414 Warr St · Lewistown Heights, MT 59457

$175,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,479 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 573 Days on market

Built 1930 9,583 sqft lot ↓ 35% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Wood floors salvaged
• 9,583 sq ft lot
• Built 1930

Tags

• WOOD FLOORS SALVAGED
• ONE-OF-A-KIND COUNTERTOPS
• COZY WOOD-BURNING FIREPLACE
• ABUNDANT STORAGE OPTIONS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Security: Smoke detectors; Carbon monoxide detectors
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two levels
• Construction: Frame and stucco construction; Permanent foundation; Built (year not provided)
• Exterior features: Outbuilding; Public maintained road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Hardwood floors
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas forced-air heating; Window cooling units
• Interior features: Window coverings; Full basement with sump pump; 11 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $78 ($939/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $143k (18.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $143k (18.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#140 in MT) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D+, amenities F.
• Lewistown Elementary (town): math 44% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #37 of 116 in MT (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Highland Park School (math 42% / reading 47%, grade F, #117 of 293 statewide, top 44%, 304 students, 0% FRL); Lewis & Clark School (math 52% / reading 57%, grade B-, #15 of 146 statewide, top 14%, 210 students, 0% FRL); Fergus High School (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #108 of 132 statewide, top 83%, 356 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 32% district-wide (32 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 136 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Fergus County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fergus County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 573 days — a 12% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $124k (41%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $142,936 (18.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 573 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.92%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-23,450
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-14,312
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Montana: 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; no rent control; preempted; rural-skewed market.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 59457

• Active inventory: 136
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,429 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$60 /mo · $724/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$300
• Net cashflow: $78

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,330

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $177	-5% $128	+0% $78	+5% $29	+10% $-21
Rent	-10% $-35	-5% $22	+0% $78	+5% $135	+10% $191
Rate	-1.0pp $166	-0.5pp $123	base $78	+0.5pp $33	+1.0pp $-13

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $175,000 Active 573 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   pricedays on market $175,000 Active 572 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $195,000 Active 570 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $195,000 Active 569 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $195,000 Active 568 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $195,000 Active 567 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $195,000 Active 565 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $195,000 Active 564 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $195,000 Active 561 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $195,000 Active 560 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    listed $195,000 Active 559 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MT · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $724 · $60/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,470 · $122/mo
• Expected delta: +$746/yr (+$62/mo · 103.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,152
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$724
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,372
• − Management: −$1,372
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$2,085
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$500
• After-tax cash flow: $1,439/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lewistown Elementary
• NCES district ID: 3016490
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,237
• Composite: 40.99/100
• National rank: #3593
• State rank: #37 of 116 in MT

Livability — Lewistown Heights

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #140
• US rank: #13809

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lewistown Heights, MT
• Population (ZIP): 9,215

Population outlook (Fergus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,955 people
• By 2030: 10,722 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 10,274 · -6.2%
• By 2050: 9,993 · -8.8%
• By 2075: 10,766 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 10,922 · -0.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 2% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 8% Slovak 6% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fergus

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.3) · D 22.7% · R 74.0% · Other 3.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.4pp toward R · 2008: -34.9pp · 2024: -51.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.3 2020: R+51.6 2016: R+52.6 2012: R+43.3 2008: R+34.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -137.83%
• Current HPI: 210.4278
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.41%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology / Analytics	1	$2B

Price history

-34.8% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-06 Relisted — HHLMLS
• 2026-06-05 Pending — HHLMLS
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $195,000 HHLMLS
• 2025-10-12 Price Changed $225,000 HHLMLS
• 2025-09-26 Price Changed $250,000 HHLMLS
• 2025-08-29 Relisted — HHLMLS
• 2025-07-07 Price Changed $270,000 HHLMLS
• 2024-11-22 Price Changed $284,000 HHLMLS
• 2024-10-28 Listed $299,000 HHLMLS
• 2006-05-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $724 · -24.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.