237 Palm Dr · Marlin, TX 76661

$49,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,296 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1975 7,057 sqft lot Est $73k · 32% under ↓ 35% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +7.1/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks

Attention Investors & DIY Enthusiasts: Incredible Value-Add Opportunity Near Waco! Bring your design ideas, toolbelt, and vision to 237 Palm Dr, a ranch-style home offering the perfect canvas for a custom renovation. Situated in the established Marlin Country Club neighborhood, this property features an exceptional layout, a solid concrete slab foundation, and massive equity upside for a flipper, landlord, or ambitious homeowner looking to build instant sweat equity. Properties with this much structural simplicity, and financial freedom don't hit the market often. Schedule your walkthrough today and unlock the hidden potential The property is sold As-Is, Where-Is. Seller has no

Key facts

• Custom renovation
• 7,057 sq ft lot
• Built 1975

Tags

• CUSTOM RENOVATION
• SOLID CONCRETE SLAB FOUNDATION

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property listed as real estate owned / in foreclosure; For sale, possession at closing/funding
• Financial info: Accepts cash and conventional financing; No second mortgage listed
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2-car garage
• Utilities: City sewer; Not in a municipal utility district
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; One story; Built in 1975
• Construction: Built in 1975
• Exterior features: Lot under 0.5 acre (approximately 0.162 acre); Subdivision: Marlin County Club #1

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen; No appliances included
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on level 1 (12 x 12); Bedroom on level 1 (11 x 11); Bedroom on level 1 (11 x 11)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; One living area; One dining area; Total of 5 rooms
• Laundry & utility: No laundry appliances listed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $748 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $50k).
• Cap rate 24.3% vs local median 5.7% in Marlin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,146 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime B+, housing B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Marlin ISD (town): math 21% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #779 of 826 in TX (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 84% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Marlin El (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #3,052 of 4,322 statewide, top 74%, 474 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 84% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 122 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Falls County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($345 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (4.2% local appreciation)).
• Falls County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 7% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $49,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.77% ✓
• Cap rate: 24.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 64.28%
• DSCR: 3.86
• GRM: 3.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $73,472
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
235 Northridge Ln	0.36mi	3/2.0	2,152 (-6%)	4mo	$69,900	$32	70

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.17% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 70.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.07×
• Total profit: $56,861
• Equity at exit: $25,799

10-year hold

• IRR: 68.8%
• Equity multiple: 10.44×
• Total profit: $131,939
• Equity at exit: $42,599

Cash invested: $13,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76661

• Home prices YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 122
• Price-to-rent: 3.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,384 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$62 /mo · $748/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$291
• Net cashflow: $748

Break-even live

Break-even rent $437

Max offer price $49,900

Occupancy floor 41%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,475
• Closing costs: $1,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-19
   remarks 695-char remark
2. 2026-06-19
   pricestatusdays on marketlisting id $49,900 Active 1 DOM
3. 2026-04-16
   status Pending
4. 2026-04-10
   price $43,160
5. 2026-03-19
   listed $46,480 Active
6. 2026-02-11
   historical
7. 2026-01-08
   price $53,120
8. 2025-11-13
   price $56,440
9. 2025-10-14
   price $59,760
10. 2025-10-10
    status Active
11. 2025-09-15
    price $63,080
12. 2025-08-12
    listed $66,400 Active
13. 2005-05-03
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,607
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,795
• − Property taxes: −$748
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,329
• − Management: −$1,329
• − Depreciation: −$1,452
• Taxable income: $8,705
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,089
• After-tax cash flow: $6,892/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marlin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4829130
• Math proficiency: 21% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $29,255
• Composite: 17.18/100
• National rank: #9106
• State rank: #779 of 826 in TX

Livability — Marlin

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1146
• US rank: #20161

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Marlin, TX
• Population (ZIP): 7,266

Population outlook (Falls County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,782 people
• By 2030: 15,209 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 14,276 · -9.5%
• By 2050: 13,645 · -13.5%
• By 2075: 13,724 · -13.0%
• By 2100: 13,005 · -17.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 35% Hispanic / Latino 30% White 30% Two or more races 13% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 15%

Political lean MEDSL · Falls

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+44.7) · D 27.3% · R 72.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.0pp toward R · 2008: -19.7pp · 2024: -44.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+44.7 2020: R+37.1 2016: R+33.6 2012: R+24.4 2008: R+19.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.17%
• Current HPI: 126.9217
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-35.0% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $43,160 NTREIS
• 2026-03-19 Listed $46,480 NTREIS
• 2026-02-11 Listing Removed — CTXMLS
• 2026-01-08 Price Changed $53,120 CTXMLS
• 2025-11-13 Price Changed $56,440 CTXMLS
• 2025-10-14 Price Changed $59,760 CTXMLS
• 2025-10-10 Relisted — CTXMLS
• 2025-09-15 Price Changed $63,080 CTXMLS
• 2025-08-12 Listed $66,400 CTXMLS
• 2005-05-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,899 · +2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.