2305 Castle Ln · St. Joseph, MO 64503

$99,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,517 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1958 8,276 sqft lot $66/sqft · 42% below area Est $173k · 42% under ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.0/10.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

A sweet ranch-style home with 4-beds & 2-full baths on the main level! Vinyl siding, partially fenced backyard, patio, covered porch, off street parking in driveway. Great location, great neighborhood!

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Off street parking
• Vinyl siding

Tags

• VINYL SIDING
• PARTIALLY FENCED BACKYARD
• COVERED PORCH
• OFF STREET PARKING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $354 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Cap rate 10.5% vs local median 4.7% in St. Joseph — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Joseph (urban): math 28% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #241 of 324 in MO (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 89 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 70 units permitted in Buchanan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Buchanan County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $47k (32%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $99,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.19%
• DSCR: 1.68
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $173,407
• List price: $99,900
• Delta: -26.76%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2314 Bryce Rd	0.06mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,549 (+2%)	6mo	$249,900	$161	80
2506 Oak St	0.51mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,564 (+3%)	0mo	$170,000	$109	66
3214 Monterey St	0.60mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,500 (-1%)	0mo	$189,900	$127	63
2621 Belle St	0.47mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,486 (-2%)	5mo	$150,000	$101	62
2715 Doniphan Ave	0.44mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,560 (+3%)	10mo	$194,900	$125	61
2725 Sacramento St	0.59mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,536 (+1%)	6mo	$195,000	$127	58
3207 Doniphan Ave	0.52mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,456 (-4%)	10mo	$200,000	$137	55
2764 Jackson St	0.34mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,612 (+6%)	12mo	$180,000	$112	55
2701 Renick St	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,428 (-6%)	11mo	$170,000	$119	44
1514 S 30th St	0.50mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,300 (-14%)	4mo	$219,900	$169	42
1206 S Noyes Blvd	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,434 (-6%)	12mo	$210,000	$146	42
2806 Morningside Dr	0.62mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,744 (+15%)	10mo	$219,900	$126	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.23×
• Total profit: $6,371
• Equity at exit: $14,895

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.24×
• Total profit: $34,621
• Equity at exit: $8,638

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 64503

• Active inventory: 89
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,300 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$107 /mo · $1,289/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$273
• Net cashflow: $354

Break-even live

Break-even rent $852

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 68%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1616 S 25th St Saint Joseph, MO	3.0	1.0	1500	$1,300	$0.87	43d	1	0.61mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $99,900 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,900 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on marketlisting id $99,900 Active 1 DOM
4. 2026-06-03
   days on market $127,000 Active 76 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $127,000 Active 75 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $127,000 Active 74 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $127,000 Active 73 DOM
8. 2026-05-30
   days on market $127,000 Active 72 DOM
9. 2026-05-14
   price $127,000 207-char remark

   Show marketing remark (207 chars)

   A sweet ranch-style home with 4-beds & 2-full baths on the main level! Vinyl siding, partially fenced backyard, patio, covered porch, off street parking in driveway. Great location, great neighborhood!

10. 2026-04-23
    status Active 207-char remark

    Show marketing remark (207 chars)

    A sweet ranch-style home with 4-beds & 2-full baths on the main level! Vinyl siding, partially fenced backyard, patio, covered porch, off street parking in driveway. Great location, great neighborhood!

11. 2026-04-13
    status Pending 207-char remark

    Show marketing remark (207 chars)

    A sweet ranch-style home with 4-beds & 2-full baths on the main level! Vinyl siding, partially fenced backyard, patio, covered porch, off street parking in driveway. Great location, great neighborhood!

12. 2026-03-09
    listed $147,000 Active 207-char remark

    Show marketing remark (207 chars)

    A sweet ranch-style home with 4-beds & 2-full baths on the main level! Vinyl siding, partially fenced backyard, patio, covered porch, off street parking in driveway. Great location, great neighborhood!

13. 1962-10-29
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,289 · $107/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,289 · $107/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$1,289
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,248
• − Management: −$1,248
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable income: $2,813
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$675
• After-tax cash flow: $3,574/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Joseph
• NCES district ID: 2927060
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $43,007
• Composite: 27.99/100
• National rank: #6853
• State rank: #241 of 324 in MO

Livability — St. Joseph

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Joseph, MO
• City population: 44,382
• Population (ZIP): 11,921

Population outlook (Buchanan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 89,041 people
• By 2030: 88,401 · -0.7%
• By 2040: 86,220 · -3.2%
• By 2050: 83,603 · -6.1%
• By 2075: 76,750 · -13.8%
• By 2100: 67,623 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Buchanan

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.0) · D 35.2% · R 63.3% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.2pp toward R · 2008: 0.1pp · 2024: -28.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.0 2020: R+24.6 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+8.7 2008: D+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -128.03%
• Current HPI: 185.3921
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-13.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $127,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-23 Relisted — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-13 Pending — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-09 Listed $147,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1962-10-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,289 · +20.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.