25 Chapala Dr · Santa Rosa, CA 95403

$19,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,400 sqft · Manufactured · 7 Days on market

Built 1976

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.6/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

AUCTION . Sale Submit offers please and question VIA EMAIL. 25 Chapala manufactured home offers a spacious layout, great natural light and an excellent opportunity to update and make it your own. PARK APPROVAL REQUIRED FOR OCCUPANCY, NOT REQUIRED FOR REMOVAL. Mobilehome DEALERS WELCOME. SPACE IS UNDER RENT CONTROL. Submit offers via email: [email protected] . A non-binding letter of intent stating price of offer is acceptable initially. Drive by, view the home, submit your offer and you may adjust your offer up or down after viewing. Home will be open for viewing on Monday May 15 from 4pm to 7pm. and 12 to 2:00 sat. and Sun. May20 and 21. Buyer must have cash and the sale is AS-IS. SUBMIT LET

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Built 1976
• Listed 7 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Land lease amount applies
• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Senior community

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces; Guest parking available
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured in park (double wide); Fixer condition; Land lease community
• Construction: Manufacturer: Regal; Make: Regal; Skirting: Unknown
• Exterior features: Front yard; Located on a court

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in electric oven; Built-in refrigerator; Double oven
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; No air conditioning
• Interior features: Built-in electric oven; Built-in refrigerator; Double oven; Family room; Living room; Solarium; Other bath features: shower stall(s) and tub with shower over
• Laundry & utility: Washer included; Dryer included; Laundry room

🔨 Auction listing. The $19,000 list price is a nominal opening bid, not a real ask — every metric below is computed on the estimated value $224,000 (ARV from comps), not the list price.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $19k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $807 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $19k).
• Cap rate 10.6% vs local median 2.5% in Santa Rosa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#112 in CA, #3,940 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: schools C-, cost of living F.
• Santa Rosa High (urban): math 31% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #703 of 1,400 in CA (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 199 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,039 units permitted in Sonoma County in 2024 (185 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($98k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sonoma County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 17.7% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $19,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.44%
• DSCR: 1.69
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $224,000
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
26 Chapala Dr	0.01mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+3%)	9mo	$133,142	$92	87
4 Estrella Dr	0.16mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+3%)	2mo	$149,000	$103	86
89 Estrella Dr	0.15mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+3%)	3mo	$230,000	$160	86
108 Estrella Dr	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+3%)	8mo	$240,000	$167	84
85 Estrella Dr	0.19mi	2/2.0	1,450 (+4%)	1mo	$145,000	$100	84
107 Estrella Dr	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+3%)	13mo	$160,000	$111	80
90 Estrella Dr	0.14mi	2/2.0	1,464 (+5%)	7mo	$173,000	$118	80
109 Estrella Dr	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-11%)	3mo	$165,000	$132	76
3110 Loretta Way	0.47mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (-4%)	5mo	$245,000	$182	62
119 Estrella Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,600 (+14%)	9mo	$265,000	$166	58
1945 Piner Rd #148	0.74mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-4%)	7mo	$285,000	$212	53
3116 Loretta Way	0.49mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,271 (-9%)	12mo	$235,000	$185	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.11×
• Total profit: $6,695
• Equity at exit: $33,399

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.63×
• Total profit: $39,465
• Equity at exit: $19,367

Cash invested: $62,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95403

• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 199
• Price-to-rent: 0.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,981 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,175
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$280 /mo · $3,360/yr
• Insurance: −$93
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$626
• Net cashflow: $807

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,960

Max offer price $224,000

Occupancy floor 68%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,000
• Closing costs: $6,720
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 29 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1938 Terry Rd Unit Main Santa Rosa, CA	3.0	3.0	1604	$3,679	$2.29	13d	1	0.25mi
2705 Range Ave Santa Rosa, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	838	$2,750	$3.28	13d	6	0.25mi
2354 Heidi Pl Apt 1 Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$2,000	$2.22	13d	1	0.35mi
2791 McBride Ln #118 Santa Rosa, CA	3.0	2.5	1400	$3,500	$2.50	13d	1	0.36mi
2980 Bay Village Cir Santa Rosa, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	924	$2,778	$3.01	13d	7	0.56mi
1333 W Steele Ln Santa Rosa, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	850	$2,450	$2.88	13d	4	0.57mi
561 Renaissance Way Santa Rosa, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	876	$2,995	$3.42	13d	18	0.66mi
3610 Mendocino Ave Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	828	$3,995	$4.82	13d	177	0.74mi
2002 Pinercrest Dr Santa Rosa, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	792	$2,350	$2.97	13d	1	0.76mi
2001 Piner Rd Santa Rosa, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	901	$2,473	$2.74	13d	5	0.84mi
1595 Herbert St Unit 17 Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$2,195	$2.44	21d	1	0.92mi
1054 Edwards Ave Unit 1058- C Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	1.5	1000	$2,300	$2.30	13d	1	0.97mi
1163 Hopper Ave Santa Rosa, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	773	$2,625	$3.40	7d	2	0.97mi
1514 Lance Dr Santa Rosa, CA	3.0	2.5	1185	$3,150	$2.66	21d	1	1.04mi
1217 Jennings Ave Santa Rosa, CA	3.0	2.0	1172	$3,250	$2.77	13d	1	1.06mi
426 Semillon Ln Santa Rosa, CA	3.0	2.5	1746	$3,600	$2.06	13d	1	1.07mi
347 Semillon Ln Santa Rosa, CA	3.0	4.0	1812	$3,825	$2.11	13d	1	1.08mi
2040 Autumn Walk Dr Santa Rosa, CA	3.0	2.5	1428	$3,450	$2.42	13d	1	1.08mi
200 Bicentennial Way Santa Rosa, CA	2.0–3.0	2.0–3.0	1272	$2,811	$2.21	13d	3	1.09mi
1020 Jennings Ave Santa Rosa, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	863	$2,701	$3.13	13d	8	1.12mi
2010 Pioneer Way Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	1.5	880	$2,374	$2.70	13d	2	1.16mi
3587 Round Barn Blvd Santa Rosa, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1112	$2,995	$2.69	4d	4	1.18mi
2300 Waltzer Rd Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,350	$2.35	13d	1	1.19mi
1470 Tammy Way Santa Rosa, CA	3.0	2.5	1200	$3,000	$2.50	13d	1	1.27mi
2203 Versaro Dr Santa Rosa, CA	3.0	2.5	1800	$3,750	$2.08	13d	1	1.32mi
2135 Pebblewood Ct Santa Rosa, CA	3.0	2.0	1340	$3,400	$2.54	13d	1	1.36mi
2120 Jennings Ave Santa Rosa, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	750	$2,450	$3.27	13d	6	1.41mi
2316 Dancing Penny Way Unit 1 Santa Rosa, CA	3.0	2.5	1400	$3,500	$2.50	13d	1	1.44mi
2316 Dancing Penny Way Santa Rosa, CA	3.0	2.5	1500	$3,500	$2.33	13d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $19,000 Active 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $19,000 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $19,000 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $19,000 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $19,000 Active 2 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $19,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 21 unhealthy d/yr today · 21 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,773
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,547
• − Property taxes: −$3,360
• − Insurance: −$1,120
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,862
• − Management: −$2,862
• − Depreciation: −$6,516
• Taxable income: $6,505
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,561
• After-tax cash flow: $8,123/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Rosa High
• NCES district ID: 0635830
• Math proficiency: 31% —
• Reading proficiency: 47% —
• Median HH income: $62,000
• Composite: 37.25/100
• National rank: #8972
• State rank: #703 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Santa Rosa

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #112
• US rank: #3940

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime C Employment A+ Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Santa Rosa, CA
• County: Sonoma County · 449,805 people
• City population: 210,074
• Metro: Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA
• Population (ZIP): 45,806
• Household income: $98,191
• Rent vs Own: 45.2% rent · 54.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1770.0

Population outlook (Sonoma County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 539,935 people
• By 2030: 554,870 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 573,262 · +6.2%
• By 2050: 580,715 · +7.6%
• By 2075: 579,229 · +7.3%
• By 2100: 547,835 · +1.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 37% Two or more races 13% Asian 5% Native American 2% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 26% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sonoma

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+46.2) · D 71.4% · R 25.2% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.4pp toward R · 2008: 49.6pp · 2024: 46.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+46.2 2020: D+51.5 2016: D+47.9 2012: D+44.9 2008: D+49.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -679.94%
• Current HPI: 254.3106
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.10%
• Metro: Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $19,000 BAREIS