3610 W Abraham Ln · Phoenix, AZ 85308

$279,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,000 sqft · Manufactured · 104 Days on market

Built 1973 9,744 sqft lot $140/sqft · at area comps Est $282k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.9/15.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious 4-bedroom, 3-bath home on a large lot with no HOA! Features a floor plan with multiple living areas, RV gate and RV parking, and a big backyard with plenty of room for toys, storage, or entertainment. Also features a seperate studio/office, and a workshop. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and freeway access. Great opportunity for homeowners or investors!

Key facts

• 9,744 sq ft lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1973

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath manufactured listed at $279k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-83 ($-993/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $267k (4.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $234k (16.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $234k (16.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.3% in Phoenix — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Deer Valley Unified District (4246) (urban): math 50% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #33 of 249 in AZ (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.4%/yr); 307 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 104 days — a 9% lower offer ($254k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 13 sale attempts since 26y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $170k; list at $279k implies a 64% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $233,590 (16.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 104 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.27%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $281,680
• List price: $279,000
• Delta: -0.95%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3529 W Ross Ave	0.26mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,040 (+2%)	12mo	$305,000	$150	70
3837 W Salter Dr	0.30mi	5/3.0 (+1)	1,944 (-3%)	11mo	$285,000	$147	67
3708 W Ross Ave	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,925 (-4%)	6mo	$349,000	$181	64
3840 W Abraham Ln	0.25mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,129 (+6%)	12mo	$300,000	$141	59
3551 W Ross Ave	0.26mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,849 (-8%)	15mo	$339,800	$184	54
3826 W Abraham Ln	0.20mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,722 (-14%)	8mo	$200,000	$116	52
20612 N 36th Ave	0.54mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,755 (-12%)	6mo	$375,000	$214	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-57,290
• Equity at exit: $41,600

10-year hold

• IRR: -25.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.06×
• Total profit: $-82,986
• Equity at exit: $24,123

Cash invested: $78,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85308

• Rents YoY: -2.4%
• Active inventory: 307
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,336 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,463
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$349 /mo · $4,185/yr
• Insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$491
• Net cashflow: $-83

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,441

Max offer price $267,027

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $110	-5% $14	+0% $-83	+5% $-179	+10% $-276
Rent	-10% $-267	-5% $-175	+0% $-83	+5% $10	+10% $102
Rate	-1.0pp $58	-0.5pp $-12	base $-83	+0.5pp $-155	+1.0pp $-229

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,750
• Closing costs: $8,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 25 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
21655 N 36th Ave #135 Glendale, AZ	3.0	2.5	1457	$2,100	$1.44	23d	1	0.13mi
3547 W Via del Sol Dr Glendale, AZ	3.0	2.0	1720	$2,300	$1.34	5d	1	0.22mi
3215 W Salter Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1450	$2,145	$1.48	5d	1	0.54mi
3215 W Salter Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1451	$2,145	$1.48	13d	1	0.54mi
4039 W Salter Dr Glendale, AZ	3.0	2.5	1689	$2,485	$1.47	44d	1	0.54mi
4039 W Salter Dr Glendale, AZ	3.0	2.5	1689	$2,210	$1.31	21d	1	0.54mi
3126 W Zachary Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1888	$2,350	$1.24	8d	1	0.67mi
3103 W Zachary Dr Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.5	2440	$3,100	$1.27	44d	1	0.74mi
3711 W Blackhawk Dr Glendale, AZ	3.0	2.0	1567	$2,200	$1.40	12d	1	0.75mi
20818 N 42nd Ave Glendale, AZ	3.0	2.0	1701	$3,000	$1.76	44d	1	0.78mi
3035 W Melinda Ln Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.0	1443	$1,971	$1.37	44d	1	0.80mi
22052 N 30th Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1421	$2,120	$1.49	17d	1	0.87mi
22045 N 30th Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1421	$1,999	$1.41	44d	1	0.89mi
22507 N 31st Ave #15 Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1935	$2,565	$1.33	6d	1	0.94mi
22022 N 29th Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1508	$1,871	$1.24	8d	1	0.97mi
3128 W Adobe Dam Rd Phoenix, AZ	4.0	3.0	2704	$3,295	$1.22	44d	1	1.06mi
22227 N 29th Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1558	$1,899	$1.22	25d	1	1.06mi
2902 W Irma Ln Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1553	$2,295	$1.48	44d	1	1.08mi
22125 N 29th Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0–4.0	2.5–4.0	1771	$2,600	$1.47	44d	3	1.08mi
20018 N 43rd Ln Glendale, AZ	3.0	2.0	1464	$2,180	$1.49	8d	1	1.28mi
3833 W Camino del Rio Glendale, AZ	3.0	2.0	1759	$2,199	$1.25	5d	1	1.33mi
23809 N 38th Dr Glendale, AZ	3.0	3.0	1759	$2,450	$1.39	44d	1	1.43mi
3806 W Cielo Grande Glendale, AZ	3.0	2.5	1511	$1,975	$1.31	25d	1	1.48mi
3806 W Cielo Grande Glendale, AZ	3.0	2.5	1511	$1,975	$1.31	0d	1	1.48mi
3622 W Cielo Grande Glendale, AZ	4.0	2.5	1759	$2,566	$1.46	13d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $279,000 Active 104 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $279,000 Active 101 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $279,000 Active 100 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $279,000 Active 99 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $279,000 Active 98 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $279,000 Active 96 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $279,000 Active 95 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $279,000 Active 92 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $279,000 Active 91 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $279,000 Active 90 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $279,000 Active 87 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $279,000 Active 86 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $279,000 Active 85 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $279,000 Active 84 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $279,000 Active 83 DOM
16. 2026-04-27
    price $279,000 376-char remark

    Show marketing remark (376 chars)

    Spacious 4-bedroom, 3-bath home on a large lot with no HOA! Features a floor plan with multiple living areas, RV gate and RV parking, and a big backyard with plenty of room for toys, storage, or entertainment. Also features a seperate studio/office, and a workshop. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and freeway access. Great opportunity for homeowners or investors!

17. 2026-03-09
    listed $280,000 Active 376-char remark

    Show marketing remark (376 chars)

    Spacious 4-bedroom, 3-bath home on a large lot with no HOA! Features a floor plan with multiple living areas, RV gate and RV parking, and a big backyard with plenty of room for toys, storage, or entertainment. Also features a seperate studio/office, and a workshop. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and freeway access. Great opportunity for homeowners or investors!

18. 2026-02-22
    status Active
19. 2026-01-29
    status Pending
20. 2026-01-29
    historical
21. 2026-01-29
    historical
22. 2026-01-07
    listed $280,000 Active
23. 2026-01-07
    listed $280,000 Active
24. 2026-01-07
    historical
25. 2025-05-16
    historical
26. 2025-04-17
    listed $250,000 Active
27. 2025-04-01
    historical
28. 2024-09-13
    listed $320,000 Active
29. 2018-11-09
    soldstatus $170,000 Closed
30. 2018-11-09
    soldstatus $170,000
31. 2018-11-05
    historical Under Contract Accepting Backups
32. 2018-10-24
    status Active
33. 2018-10-14
    status Pending
34. 2018-10-14
    listed $175,000 Active
35. 2018-10-12
    status Pending
36. 2018-10-11
    soldstatus $170,000 Closed
37. 2018-08-11
    listed $175,000 Active
38. 2007-03-27
    historical
39. 2007-01-05
    listed $140,000
40. 2005-09-30
    soldstatus $149,900
41. 2005-09-30
    soldstatus $149,900
42. 2005-09-17
    historical
43. 2005-09-11
    listed $149,900
44. 2005-09-10
    historical
45. 2005-06-10
    listed $149,900
46. 2002-11-27
    soldstatus $75,000
47. 2001-03-30
    soldstatus $37,000
48. 2001-02-12
    historical
49. 2000-11-15
    listed $39,900
50. 1993-01-25
    soldstatus $24,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,031
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,628
• − Property taxes: −$4,185
• − Insurance: −$1,395
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,242
• − Management: −$2,242
• − Depreciation: −$8,116
• Taxable loss: −$5,779
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,387
• After-tax cash flow: $394/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Deer Valley Unified District (4246)
• NCES district ID: 0407750
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $72,516
• Composite: 47.0/100
• National rank: #2346
• State rank: #33 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Phoenix

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #3924

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Phoenix, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 1,500,198
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 65,095
• Household income: $95,247
• Rent vs Own: 29.2% rent · 70.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1896.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 12% Asian 5% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -259.70%
• Current HPI: 296.0366
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.39%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+1811.0% since first listed

36 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $279,000 ARMLS
• 2026-03-09 Listed $280,000 ARMLS
• 2026-02-22 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2026-01-29 Pending — ARMLS
• 2026-01-29 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2026-01-29 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2026-01-07 Listed $280,000 ARMLS
• 2026-01-07 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2026-01-07 Listed $280,000 ARMLS
• 2025-05-16 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-04-17 Listed $250,000 ARMLS
• 2025-04-01 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2024-09-13 Listed $320,000 ARMLS
• 2018-11-09 Sold (Public Records) $170,000 Public Records
• 2018-11-09 Sold (MLS) $170,000 ARMLS
• 2018-11-05 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2018-10-24 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2018-10-14 Pending — ARMLS
• 2018-10-14 Listed $175,000 ARMLS
• 2018-10-12 Pending — ARMLS
• 2018-10-11 Sold (MLS) $170,000 ARMLS
• 2018-08-11 Listed $175,000 ARMLS
• 2007-03-27 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2007-01-05 Listed $140,000 ARMLS
• 2005-09-30 Sold (Public Records) $149,900 Public Records
• 2005-09-30 Sold (MLS) $149,900 ARMLS
• 2005-09-17 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2005-09-11 Listed $149,900 ARMLS
• 2005-09-10 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2005-06-10 Listed $149,900 ARMLS
• 2002-11-27 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records
• 2001-03-30 Sold (MLS) $37,000 ARMLS
• 2001-02-12 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2000-11-15 Listed $39,900 ARMLS
• 1993-01-25 Sold (Public Records) $24,000 Public Records
• 1977-06-16 Sold (Public Records) $14,600 Public Records

Property tax history

-2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $280 · +1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.