456 Fleming Ave NE · Roanoke, VA 24012

$199,950

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,146 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1954 0.45 ac lot Est $211k · 5% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.8/30.0
• ARV discount +9.8/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautifully updated inside. Gleaming refinished HW in LR, DR, hallways & 3 BR's. New vinyl floors in the kitchen & bath, Fresh paint throughout. Updated lighting & bath fixtures. Kitchen redesigned w/ cabinets & counter top, sink & fixtures. SS appliances. Full open unfinished basement w/ laundry hookups. HUGE fenced backyard w/ play space, garden space, storage bld, shed & clothes line.

Key facts

• Unfinished basement
• Storage shed
• Hardwood floors

Tags

• BRICK RANCH
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• UNFINISHED BASEMENT
• OVERSIZED FLAT BACKYARD
• STORAGE SHED

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Electric heat pump for heating and cooling
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 1954
• Exterior features: 0.45-acre lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Flooring: Tile flooring; Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Heat pump cooling (electric)
• Interior features: Storage; Full-view metal door; Insulated, tilt-in windows

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-127 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $178k (11.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $155k (22.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $155k (22.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 4.2% in Roanoke — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#163 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: amenities C-, employment D, crime F.
• Roanoke City Public School District (urban): math 40% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #102 of 131 in VA (top 78%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Monterey Elementary (math 47% / reading 54%, grade D+, #737 of 1,108 statewide, top 67%, 490 students, 100% FRL); Breckinridge Middle (math 23% / reading 52%, grade F, #315 of 342 statewide, top 93%, 624 students, 99% FRL); William Fleming High (math 66% / reading 68%, grade B, #185 of 319 statewide, top 61%, 1,911 students, 96% FRL) — zoned schools average 98% FRL vs 67% district-wide (32 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.5%/yr); 194 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 113 units permitted in Roanoke city in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($53k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Roanoke County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $112k; list at $200k implies a 79% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $154,980 (22.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.53%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.72%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $210,864
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
173 Trinkle Ave NE	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,064 (-7%)	5mo	$232,000	$218	72
3323 Collingwood St NE	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,200 (+5%)	2mo	$270,000	$225	67
3120 Plantation Rd NE	0.50mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,198 (+4%)	2mo	$143,000	$119	62
4104 Old Mountain Rd NE	0.57mi	3/1.0	1,144 (-0%)	13mo	$210,000	$184	62
3112 Plantation Rd NE	0.52mi	3/1.5	1,072 (-6%)	7mo	$160,000	$149	57
218 Wildhurst Ave NE	0.55mi	3/1.0	1,066 (-7%)	13mo	$126,000	$118	52
3222 Plantation Rd NE	0.43mi	3/1.0	1,022 (-11%)	12mo	$195,000	$191	52
223 Oaklawn Ave NE	0.51mi	3/1.0	1,008 (-12%)	8mo	$170,000	$169	49
4348 Old Mountain Rd NE	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,021 (-11%)	4mo	$235,000	$230	44
3103 Shenandoah Valley Ave NE	0.55mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,036 (-10%)	13mo	$49,000	$47	43
2912 Mansfield St NE	0.75mi	3/1.0	1,061 (-7%)	15mo	$238,000	$224	40
2820 Luray St NE	0.70mi	3/1.0	983 (-14%)	10mo	$171,000	$174	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-32,282
• Equity at exit: $29,813

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.98×
• Total profit: $-1,214
• Equity at exit: $17,288

Cash invested: $55,986 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24012

• Rents YoY: 10.5%
• Active inventory: 194
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,550 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$219 /mo · $2,631/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$325
• Net cashflow: $-127

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,710

Max offer price $177,549

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,988
• Closing costs: $5,998
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3816 Plantation Rd NE Roanoke, VA	2.0	2.0	1267	$1,700	$1.34	43d	1	0.13mi
709 Drew Ave NE Apt 2 Roanoke, VA	2.0	1.0	825	$1,050	$1.27	43d	1	0.26mi
3323 Collingwood St NE Roanoke, VA	3.0	2.0	1200	$2,150	$1.79	43d	1	0.42mi
3228 Oliver Rd NE Roanoke, VA	3.0	1.0	1017	$1,150	$1.13	21d	1	0.45mi
4532 Tacoma Ave NE Roanoke, VA	3.0	1.0	1092	$1,550	$1.42	13d	1	0.49mi
3111 Ellsworth St NE Roanoke, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0	662	$1,199	$1.81	13d	2	0.62mi
106 Lee Ave NE Apt 10 Roanoke, VA	2.0	1.5	902	$1,125	$1.25	13d	1	0.75mi
106 Lee Ave NE Apt 10 Roanoke, VA	2.0	1.5	820	$1,160	$1.41	43d	1	0.75mi
2716 Edison St NE Unit & 2718 Roanoke, VA	2.0	1.5	864	$1,225	$1.42	43d	1	0.97mi
812 Whitney Ave NW Roanoke, VA	2.0	1.0	825	$1,100	$1.33	13d	1	1.15mi
2109 Colgate St NE Roanoke, VA	3.0	1.0	1240	$1,700	$1.37	13d	1	1.28mi
2916 Courtland Rd NW Roanoke, VA	2.0	1.0	722	$1,123	$1.56	21d	1	1.30mi
44 Forest Hill Ave NE Roanoke, VA	2.0	1.0	768	$1,150	$1.50	21d	1	1.31mi
4823 Rutgers St NW Roanoke, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0	771	$1,399	$1.81	13d	5	1.37mi
5125 Airport Rd NW Roanoke, VA	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,695	$1.70	13d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-18
   remarks 690-char remark
2. 2026-06-18
   listed $199,950 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,631 · $219/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,631 · $219/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,598
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,200
• − Property taxes: −$2,631
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,488
• − Management: −$1,488
• − Depreciation: −$5,817
• Taxable loss: −$5,026
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,206
• After-tax cash flow: $-315/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Roanoke City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103300
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -38.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $38,592
• Composite: 40.8/100
• National rank: #3639
• State rank: #102 of 131 in VA

Livability — Roanoke

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #163
• US rank: #5055

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Roanoke, VA
• County: Roanoke City · 101,625 people
• City population: 168,930
• Metro: Roanoke, VA
• Population (ZIP): 28,235
• Household income: $52,973
• Rent vs Own: 47.2% rent · 52.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1360.0

Population outlook (Roanoke County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 106,094 people
• By 2030: 108,927 · +2.7%
• By 2040: 114,104 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 118,032 · +11.3%
• By 2075: 123,363 · +16.3%
• By 2100: 116,827 · +10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Black 16% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 13% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Vietnamese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Roanoke

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.6) · D 61.1% · R 37.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: 23.4pp · 2024: 23.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.6 2020: D+25.8 2016: D+17.6 2012: D+21.5 2008: D+23.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -137.94%
• Current HPI: 186.9007
• Rent YoY: ▲ 10.46%
• Metro: Roanoke, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+399.9% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Listed $199,950 MLSRV
• 2015-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $112,000 Public Records
• 2015-08-31 Sold (MLS) $112,000 MLSRV
• 2015-07-29 Listed $114,950 MLSRV
• 2015-07-28 Listing Removed — MLSRV
• 2015-04-28 Listed $114,950 MLSRV
• 1979-08-09 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,631 · +5.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.