Crestone II Plan · Winter Haven, FL 33884

$249,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,386 sqft · Townhouse · 56 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This new two-story townhome offers ample space to live and grow with a total of three bedrooms. The first level features a spacious and flexible open-concept layout shared between the kitchen, dining room and family room, maximizing the interior living space. Two secondary bedrooms and a lavish owner's suite featuring a full bathroom comprise the second floor.

Key facts

• Garage
• Listed 56 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $249,990

Exterior

• Parking: 1-car garage (1 parking space total)
• Home design: New construction plan: Crestone II; Model/plan home address at 3024 Captain Jax Way, Winter Haven, FL 33884
• Exterior features: Living area of 1386

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Open living area

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $250k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-42 ($-500/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $244k (2.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $222k (11.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $222k (11.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#291 in FL, #4,898 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: schools C-, employment C-, amenities F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 680 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $221,825 (11.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.43%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.9% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-45,517
• Equity at exit: $37,274

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-52,498
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $69,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33884

• Home prices YoY: -34.1%
• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 680
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,218 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$312 /mo · $3,750/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$466
• Net cashflow: $-42

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,271

Max offer price $243,961

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,498
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1172 Tyler Rd Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1509	$2,200	$1.46	10d	1	0.10mi
1993 Sarah St Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1838	$1,998	$1.09	23d	1	0.39mi
1708 Teagan Ln Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1555	$2,250	$1.45	23d	1	0.47mi
2122 Chris Dr Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1824	$2,030	$1.11	23d	1	0.62mi
2122 Chris Dr Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1801	$2,030	$1.13	3d	1	0.62mi
2102 Chris Dr Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1824	$2,100	$1.15	14d	1	0.63mi
4019 Penelope Ave Lake Wales, FL	4.0	2.0	1812	$1,950	$1.08	14d	1	0.78mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,990 Active 56 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,990 Active 55 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,990 Active 54 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,990 Active 53 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,990 Active 51 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $249,990 Active 48 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $249,990 Active 47 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $249,990 Active 46 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $249,990 Active 45 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $249,990 Active 42 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $249,990 Active 40 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,990 Active 39 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,990 Active 38 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,619
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,003
• − Property taxes: −$3,750
• − Insurance: −$2,047
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,130
• − Management: −$2,130
• − Depreciation: −$7,272
• Taxable loss: −$4,713
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,131
• After-tax cash flow: $631/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This new two-story townhome is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It offers ample space and is move-in ready, making it an attractive option for both buyers and renters.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property.
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Modern appliances improve the home's appeal to potential buyers.
• Resale Bathroom fixtures — Upgraded fixtures can attract more buyers and renters.
• Both Flooring replacement — Replacing worn-out flooring can improve the home's overall appearance and functionality.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property. ↑
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Modern appliances improve the home's appeal to potential buyers. ↑
• Resale Bathroom fixtures — Upgraded fixtures can attract more buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Flooring replacement — Replacing worn-out flooring can improve the home's overall appearance and functionality. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Winter Haven

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #291
• US rank: #4898

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Winter Haven, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 121,740
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 37,561
• Household income: $70,443
• Rent vs Own: 25.7% rent · 74.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 949.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 19% Black 14% Two or more races 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Hispanic 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 12% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -134.69%
• Current HPI: 260.1421
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.90%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B