1957 Memorial Dr · St. Johnsbury, VT 05819

$167,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,352 sqft · SingleFamily · 658 Days on market

Built 1850 7,840 sqft lot ↓ 37% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Appreciation +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

A real sweet Circa 1850's village house with major upgrades in last year! TOTAL ELECTRICAL UPGRADE COMPLETE! NEW OIL HOT AIR FURNACE INSTALLED IN FALL 2024. NEW HOT WATER TANK . AND NEW FUEL TANK AND CONCRETE SLAB IN BASEMENT. PLUMBING UPGRADE. Move-in ready property suitable for residential or commercial use. Beautiful softwood floors. First floor laundry. Spacious eat-in kitchen with a "pass-thru" to the formal dining room. Large livingroom with open stairway. First floor bedroom or large den. TWO Large walk-in closets on second floor. Ample storage. Additional 2nd floor space waiting for your finish. 2025 taxes $2929.30.

Key facts

• Walk-in cedar closet
• Curved wall feature
• 7,840 sq ft lot

Tags

• CURVED WALL FEATURE
• WALK-IN CEDAR CLOSET

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Plenty of parking and turnaround space (shared drive access)
• Utilities: Public water on-site; Shared septic system; Circuit breaker electrical panel; served by GMP; High-speed internet available; cable and telephone available; Fuel provider: Fred's Energy
• Home design: Farmhouse style; Existing structure; Brown exterior color; Metal roof
• Construction: Originally built in 1850; Exterior materials include asphalt, cedar, shingle siding and wood; Foundation and basement details include concrete and dirt floors
• Exterior features: Level lot; River frontage on the Passumpsic River (directly adjoining); Neighboring businesses nearby; In town, near shopping, public transportation, and hospital; Shared/semi-private paved driveway with right-of-way access; Road frontage on a paved public road (66 ft)

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Electric stove
• Bedrooms: Main-level bedroom; Two bedrooms on the second level
• Flooring: Softwood flooring; Vinyl flooring; Other flooring types
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Oil heat with forced air
• Interior features: 9 total rooms; Crawl space and unfinished basement with interior access, concrete and dirt floors, interior stairs, and a sump pump
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area located in the bathroom; Electric water heater (owned)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $168k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $136 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $164k (2.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $148k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 3.4% in St. Johnsbury — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Zoned schools: St. Johnsbury School (math 19% / reading 37%, grade F, #149 of 192 statewide, top 78%, 702 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: 66 active listings in the ZIP; 112 units permitted in Caledonia County in 2024 (15 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.4%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Caledonia County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 658 days — a 12% lower offer ($148k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $97k (37%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1850 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $147,752 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 658 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1850 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
6. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
7. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.47%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $341,312
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
86 Sanger Cir	0.28mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,274 (-6%)	12mo	$287,500	$226	62
96 Stetson Ter	0.54mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,283 (-5%)	6mo	$199,000	$155	56
178 Sanger Cir	0.31mi	3/1.5	1,495 (+11%)	19mo	$280,000	$187	51
1695 Breezy Hill Rd	0.42mi	3/1.5	1,551 (+15%)	19mo	$245,000	$158	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.41% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-14,355
• Equity at exit: $29,471

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.05×
• Total profit: $2,390
• Equity at exit: $22,255

Cash invested: $47,012 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Vermont: 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause in Burlington (2022); strong habitability.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 05819

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 66
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,641 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$880
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$210 /mo · $2,518/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$345
• Net cashflow: $136

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,469

Max offer price $167,900

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $252	-5% $194	+0% $136	+5% $78	+10% $20
Rent	-10% $6	-5% $71	+0% $136	+5% $201	+10% $266
Rate	-1.0pp $220	-0.5pp $179	base $136	+0.5pp $92	+1.0pp $48

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,975
• Closing costs: $5,037
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $167,900 Active 658 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $167,900 Active 657 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $167,900 Active 655 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $167,900 Active 654 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $167,900 Active 653 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $167,900 Active 652 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $167,900 Active 651 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $167,900 Active 650 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $167,900 Active 649 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $167,900 Active 646 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $167,900 Active 645 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $167,900 Active 644 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $167,900 Active 643 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $167,900 Active 640 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $167,900 Active 639 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $167,900 Active 638 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $167,900 Active 637 DOM
18. 2026-03-01
    status Active
19. 2026-02-28
    historical
20. 2025-08-29
    price $167,900
21. 2025-08-16
    price $159,900
22. 2025-08-03
    price $179,200
23. 2025-05-02
    price $182,500
24. 2025-02-08
    price $164,500
25. 2025-01-08
    price $179,900
26. 2024-12-05
    price $199,900
27. 2024-11-11
    price $214,900
28. 2024-09-27
    price $244,900
29. 2024-08-29
    listed $264,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,690
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,405
• − Property taxes: −$2,518
• − Insurance: −$840
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,575
• − Management: −$1,575
• − Depreciation: −$4,884
• Taxable loss: −$1,108
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$266
• After-tax cash flow: $1,897/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — St. Johnsbury

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Johnsbury, VT
• Population (ZIP): 9,323

Population outlook (Caledonia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 29,828 people
• By 2030: 28,820 · -3.4%
• By 2040: 26,262 · -12.0%
• By 2050: 23,780 · -20.3%
• By 2075: 18,516 · -37.9%
• By 2100: 13,647 · -54.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 11% Slovak 6% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Caledonia

• 2024 margin: D (+12.4) · D 54.5% · R 42.0% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.8pp toward R · 2008: 23.3pp · 2024: 12.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.4 2020: D+15.2 2016: D+7.0 2012: D+22.9 2008: D+23.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.41%
• Current HPI: 291.8894
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-36.6% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-01 Relisted — PrimeMLS
• 2026-02-28 Delisted — PrimeMLS
• 2025-08-29 Price Changed $167,900 PrimeMLS
• 2025-08-16 Price Changed $159,900 PrimeMLS
• 2025-08-03 Price Changed $179,200 PrimeMLS
• 2025-05-02 Price Changed $182,500 PrimeMLS
• 2025-02-08 Price Changed $164,500 PrimeMLS
• 2025-01-08 Price Changed $179,900 PrimeMLS
• 2024-12-05 Price Changed $199,900 PrimeMLS
• 2024-11-11 Price Changed $214,900 PrimeMLS
• 2024-09-27 Price Changed $244,900 PrimeMLS
• 2024-08-29 Listed $264,900 PrimeMLS