7435 E Sundance Trl #403 · Carefree, AZ 85377

$440,000

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,062 sqft · Townhouse · 288 Days on market

Built 1980 Fair condition Est $777k · 43% under $433/mo HOA · 10% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.6/30.0
• Appreciation +8.1/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

PRICE REDUCTION! Located in the community of Las Torres in Carefree, within walking distance to downtown Carefree , easy access to restaurants, and shopping. Enter this 2 level end unit townhome through a private courtyard. It is a split-level entry, offering all tile flooring on lower level with large dining room opening to a great room that includes a fireplace and wet bar and access to your own private covered patio shaded by mature trees and landscaping. The kitchen has granite counter tops, all electric appliances including a built-in wine/beverage cooler. A half bath also located on lower level. Two large ensuite carpeted primary bedrooms located on upper level, each with a full bathroom with tile flooring, granite counter tops and large walk-in closets. Laundry area conveniently located near bedrooms. Large 2 car garage with electric door opener. The community offers a swimming pool, spa, firepit with seating area overlooking scenic mountains and a sport court.

Key facts

• Wet bar
• Split-level entry
• Tile flooring

Tags

• PRIVATE COURTYARD
• SPLIT-LEVEL ENTRY
• TILE FLOORING
• GREAT ROOM
• WET BAR
• PRIVATE COVERED PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $440k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $107 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $440k).
• Recommended offer: $387k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 4.0% in Carefree — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#58 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities D+, health & safety D+, commute F.
• Cave Creek Unified District (4244) (urban): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #13 of 249 in AZ (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 101 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $30k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $27k appreciation (6.1% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (6.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $123k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$48k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 288 days — a 12% lower offer ($387k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 17 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask is 15614% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $350k; 26% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $387,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 288 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.05%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $777,374
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7438 E Hum Rd #103	0.02mi	2/2.5	2,084 (+1%)	1mo	$578,000	$277	97
7438 E Hum Rd #105	0.02mi	2/2.5	1,940 (-6%)	21mo	$537,500	$277	72
1 Easy St #15	0.37mi	2/2.5	1,847 (-10%)	3mo	$640,000	$347	62
1 Easy St #11	0.37mi	2/2.5	1,847 (-10%)	3mo	$640,000	$347	62
1 Easy St #4	0.37mi	3/3.5 (+1)	2,191 (+6%)	3mo	$825,000	$377	61
1 Easy St #26	0.37mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,847 (-10%)	2mo	$800,000	$433	59
1 Easy St #10	0.37mi	2/2.5	1,847 (-10%)	19mo	$854,740	$463	50
1 Easy St #8	0.37mi	3/3.5 (+1)	2,191 (+6%)	17mo	$951,575	$434	49
1 Easy St #25	0.37mi	3/3.5 (+1)	2,283 (+11%)	16mo	$875,000	$383	43
36601 N Mule Train Rd Unit D21	0.75mi	2/3.0	1,970 (-4%)	24mo	$585,000	$297	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.13% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.12×
• Total profit: $137,646
• Equity at exit: $280,254

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.24×
• Total profit: $399,293
• Equity at exit: $511,410

Cash invested: $123,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85377

• Home prices YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 101
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,533 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,307
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$550 /mo · $6,600/yr
• Insurance: −$183
• HOA: −$433
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$952
• Net cashflow: $107

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,397

Max offer price $440,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $411	-5% $259	+0% $107	+5% $-45	+10% $-197
Rent	-10% $-251	-5% $-72	+0% $107	+5% $286	+10% $466
Rate	-1.0pp $329	-0.5pp $219	base $107	+0.5pp $-7	+1.0pp $-123

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $110,000
• Closing costs: $13,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7402 Hum Rd Carefree, AZ	2.0	2.0	1737	$2,800	$1.61	23d	1	0.07mi
37212 N Tranquil Trl Unit 18 Carefree, AZ	2.0	2.0	1456	$4,000	$2.75	12d	1	0.25mi
1 Easy St #2 Carefree, AZ	2.0	2.5	1847	$4,000	$2.17	5d	1	0.33mi
1 Easy St #30 Carefree, AZ	3.0	3.5	2191	$8,000	$3.65	45d	1	0.33mi
1 Easy St #19 Carefree, AZ	3.0	2.5	1847	$3,900	$2.11	9d	1	0.33mi
1 Easy St #15 Carefree, AZ	2.0	2.5	1847	$3,650	$1.98	9d	1	0.33mi
36601 Mule Train Rd Unit B20 Carefree, AZ	2.0	3.0	1970	$4,000	$2.03	45d	1	0.77mi
36601 Mule Train Rd Unit B19 Carefree, AZ	2.0	2.5	1970	$5,500	$2.79	0d	1	0.77mi
36601 Mule Train Rd Unit A5 Carefree, AZ	2.0	2.5	1970	$4,950	$2.51	45d	1	0.77mi
36601 Mule Train Rd Unit C16 Carefree, AZ	2.0	3.0	1970	$5,650	$2.87	45d	1	0.77mi
36601 Mule Train Rd Unit B16 Carefree, AZ	2.0	3.0	1970	$4,500	$2.28	45d	1	0.77mi
36601 N Mule Train Rd Unit 29C Carefree, AZ	2.0	2.5	1970	$3,900	$1.98	45d	1	0.77mi
36601 N Mule Train Rd Unit 12C Carefree, AZ	2.0	2.5	2100	$5,500	$2.62	45d	1	0.77mi
36601 Mule Train Rd Unit A32 Carefree, AZ	2.0	2.5	1970	$3,800	$1.93	45d	1	0.77mi
1314 Coyote Pass Carefree, AZ	3.0	3.5	2786	$12,000	$4.31	45d	1	1.14mi
6525 E Cave Creek Rd Cave Creek, AZ	2.0	2.5	2380	$6,000	$2.52	45d	1	1.24mi
1404 Boulder Pass Carefree, AZ	3.0	2.5	2862	$12,000	$4.19	45d	1	1.35mi
1725 E Staghorn Ln Carefree, AZ	2.0	2.0	1690	$9,500	$5.62	45d	1	1.39mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $433 · $5,196/yr
• Likely covers: electriclandscapingpool

Listing history 38 events

1. 2026-05-31
   days on market $440,000 Active 288 DOM
2. 2026-04-13
   historical $2,800
3. 2026-04-05
   price $440,000 985-char remark

   Show marketing remark (985 chars)

   PRICE REDUCTION! Located in the community of Las Torres in Carefree, within walking distance to downtown Carefree , easy access to restaurants, and shopping. Enter this 2 level end unit townhome through a private courtyard. It is a split-level entry, offering all tile flooring on lower level with large dining room opening to a great room that includes a fireplace and wet bar and access to your own private covered patio shaded by mature trees and landscaping. The kitchen has granite counter tops, all electric appliances including a built-in wine/beverage cooler. A half bath also located on lower level. Two large ensuite carpeted primary bedrooms located on upper level, each with a full bathroom with tile flooring, granite counter tops and large walk-in closets. Laundry area conveniently located near bedrooms. Large 2 car garage with electric door opener. The community offers a swimming pool, spa, firepit with seating area overlooking scenic mountains and a sport court.

4. 2025-10-14
   listed $2,800
5. 2025-08-16
   listed $450,000 Active 985-char remark

   Show marketing remark (985 chars)

   PRICE REDUCTION! Located in the community of Las Torres in Carefree, within walking distance to downtown Carefree , easy access to restaurants, and shopping. Enter this 2 level end unit townhome through a private courtyard. It is a split-level entry, offering all tile flooring on lower level with large dining room opening to a great room that includes a fireplace and wet bar and access to your own private covered patio shaded by mature trees and landscaping. The kitchen has granite counter tops, all electric appliances including a built-in wine/beverage cooler. A half bath also located on lower level. Two large ensuite carpeted primary bedrooms located on upper level, each with a full bathroom with tile flooring, granite counter tops and large walk-in closets. Laundry area conveniently located near bedrooms. Large 2 car garage with electric door opener. The community offers a swimming pool, spa, firepit with seating area overlooking scenic mountains and a sport court.

6. 2025-07-01
   historical
7. 2024-10-06
   listed $480,000 Active
8. 2022-11-12
   historical
9. 2022-08-02
   price $509,000
10. 2022-08-01
    status Active
11. 2022-07-25
    historical
12. 2022-06-29
    listed $539,000 Active
13. 2022-06-08
    historical
14. 2022-06-03
    listed $549,000 Active
15. 2019-11-23
    historical
16. 2019-10-11
    listed $305,000 Active
17. 2014-03-11
    historical
18. 2013-11-18
    listed $255,000 Active
19. 2013-08-17
    historical
20. 2013-03-30
    price $258,000
21. 2012-11-28
    listed $260,000 Active
22. 2012-08-20
    historical
23. 2012-03-08
    listed $260,000 Active
24. 2011-08-01
    historical
25. 2011-04-17
    price $260,000
26. 2010-10-23
    listed $285,900 Active
27. 2009-07-31
    historical
28. 2008-11-28
    listed $320,000
29. 2008-08-04
    historical
30. 2007-11-05
    listed $320,000
31. 2007-08-01
    historical
32. 2007-02-27
    listed $365,000
33. 2007-02-27
    historical
34. 2006-06-18
    listed $365,000
35. 2006-04-28
    soldstatus $350,000
36. 2006-02-13
    listed $350,000
37. 2006-02-13
    historical
38. 2005-12-13
    listed $353,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $54,397
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,647
• − Property taxes: −$6,600
• − Insurance: −$2,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,352
• − Management: −$4,352
• − HOA: −$5,196
• − Depreciation: −$12,800
• Taxable loss: −$5,749
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,380
• After-tax cash flow: $2,669/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This 2-level end unit townhome requires moderate repairs and maintenance to improve its condition and value. The property is located in a desirable community with easy access to downtown Carefree and amenities.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Kitchen cabinets — Worn cabinet hardware
• Minor Bathroom vanity — Worn cabinet hardware
• Minor Landscaping — Overgrown plants

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal
• Resale Replace cabinet hardware — Improves aesthetics
• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and creates a more inviting atmosphere

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen cabinets · Worn cabinet hardware	Minor	$500–3,000
Bathroom vanity · Worn cabinet hardware	Minor	$500–3,000
Landscaping · Overgrown plants	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$1,500–9,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal ↑
• Resale Replace cabinet hardware — Improves aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and creates a more inviting atmosphere ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cave Creek Unified District (4244)
• NCES district ID: 0400001
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $102,788
• Composite: 54.46/100
• National rank: #1351
• State rank: #13 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Carefree

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #58
• US rank: #9958

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carefree, AZ
• City population: 3,452
• Population (ZIP): 3,452

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Asian 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 4% Italian 4% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.13%
• Current HPI: 332.8138
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-99.2% since first listed

37 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Rental Removed $2,800 ARMLS
• 2026-04-05 Price Changed $440,000 ARMLS
• 2025-10-14 Listed for Rent $2,800 ARMLS
• 2025-08-16 Listed $450,000 ARMLS
• 2025-07-01 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2024-10-06 Listed $480,000 ARMLS
• 2022-11-12 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2022-08-02 Price Changed $509,000 ARMLS
• 2022-08-01 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2022-07-25 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2022-06-29 Listed $539,000 ARMLS
• 2022-06-08 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2022-06-03 Listed $549,000 ARMLS
• 2019-11-23 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2019-10-11 Listed $305,000 ARMLS
• 2014-03-11 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2013-11-18 Listed $255,000 ARMLS
• 2013-08-17 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2013-03-30 Price Changed $258,000 ARMLS
• 2012-11-28 Listed $260,000 ARMLS
• 2012-08-20 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2012-03-08 Listed $260,000 ARMLS
• 2011-08-01 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2011-04-17 Price Changed $260,000 ARMLS
• 2010-10-23 Listed $285,900 ARMLS
• 2009-07-31 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2008-11-28 Listed $320,000 ARMLS
• 2008-08-04 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2007-11-05 Listed $320,000 ARMLS
• 2007-08-01 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2007-02-27 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2007-02-27 Listed $365,000 ARMLS
• 2006-06-18 Listed $365,000 ARMLS
• 2006-04-28 Sold (MLS) $350,000 ARMLS
• 2006-02-13 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2006-02-13 Listed $350,000 ARMLS
• 2005-12-13 Listed $353,000 ARMLS