2619 Francis St · Baltimore, MD 21217

$45,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,156 sqft · Townhouse public records · 76 Days on market

Built 1880 $39/sqft · 27% below area Est $62k · 27% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located in the vibrant Penn North neighborhood, which is experiencing an exciting rebirth, this home is ideal for investors looking to customize and capitalize on a prime location. Don't miss this opportunity to transform this space into something spectacular! Offering 3 bedrooms and 1 full bath, a large living room, separate dining area and a full kitchen, this home is waiting for the next savvy investor.

Key facts

• Built 1880
• Listed 76 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $45k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $938 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $45k).
• Recommended offer: $42k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 31.3% vs local median 6.0% in Baltimore — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in MD, #3,396 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Baltimore City Public Schools (urban): math 7% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #24 of 24 in MD (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.6%/yr); 331 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,273 units permitted in Baltimore city in 2024 (1,104 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,681/mo this rent would consume 53% of the median local household income ($38k/yr) (locally 2921% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $311 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baltimore County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.6% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($42k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $29k; list at $45k implies a 56% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.6% of price; built in 1880 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $42,300 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1880 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.73% ✓
• Cap rate: 31.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 89.37%
• DSCR: 4.98
• GRM: 2.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $61,844
• List price: $45,000
• Delta: -27.24%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1603 Clifton Ave	0.19mi	3/1.0	1,100 (-5%)	2mo	$130,000	$118	81
2818 Woodbrook Ave	0.13mi	3/1.0	1,232 (+7%)	3mo	$45,500	$37	80
2820 Woodbrook Ave	0.13mi	3/1.5	1,232 (+7%)	2mo	$85,000	$69	79
2109 N Fulton Ave N	0.20mi	3/1.0	1,100 (-5%)	4mo	$35,000	$32	79
2418 Etting St	0.27mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,080 (-7%)	4mo	$53,500	$50	69
2311 Orem Ave	0.22mi	3/1.0	1,284 (+11%)	4mo	$35,000	$27	68
1552 N Fulton Ave	0.57mi	3/1.0	1,113 (-4%)	4mo	$125,000	$112	64
1705 N Payson St	0.54mi	3/1.5	1,100 (-5%)	5mo	$38,000	$35	61
1541 N Pulaski St	0.68mi	3/1.0	1,100 (-5%)	3mo	$115,000	$105	58
2418 Druid Hill Ave	0.27mi	3/1.5	1,328 (+15%)	6mo	$77,000	$58	56
1537 N Smallwood St	0.73mi	3/1.5	1,200 (+4%)	3mo	$56,000	$47	55
700 Cumberland St	0.40mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,280 (+11%)	3mo	$107,800	$84	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.63% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 94.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.68×
• Total profit: $58,910
• Equity at exit: $6,710

10-year hold

• IRR: 98.0%
• Equity multiple: 13.44×
• Total profit: $156,686
• Equity at exit: $3,891

Cash invested: $12,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Baltimore: 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+58

Just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21217

• Rents YoY: 6.6%
• Active inventory: 331
• Price-to-rent: 2.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,681 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$236
• Tax from tax record: −$134 /mo · $1,614/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$353
• Net cashflow: $938

Break-even live

Break-even rent $493

Max offer price $45,000

Occupancy floor 39%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,250
• Closing costs: $1,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2505 Woodbrook Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1256	$1,745	$1.39	2d	1	0.11mi
1507 Retreat St Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	3.0	3.0	1098	$2,500	$2.28	43d	1	0.15mi
1515 Retreat St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1098	$1,800	$1.64	23d	1	0.15mi
2636 Pennsylvania Ave Baltimore, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0	846	$956	$1.13	23d	4	0.15mi
2614 Pennsylvania Ave Baltimore, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	982	$1,141	$1.16	4d	4	0.18mi
2231 Orem Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1140	$1,750	$1.54	17d	1	0.23mi
2449 Druid Hill Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,800	$1.64	43d	1	0.24mi
2409 Francis St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1298	$1,500	$1.16	43d	1	0.25mi
2301 Whittier Ave Unit 3 Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	1104	$1,650	$1.49	43d	1	0.25mi
2301 Whittier Ave Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	1104	$1,400	$1.27	43d	1	0.25mi
2301 Whittier Ave Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1104	$1,400	$1.27	43d	1	0.25mi
2433 Druid Hill Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.5	1092	$1,999	$1.83	43d	1	0.26mi
2511 Madison Ave #2 Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,650	$1.50	43d	1	0.28mi
2330 Bryant Ave Unit 4 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	950	$1,500	$1.58	20d	1	0.33mi
1121 Whitelock St Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1180	$1,300	$1.10	43d	1	0.33mi
1624 Westwood Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,900	$1.90	43d	1	0.33mi
1806 N Mount St Baltimore, MD	3.0	3.0	1200	$1,700	$1.42	20d	1	0.34mi
519 Sanford Pl Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,650	$1.27	16d	1	0.38mi
1729 N Fulton Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1081	$1,795	$1.66	43d	1	0.39mi
1606 Gwynns Falls Pkwy Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	748	$1,200	$1.60	23d	1	0.40mi
1930 N Payson St Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	980	$1,500	$1.53	23d	1	0.40mi
3401 Woodbrook Ave Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	900	$1,199	$1.33	23d	1	0.42mi
2339 Eutaw Pl Ste 1 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1300	$1,275	$0.98	43d	1	0.44mi
901 Druid Park Lake Dr Baltimore, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0	681	$1,250	$1.84	43d	1	0.44mi
1722 N Monroe St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1000	$1,350	$1.35	23d	1	0.45mi
1614 N Calhoun St Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	950	$1,300	$1.37	43d	1	0.47mi
1562 N Woodyear St Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.5	788	$1,325	$1.68	23d	1	0.50mi
2143 Druid Hill Ave Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	915	$1,400	$1.53	43d	1	0.50mi
810 Brooks Ln Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	900	$1,350	$1.50	20d	1	0.52mi
2204 Clifton Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1400	$1,450	$1.04	4d	1	0.53mi
1534 N Stricker St Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.5	900	$1,475	$1.64	14d	1	0.53mi
2401 Brookfield Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1102	$1,675	$1.52	23d	3	0.55mi
2407 Brookfield Ave Unit 4 Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	1300	$1,550	$1.19	43d	1	0.56mi
2202 Brookfield Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	980	$1,600	$1.63	43d	1	0.57mi
2037 McCulloh St Unit 3 Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	937	$1,650	$1.76	17d	1	0.59mi
2028 Druid Hill Ave Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.5	1437	$1,750	$1.22	2d	1	0.59mi
2028 Druid Hill Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.5	1437	$1,799	$1.25	10d	1	0.59mi
906 Whitelock St #2 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	800	$1,250	$1.56	4d	1	0.60mi
2402 Lakeview Ave Apt 2 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	900	$1,250	$1.39	12d	1	0.60mi
2016 Linden Ave Unit B Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	700	$1,400	$2.00	23d	1	0.60mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $45,000 Active 76 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $45,000 Active 75 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $45,000 Active 74 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $45,000 Active 73 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $45,000 Active 71 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $75,000 Active 67 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $75,000 Active 66 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $75,000 Active 65 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $75,000 Active 62 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $75,000 Active 61 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $75,000 Active 60 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $75,000 Active 59 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $75,000 Active 58 DOM
14. 2026-04-03
    listed $75,000 Active 409-char remark

    Show marketing remark (409 chars)

    Located in the vibrant Penn North neighborhood, which is experiencing an exciting rebirth, this home is ideal for investors looking to customize and capitalize on a prime location. Don't miss this opportunity to transform this space into something spectacular! Offering 3 bedrooms and 1 full bath, a large living room, separate dining area and a full kitchen, this home is waiting for the next savvy investor.

15. 1994-02-09
    soldstatus $28,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,614 · $134/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,614 · $134/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,166
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,521
• − Property taxes: −$1,614
• − Insurance: −$225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,613
• − Management: −$1,613
• − Depreciation: −$1,309
• Taxable income: $11,271
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,705
• After-tax cash flow: $8,556/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baltimore City Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400090
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $42,108
• Composite: 10.08/100
• National rank: #9805
• State rank: #24 of 24 in MD

Livability — Baltimore

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #3396

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baltimore, MD
• County: Baltimore City · 558,601 people
• City population: 588,727
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 30,792
• Household income: $38,409
• Rent vs Own: 70.0% rent · 30.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 2921.0

Population outlook (Baltimore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 624,249 people
• By 2030: 621,541 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 609,756 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 597,249 · -4.3%
• By 2075: 552,236 · -11.5%
• By 2100: 513,934 · -17.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 81% White 12% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Hispanic 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baltimore

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+73.0) · D 85.2% · R 12.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: 75.5pp · 2024: 73.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+73.0 2020: D+76.6 2016: D+74.6 2012: D+76.4 2008: D+75.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -187.20%
• Current HPI: 104.2102
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.63%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+159.5% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Listed $75,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 1994-02-09 Sold (Public Records) $28,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,614 · +4.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.