to enjoy Lake Gaston!!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $455 · $38/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,308 · $109/mo
• Expected delta: +$853/yr (+$71/mo · 187.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 48% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,220
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,934
• − Property taxes: −$455
• − Insurance: −$798
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,698
• − Management: −$1,698
• − Depreciation: −$4,640
• Taxable income: $2,998
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$719
• After-tax cash flow: $4,754/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Northampton County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3703420
• Math proficiency: 15% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $31,548
• Composite: 13.24/100
• National rank: #9551
• State rank: #176 of 178 in NC

Livability — Gasburg

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #345
• US rank: #13729

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment B+ Housing C- Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,439

Population outlook (Northampton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,395 people
• By 2030: 15,794 · -9.2%
• By 2040: 12,810 · -26.4%
• By 2050: 10,488 · -39.7%
• By 2075: 7,778 · -55.3%
• By 2100: 7,019 · -59.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 24% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Serbian 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Northampton

• 2024 margin: D (+14.5) · D 57.0% · R 42.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: 30.4pp · 2024: 14.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+14.5 2020: D+20.6 2016: D+26.2 2012: D+34.9 2008: D+30.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.55%
• Current HPI: 192.5299
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+343.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $159,500 RVLG
• 2026-01-17 Listed $160,000 RVLG
• 2021-01-25 Sold (MLS) $30,000 RVLG
• 2020-08-24 Listed $35,999 RVLG

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2024): $455 · +6.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.