528 Ave F · Markham, TX 77456

$153,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,244 sqft · SingleFamily

Built 1950 0.83 ac lot Est $211k · 27% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +8.7/10.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Large 4/2 home with extensive wood flooring. Updated kitchen with breakfast area. Open living/dining. Enjoy relaxing on the covered wrap around porch. Recently repainted inside and out. A metal barn - 2400 sq. ft. per CAD and covered RV parking is included. Large trees - quiet location. Property is in an Estate and will be sold as is. !!! $5000 ALLOWANCE FOR AIR CONDITIONER!!PLEASE PRIVATE REMARKS!!!

Key facts

• 0.83 acre lot
• Built 1950

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $153k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $132 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $150k (1.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $150k (1.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#180 in TX, #4,694 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Tidehaven ISD (rural): math 54% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #127 of 826 in TX (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Markham El (math 77% / reading 67%, grade A-, #110 of 4,322 statewide, top 3%, 254 students, 61% FRL); Tidehaven Int (math 44% / reading 50%, grade D+, #424 of 1,662 statewide, top 27%, 233 students, 67% FRL); Tidehaven H S (math 72% / reading 57%, grade B-, #199 of 1,632 statewide, top 14%, 274 students, 58% FRL) — zoned schools at 62% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 11 active listings in the ZIP; 153 units permitted in Matagorda County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $11k appreciation (7.3% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (7.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,495 (1.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.69%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $210,936
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
209 7th St E	0.25mi	4/2.0	2,172 (-3%)	6mo	$205,000	$94	78
40 Avenue H	0.34mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,431 (+8%)	12mo	$209,900	$86	55
159 Avenue L	0.55mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,102 (-6%)	18mo	$275,000	$131	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.31% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.51×
• Total profit: $64,715
• Equity at exit: $109,096

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.24×
• Total profit: $181,645
• Equity at exit: $210,076

Cash invested: $42,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77456

• Home prices YoY: 7.1%
• Active inventory: 11
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,505 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$802
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$191 /mo · $2,295/yr
• Insurance: −$64
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$316
• Net cashflow: $132

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,338

Max offer price $153,000

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $237	-5% $184	+0% $132	+5% $79	+10% $26
Rent	-10% $13	-5% $72	+0% $132	+5% $191	+10% $250
Rate	-1.0pp $209	-0.5pp $170	base $132	+0.5pp $92	+1.0pp $52

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,250
• Closing costs: $4,590
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,059
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,570
• − Property taxes: −$2,295
• − Insurance: −$765
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,445
• − Management: −$1,445
• − Depreciation: −$4,451
• Taxable loss: −$911
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$219
• After-tax cash flow: $1,797/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tidehaven ISD
• NCES district ID: 4842810
• Math proficiency: 54% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,006
• Composite: 45.73/100
• National rank: #2572
• State rank: #127 of 826 in TX

Livability — Markham

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #180
• US rank: #4694

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Markham, TX
• Population (ZIP): 1,447

Population outlook (Matagorda County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 37,148 people
• By 2030: 37,082 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 36,987 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 36,934 · -0.6%
• By 2075: 37,178 · +0.1%
• By 2100: 35,184 · -5.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 21%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Romanian 2%
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Matagorda

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.5) · D 24.3% · R 74.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.1pp toward R · 2008: -27.4pp · 2024: -50.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.5 2020: R+44.5 2016: R+40.7 2012: R+33.5 2008: R+27.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.31%
• Current HPI: 109.9126
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B