31 Williamson Ave · Berlin, NH 03570

$149,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,625 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 83 Days on market

Built 1952 7,840 sqft lot $92/sqft · 39% below area Est $242k · 39% under ↓ 25% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

6 room, 3 bedroom, 1 bath cape with 1625 feet of living space. Featuring hardwood and laminate floors. Full unfinished basement, attached 2 car garage. Level 0.18 acre lot. If property was built prior to 1978, Lead Paint Potentially exists

Key facts

• 7,840 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1952

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $149k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $689 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $149k).
• Recommended offer: $140k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.4% vs local median 7.1% in Berlin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#67 in NH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A-, housing A-; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Berlin School District (town): math 24% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #91 of 98 in NH (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 100 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 95 units permitted in Coos County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Coos County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($140k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $26k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.9% of price; flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,060 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.88% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.72%
• DSCR: 1.97
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $242,346
• List price: $149,000
• Delta: -38.52%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
23 Countryside Ave	0.42mi	3/1.5	1,721 (+6%)	3mo	$269,900	$157	66
59 12th St	0.23mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,716 (+6%)	15mo	$165,000	$96	62
44 Countryside Ave	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,596 (-2%)	18mo	$235,000	$147	56
28 Rheims St	0.69mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,700 (+5%)	14mo	$280,000	$165	43
71 Denmark St	0.69mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,413 (-13%)	1mo	$146,900	$104	38
39 Countryside Ave	0.44mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,758 (+8%)	22mo	$247,500	$141	38
1786 Hutchins St	0.55mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,829 (+13%)	7mo	$203,000	$111	37
291 Howard St	0.56mi	3/1.5	1,401 (-14%)	20mo	$295,000	$211	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 39.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.00×
• Total profit: $125,351
• Equity at exit: $134,231

10-year hold

• IRR: 33.8%
• Equity multiple: 9.04×
• Total profit: $335,338
• Equity at exit: $289,474

Cash invested: $41,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 56 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Hampshire: 56 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+1
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Has just-cause statute; 30-day notice; landlord-leaning vs. neighbors.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 03570

• Home prices YoY: 14.3%
• Active inventory: 100
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,800 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax from tax record: −$614 /mo · $7,362/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$588
• Net cashflow: $689

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,928

Max offer price $149,000

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,250
• Closing costs: $4,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1878 Riverside Dr Berlin, NH	2.0	1.0	1396	$2,800	$2.01	43d	1	0.43mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending 239-char remark

   Show marketing remark (239 chars)

   6 room, 3 bedroom, 1 bath cape with 1625 feet of living space. Featuring hardwood and laminate floors. Full unfinished basement, attached 2 car garage. Level 0.18 acre lot. If property was built prior to 1978, Lead Paint Potentially exists

2. 2026-05-04
   price $149,000 239-char remark

   Show marketing remark (239 chars)

   6 room, 3 bedroom, 1 bath cape with 1625 feet of living space. Featuring hardwood and laminate floors. Full unfinished basement, attached 2 car garage. Level 0.18 acre lot. If property was built prior to 1978, Lead Paint Potentially exists

3. 2026-04-29
   status Active 239-char remark

   Show marketing remark (239 chars)

   6 room, 3 bedroom, 1 bath cape with 1625 feet of living space. Featuring hardwood and laminate floors. Full unfinished basement, attached 2 car garage. Level 0.18 acre lot. If property was built prior to 1978, Lead Paint Potentially exists

4. 2026-02-27
   status Pending 239-char remark

   Show marketing remark (239 chars)

   6 room, 3 bedroom, 1 bath cape with 1625 feet of living space. Featuring hardwood and laminate floors. Full unfinished basement, attached 2 car garage. Level 0.18 acre lot. If property was built prior to 1978, Lead Paint Potentially exists

5. 2026-02-25
   historical Active with Contract 239-char remark

   Show marketing remark (239 chars)

   6 room, 3 bedroom, 1 bath cape with 1625 feet of living space. Featuring hardwood and laminate floors. Full unfinished basement, attached 2 car garage. Level 0.18 acre lot. If property was built prior to 1978, Lead Paint Potentially exists

6. 2026-01-22
   price $165,000 239-char remark

   Show marketing remark (239 chars)

   6 room, 3 bedroom, 1 bath cape with 1625 feet of living space. Featuring hardwood and laminate floors. Full unfinished basement, attached 2 car garage. Level 0.18 acre lot. If property was built prior to 1978, Lead Paint Potentially exists

7. 2025-12-18
   listed $175,000 Active 239-char remark

   Show marketing remark (239 chars)

   6 room, 3 bedroom, 1 bath cape with 1625 feet of living space. Featuring hardwood and laminate floors. Full unfinished basement, attached 2 car garage. Level 0.18 acre lot. If property was built prior to 1978, Lead Paint Potentially exists

8. 2024-07-15
   price $259,900
9. 2022-06-08
   soldstatus $225,000 Closed
10. 2022-06-08
    soldstatus $225,000
11. 2022-06-06
    status Pending
12. 2022-04-15
    historical Active with Contract
13. 2022-04-05
    listed $199,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $7,362 · $614/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,362 · $614/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,346
• − Property taxes: −$7,362
• − Insurance: −$1,542
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,688
• − Management: −$2,688
• − Depreciation: −$4,335
• Taxable income: $6,639
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,593
• After-tax cash flow: $6,670/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Berlin School District
• NCES district ID: 3301860
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $37,494
• Composite: 22.5/100
• National rank: #8095
• State rank: #91 of 98 in NH

Livability — Berlin

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #67
• US rank: #11665

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Berlin, NH
• City population: 9,473
• Population (ZIP): 9,473

Population outlook (Coos County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 30,912 people
• By 2030: 29,872 · -3.4%
• By 2040: 27,449 · -11.2%
• By 2050: 25,049 · -19.0%
• By 2075: 19,584 · -36.6%
• By 2100: 13,818 · -55.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 21% German 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 8% Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Coos

• 2024 margin: R (+13.8) · D 42.7% · R 56.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.1pp toward R · 2008: 18.3pp · 2024: -13.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.8 2020: R+5.9 2016: R+9.1 2012: D+17.6 2008: D+18.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 55.16%
• Current HPI: 440.9127
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-25.1% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Pending — PrimeMLS
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $149,000 PrimeMLS
• 2026-04-29 Relisted — PrimeMLS
• 2026-02-27 Pending — PrimeMLS
• 2026-02-25 Contingent — PrimeMLS
• 2026-01-22 Price Changed $165,000 PrimeMLS
• 2025-12-18 Listed $175,000 PrimeMLS
• 2024-07-15 Price Changed $259,900 PrimeMLS
• 2022-06-08 Sold (Public Records) $225,000 Public Records
• 2022-06-08 Sold (MLS) $225,000 PrimeMLS
• 2022-06-06 Pending — PrimeMLS
• 2022-04-15 Contingent — PrimeMLS
• 2022-04-05 Listed $199,000 PrimeMLS

Property tax history

+6.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,362 · +8.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.