209 Oak Leaf Cir Unit 209-C · Bel Air South, MD 21009

$195,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,007 sqft · Condo · 12 Days on market

Built 1991 $302/mo HOA · 14% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• Rent growth +4.3/5.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

All I Want for Christmas is. .. .. .. 209 Oak Leaf Circle- Unit C. Ground floor unit with 2 bedrooms and 1 full bath. Freshly painted and new LVP flooring throughout (2024). Updated Stainless Appliances including oven/range, microwave and dishwasher. Updated lighting fixtures. Primary bedroom with walk-in closet. Dual vanity and new toilet in the full bath. Washer and dryer in unit and they both convey. Updated HVAC too! Extra storage closet off the patio. Easy living, affordable and move-in ready. Building well maintained by the association. New carpet in hallway areas. Schedule YOUR Appointment and be ready to move in 2025!

Key facts

• Lush green space
• Private patio
• Lvp flooring

Tags

• MAIN LEVEL CONDO
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• LVP FLOORING
• IN-UNIT WASHER AND DRYER
• PRIVATE PATIO
• LUSH GREEN SPACE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Monthly condo fee of $280; Additional HOA fee $22 monthly; HOA covers common area maintenance, insurance, lawn and road maintenance, sewer, snow removal, trash, and water; Common grounds

Exterior

• Parking: Parking lot
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service
• Home design: Condominium unit/flat; Garden-style building (1–4 floors); Entry on first level
• Construction: Brick front with vinyl siding; Above-grade and below-grade structures; Built in (year source: Assessor)
• Exterior features: Patio(s); Pets allowed on a case-by-case basis

Interior

• Kitchen: Stainless steel appliances; Dishwasher; Built-in microwave; Exhaust fan; Garbage disposal; Electric oven/range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Luxury vinyl plank
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central air conditioning; Electric heating and cooling; Electric hot water
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Combination dining and living area; Tub with shower; Sliding glass door; Entry-level bedroom
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer in unit

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $152 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $195k).
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 4.1% in Bel Air South — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#33 in MD, #1,172 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D, cost of living D.
• Harford County Public Schools (suburban): math 22% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #9 of 24 in MD (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.1%/yr); 158 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 803 units permitted in Harford County in 2024 (26 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.1% rent growth), your $55k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 6 sale attempts since 29y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $195,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.34%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-12,570
• Equity at exit: $29,075

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.79×
• Total profit: $43,253
• Equity at exit: $16,860

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21009

• Rents YoY: 7.1%
• Active inventory: 158
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,133 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$128 /mo · $1,533/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$302
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$448
• Net cashflow: $152

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,941

Max offer price $195,000

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $262	-5% $207	+0% $152	+5% $97	+10% $41
Rent	-10% $-17	-5% $68	+0% $152	+5% $236	+10% $320
Rate	-1.0pp $250	-0.5pp $201	base $152	+0.5pp $101	+1.0pp $50

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
307L Tall Pines Ct Unit L Abingdon, MD	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,399	$1.85	15d	1	0.14mi
2509 Merrick Ct Abingdon, MD	3.0	1.5	1230	$1,900	$1.54	44d	1	0.40mi
129 Long Meadow Ct Abingdon, MD	3.0	1.5	1240	$2,200	$1.77	44d	1	0.46mi
158 Glen View Ter Abingdon, MD	2.0	2.5	1176	$1,995	$1.70	18d	1	0.50mi
3103 Cardinal Way Unit 1 Abingdon, MD	2.0	1.0	976	$1,800	$1.84	18d	1	0.83mi
644 Berwick Ct Abingdon, MD	3.0	2.5	1500	$2,395	$1.60	44d	1	0.85mi
200 Foxhall Dr Bel Air, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	924	$1,904	$2.06	2d	28	0.88mi
2814 Meredith Ct Abingdon, MD	3.0	2.5	1320	$2,300	$1.74	24d	1	0.90mi
3361 Cheverly Ct Abingdon, MD	3.0	2.5	1500	$2,195	$1.46	44d	1	0.92mi
321 Russo Way Bel Air, MD	1.0–2.0	1.5–2.0	1199	$2,459	$2.05	2d	16	1.17mi
499 Crisfield Dr Abingdon, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	898	$1,782	$1.98	2d	11	1.22mi
499 Crisfield Dr Abingdon, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	898	$1,864	$2.08	44d	20	1.22mi
3101 White Oak Dr Abingdon, MD	2.0	1.0–2.0	576	$1,630	$2.83	3d	5	1.32mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $302 · $3,624/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-05-06
   status Pending 1566-char remark
2. 2026-04-24
   listed $195,000 Active 1566-char remark
3. 2025-02-03
   soldstatus $185,000
4. 2025-01-17
   soldstatus $185,000 Closed 634-char remark

   Show marketing remark (634 chars)

   All I Want for Christmas is. .. .. .. 209 Oak Leaf Circle- Unit C. Ground floor unit with 2 bedrooms and 1 full bath. Freshly painted and new LVP flooring throughout (2024). Updated Stainless Appliances including oven/range, microwave and dishwasher. Updated lighting fixtures. Primary bedroom with walk-in closet. Dual vanity and new toilet in the full bath. Washer and dryer in unit and they both convey. Updated HVAC too! Extra storage closet off the patio. Easy living, affordable and move-in ready. Building well maintained by the association. New carpet in hallway areas. Schedule YOUR Appointment and be ready to move in 2025!

5. 2024-12-25
   status Pending 634-char remark

   Show marketing remark (634 chars)

   All I Want for Christmas is. .. .. .. 209 Oak Leaf Circle- Unit C. Ground floor unit with 2 bedrooms and 1 full bath. Freshly painted and new LVP flooring throughout (2024). Updated Stainless Appliances including oven/range, microwave and dishwasher. Updated lighting fixtures. Primary bedroom with walk-in closet. Dual vanity and new toilet in the full bath. Washer and dryer in unit and they both convey. Updated HVAC too! Extra storage closet off the patio. Easy living, affordable and move-in ready. Building well maintained by the association. New carpet in hallway areas. Schedule YOUR Appointment and be ready to move in 2025!

6. 2024-12-02
   listed $200,000 Active 634-char remark

   Show marketing remark (634 chars)

   All I Want for Christmas is. .. .. .. 209 Oak Leaf Circle- Unit C. Ground floor unit with 2 bedrooms and 1 full bath. Freshly painted and new LVP flooring throughout (2024). Updated Stainless Appliances including oven/range, microwave and dishwasher. Updated lighting fixtures. Primary bedroom with walk-in closet. Dual vanity and new toilet in the full bath. Washer and dryer in unit and they both convey. Updated HVAC too! Extra storage closet off the patio. Easy living, affordable and move-in ready. Building well maintained by the association. New carpet in hallway areas. Schedule YOUR Appointment and be ready to move in 2025!

7. 2024-11-27
   historical $200,000 634-char remark

   Show marketing remark (634 chars)

   All I Want for Christmas is. .. .. .. 209 Oak Leaf Circle- Unit C. Ground floor unit with 2 bedrooms and 1 full bath. Freshly painted and new LVP flooring throughout (2024). Updated Stainless Appliances including oven/range, microwave and dishwasher. Updated lighting fixtures. Primary bedroom with walk-in closet. Dual vanity and new toilet in the full bath. Washer and dryer in unit and they both convey. Updated HVAC too! Extra storage closet off the patio. Easy living, affordable and move-in ready. Building well maintained by the association. New carpet in hallway areas. Schedule YOUR Appointment and be ready to move in 2025!

8. 2004-08-20
   soldstatus $118,500
9. 2004-08-18
   soldstatus $118,500

   Show marketing remark (113 chars)

   bright 1st floor condo, fresh paint, neutral decordual entryentry to bathroom, big yard all appliances will stay!

10. 2004-07-10
    historical

    Show marketing remark (113 chars)

    bright 1st floor condo, fresh paint, neutral decordual entryentry to bathroom, big yard all appliances will stay!

11. 2004-06-17
    listed $119,900

    Show marketing remark (113 chars)

    bright 1st floor condo, fresh paint, neutral decordual entryentry to bathroom, big yard all appliances will stay!

12. 2001-05-14
    soldstatus $70,400
13. 2001-04-27
    soldstatus $70,400
14. 2001-04-03
    historical
15. 2001-03-01
    listed $72,000
16. 2000-04-17
    historical
17. 1998-09-29
    listed
18. 1997-10-24
    historical
19. 1997-07-17
    listed
20. 1991-06-26
    soldstatus $70,400

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,533 · $128/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,829 · $152/mo
• Expected delta: +$296/yr (+$25/mo · 19.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 26% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,602
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$1,533
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,048
• − Management: −$2,048
• − HOA: −$3,624
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable loss: −$1,222
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$293
• After-tax cash flow: $2,115/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harford County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400390
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $79,569
• Composite: 29.38/100
• National rank: #6527
• State rank: #9 of 24 in MD

Livability — Bel Air South

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #33
• US rank: #1172

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A- Cost of living D Crime D Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bel Air South, MD
• County: Harford County · 198,512 people
• City population: 63,895
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 33,679
• Household income: $121,660
• Rent vs Own: 17.6% rent · 82.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 437.0

Population outlook (Harford County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 262,292 people
• By 2030: 266,437 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 269,954 · +2.9%
• By 2050: 265,659 · +1.3%
• By 2075: 252,886 · -3.6%
• By 2100: 224,014 · -14.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Black 18% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 4% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harford

• 2024 margin: R (+13.8) · D 41.9% · R 55.7% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.0pp toward D · 2008: -18.8pp · 2024: -13.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.8 2020: R+12.0 2016: R+24.5 2012: R+19.5 2008: R+18.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -176.25%
• Current HPI: 251.4376
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.12%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+177.0% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Sold (MLS) $195,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-06 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-24 Listed $195,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-02-03 Sold (Public Records) $185,000 Public Records
• 2025-01-17 Sold (MLS) $185,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-12-25 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-12-02 Listed $200,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-11-27 Coming Soon $200,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2004-08-20 Sold (Public Records) $118,500 Public Records
• 2004-08-18 Sold (MLS) $118,500 MRIS
• 2004-07-10 Delisted — MRIS
• 2004-06-17 Listed $119,900 MRIS
• 2001-05-14 Sold (Public Records) $70,400 Public Records
• 2001-04-27 Sold (MLS) $70,400 MRIS
• 2001-04-03 Delisted — MRIS
• 2001-03-01 Listed $72,000 MRIS
• 2000-04-17 Delisted — MRIS
• 1998-09-29 Listed — MRIS
• 1997-10-24 Delisted — MRIS
• 1997-07-17 Listed — MRIS
• 1991-06-26 Sold (Public Records) $70,400 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,533 · +9.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.