Is 2308 Red Bird Trce in Lockhart, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it D with a 5.6% cap rate and $-142/mo modeled cash flow at a $228,990 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 2308 Red Bird Trce?

The modeled cap rate is 5.6% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $1,887/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

D Composite 43.78

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +15.0/15.0
Cash flow +9.9/30.0
Condition / age +3.8/5.0
Livability +3.4/5.0
1% rule +3.2/10.0
Schools +3.2/10.0
DSCR +2.8/10.0
Rent growth +2.5/5.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$228,990

2308 Red Bird Trce · Lockhart, TX 78644

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · SingleFamily · 164 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 5,052 sqft lot 1-car garage $179/sqft · 38% below area Est $368k · 38% under $50/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 8% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

Check out the Barton, one of our one-story floorplans available at Lantana in Lockhart, Texas. This 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home includes a 2-car garage all within 1,280 square feet of comfortable living space. Our homes in Lantana feature front masonry exteriors, and the Barton is available in 2 exterior options. As you enter the home from the front porch, you'll be in the foyer, which includes the utility room and access to the garage. Moving further into the home, you'll find the kitchen, dining and family room. Built as an open concept living space, you're sure to make many memories here. The kitchen features an island with a stainless-steel sink, quartz countertops, 42' upper 'picture frame' cabinets, a pantry closet, and stainless-steel appliances. The secondary bedrooms and bathroom are located off the kitchen. The bedrooms include carpet and closets with wood shelving. The secondary bathroom has a shower/tub combination and a cultured marble vanity with trench sink. The primary bedroom is tucked away at the back of the home and includes an attached bathroom. Start your mornings off right in this private space, which includes a walk-in shower, cultured marble vanity with trench sink and a walk-in closet. This home features our America's Smart Home base package, which includes the Video Front Doorbell, Front Door Deadbolt Lock, Home Hub, Thermostat, and Smart Switch. Contact us today and find your home at Lantana.

Key facts

One story floorplans
Quartz countertops
Pantry closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $229k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-142 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $208k (9.0% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $189k (17.6% below list).
Recommended offer: $189k (17.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.6% in Lockhart — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

Location reads 67/100 on livability (#535 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
Lockhart ISD (town): math 27% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #657 of 826 in TX (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Navarro El (math 27% / reading 30%, grade F, #2,706 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 580 students, 72% FRL); Lockhart J H (math 22% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,301 of 1,662 statewide, top 79%, 1,433 students, 74% FRL); Lockhart H S (math 21% / reading 33%, grade F, #1,204 of 1,632 statewide, top 75%, 1,968 students, 69% FRL).
Market conditions: 692 active listings in the ZIP; 529 units permitted in Caldwell County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Caldwell County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 164 days — a 12% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $41k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $188,708 (17.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 164 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.82% ✗
Cap rate: 5.55%
Cash-on-cash: -2.65%
DSCR: 0.88
GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $368,212
List price: $228,990
Delta: -37.81%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
403 County View Rd	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,270 (-1%)	1mo	$345,900	$272	71
219 Langston Dr	2.16mi	3/2.0	1,288 (+1%)	15mo	$289,990	$225	51
212 Varner Way	2.11mi	3/2.0	1,190 (-7%)	3mo	$208,990	$176	51
101 Kendall Ln	2.16mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,359 (+6%)	1mo	$229,990	$169	49
128 Langston Dr	2.16mi	3/2.0	1,434 (+12%)	3mo	$269,990	$188	42
125 Kendall Ln	2.13mi	3/2.5	1,419 (+11%)	13mo	$239,990	$169	34
325 Hodges St	2.23mi	3/2.0	1,575 (+23%)	9mo	$324,990	$206	33
201 Varner Way	2.15mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,130 (-12%)	9mo	$219,990	$195	31
5172 Fm 2001	1.87mi	3/2.0	1,572 (+23%)	11mo	$399,000	$254	31
439 Hodges St	2.16mi	3/2.0	1,575 (+23%)	14mo	$289,990	$184	29
7029 Highway 142	1.96mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,010 (-21%)	38mo	$348,000	$345	11

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -20.7%
Equity multiple: 0.28×
Total profit: $-46,072
Equity at exit: $34,143

10-year hold

IRR: -13.9%
Equity multiple: 0.20×
Total profit: $-51,500
Equity at exit: $19,799

Cash invested: $64,117 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 14 active · 3 under contract
Months of supply: 84.0 mo (1%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $270,490 ($197/sqft)
Median days on market: 109 d
This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
ARV vs active asking: +46.3% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78644

Home prices YoY: -29.4%
Active inventory: 692
Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $1,887 medium interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,201
Tax est. 1.5%: −$286 /mo · $3,435/yr
Insurance: −$95
HOA: −$50
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$396
Net cashflow: $-142

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,066

Max offer price $208,485

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $17	-5% $-63	+0% $-142	+5% $-221	+10% $-300
Rent	-10% $-291	-5% $-216	+0% $-142	+5% $-67	+10% $7
Rate	-1.0pp $-26	-0.5pp $-83	base $-142	+0.5pp $-201	+1.0pp $-261

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $57,248
Closing costs: $6,870
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Property features AI

Finance

HOA & community: Mandatory HOAHOA fee $600 annuallyAssociation transfer fee $325

Exterior

Parking: Attached 1-car garage
Utilities: Additional water/sewer information available
Home design: New construction by D.R. HortonBrick and stone exterior
Construction: Slab foundationComposition roof
Exterior features: Privacy fenceDouble-pane windows

Interior

Kitchen: Stove/RangeMicrowaveDishwasherGarbage disposalIce maker connectionGas cooking
Bedrooms: Primary bedroom with walk-in closet and full bath (16 x 13)Bedroom 2 (11 x 11)Bedroom 3 (10 x 10)
Flooring: CarpetingVinyl flooring
Bathrooms: Two full bathroomsPrimary bathroom with shower only and single vanity (12 x 11)
Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas)Central air conditioning
Interior features: Open floor plan with living/dining combinationIsland kitchenLaundry room on main levelWalk-in closetsPartially floored attic with pull-down stairs and radiant barrier deckingSmoke alarmGas water heater
Laundry & utility: Washer connectionDryer connectionLaundry on main level

Listing history 50 events

2026-11-08

days on market $228,990 Active 164 DOM
2026-11-07

statusdays on market $228,990 Active 163 DOM
2026-11-06

days on market $228,990 Price Change 162 DOM
2026-11-05

days on market $228,990 Price Change 161 DOM
2026-11-04

days on market $228,990 Price Change 160 DOM
2026-11-02

days on market $228,990 Price Change 158 DOM
2026-11-01

days on market $228,990 Price Change 157 DOM
2026-10-31

days on market $228,990 Price Change 156 DOM
2026-10-30

days on market $228,990 Price Change 155 DOM
2026-10-29

days on market $228,990 Price Change 154 DOM
2026-10-28

pricestatusdays on market $228,990 Price Change 153 DOM
2026-10-27

days on market $238,990 Active 152 DOM
2026-10-26

days on market $238,990 Active 151 DOM
2026-10-26

days on market $238,990 Active 150 DOM
2026-10-24

days on market $238,990 Active 149 DOM
2026-10-23

days on market $238,990 Active 148 DOM
2026-10-22

days on market $238,990 Active 147 DOM
2026-10-21

days on market $238,990 Active 146 DOM
2026-10-20

days on market $238,990 Active 145 DOM
2026-10-19

days on market $238,990 Active 144 DOM
2026-10-18

days on market $238,990 Active 143 DOM
2026-10-17

days on market $238,990 Active 142 DOM
2026-10-16

days on market $238,990 Active 141 DOM
2026-10-15

days on market $238,990 Active 140 DOM
2026-10-14

days on market $238,990 Active 139 DOM
2026-10-13

days on market $238,990 Active 138 DOM
2026-10-12

statusdays on market $238,990 Active 137 DOM
2026-10-11

days on market $238,990 Price Change 136 DOM
2026-10-10

days on market $238,990 Price Change 135 DOM
2026-10-09

days on market $238,990 Price Change 134 DOM
2026-10-08

days on market $238,990 Price Change 133 DOM
2026-10-07

days on market $238,990 Price Change 132 DOM
2026-10-06

days on market $238,990 Price Change 131 DOM
2026-10-05

days on market $238,990 Price Change 130 DOM
2026-10-04

days on market $238,990 Price Change 129 DOM
2026-10-04

days on market $238,990 Price Change 128 DOM
2026-10-02

days on market $238,990 Price Change 127 DOM
2026-10-01

pricestatus $238,990 Price Change 126 DOM
2026-10-01

days on market $241,990 Active 126 DOM
2026-09-30

days on market $241,990 Active 125 DOM
2026-09-29

days on market $241,990 Active 124 DOM
2026-09-28

statusdays on market $241,990 Active 123 DOM
2026-09-27

days on market $241,990 Price Change 122 DOM
2026-09-25

days on market $241,990 Price Change 120 DOM
2026-09-24

days on market $241,990 Price Change 119 DOM
2026-09-23

days on market $241,990 Price Change 118 DOM
2026-09-22

days on market $241,990 Price Change 117 DOM
2026-09-21

days on market $241,990 Price Change 116 DOM
2026-09-20

days on market $241,990 Price Change 115 DOM
2026-09-19

days on market $241,990 Price Change 114 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

Loading sold comps map…

Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

Loading nearby amenities…

Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $22,645
− Mortgage interest: −$12,827
− Property taxes: −$3,435
− Insurance: −$1,145
− Repairs & maintenance: −$1,812
− Management: −$1,812
− HOA: −$600
− Depreciation: −$6,662
Taxable loss: −$5,647

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,355
After-tax cash flow: $-345/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $6,400–$19,200 screening

This single-family home in Lockhart, TX, is in good condition with a good condition score of 75. It is ready for a cosmetic renovation to enhance its curb appeal and interior aesthetics, with the highest-ROI updates being painting and landscaping improvements, as well as kitchen and bathroom updates.

Value-add opportunities

Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
Resale Kitchen backsplash — A backsplash can add a modern touch and increase the home's appeal to potential buyers. ↑
Resale Bathroom updates — Fresh bathrooms can significantly boost the home's resale value by making it more attractive to potential buyers. ↑
Rental HVAC system maintenance — A well-maintained HVAC system ensures comfort and can attract tenants who prioritize energy efficiency and comfort. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 32/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Clear Fork El F TX #1,769/4,322 Nat'l #21,438/41,679 High Lockhart H S F TX #1,204/1,632 Nat'l #11,887/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Lockhart ISD
NCES district ID: 4827870
Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -12.00%
Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -2.00%
Median HH income: $48,868
Composite: 24.44/100
National rank: #7674
State rank: #657 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 67/100

Livability — Lockhart

Score: 67/100
State rank: #535
US rank: #10453

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County: Caldwell County · 46,557 people
City population: 22,348
Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
Population (ZIP): 22,348
Household income: $74,709
Rent vs Own: 25.1% rent · 74.9% own
Severe rent burden: 20% of renters

Population outlook (Caldwell County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 46,557 people
By 2030: 49,673 · +6.7%
By 2040: 55,827 · +19.9%
By 2050: 61,832 · +32.8%
By 2075: 77,212 · +65.8%
By 2100: 89,225 · +91.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 52% White 39% Two or more races 23% Black 4% Asian 1%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 45% Puerto Rican 2%
Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 32%

Political lean MEDSL · Caldwell

2024 margin: R (+14.4) · D 42.2% · R 56.6% · Other 1.2%
2008→2024 swing: -8.4pp toward R · 2008: -6.0pp · 2024: -14.4pp
All cycles: 2024: R+14.4 2020: R+9.1 2016: R+15.8 2012: R+11.1 2008: R+6.0

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -99.62%
Current HPI: 239.7906
Rent YoY: —
Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

-7.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

2026-07-02 Price Changed $249,990 Zillow
2026-06-12 Price Changed $239,990 LERA
2026-06-10 Price Changed $239,990 Zillow
2026-05-28 Listed $270,090 LERA
2026-03-31 Listed $270,990 Zillow

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

Loading sold comps…