683 Knickerbocker Rd · Stillwater, NY 12154

$169,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 59 Days on market

Built 1985 1.26 ac lot $118/sqft · 48% below area Est $326k · 48% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +9.3/10.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great Location! With some sweat equity, this home offers endless potential. 3 bed 2 bath ranch on 1.26 acres with stunning Hudson River views. Large detached 2 car garage. New driveway, new garage doors. Many materials for finishing the interior are on site and ready for you to come make this home look brand new again. Convenient to the capital district. While updates are needed, this property is surrounded by high value homes, making it a prime opportunity to build equity or flip for profit. Perfect for investors or buyers ready to add value and build instant equity. Cash only. *Some photos have been digitally staged.

Key facts

• New driveway
• Hudson river views
• Detached garage

Tags

• HUDSON RIVER VIEWS
• DETACHED GARAGE
• NEW DRIVEWAY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $243 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• Recommended offer: $165k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#509 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Hoosic Valley Central School District (rural): math 53% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #304 of 590 in NY (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 16 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 405 units permitted in Rensselaer County in 2024 (224 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $14k appreciation (8.5% local appreciation)).
• Rensselaer County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (8.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($165k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $19k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $170k implies a 112% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $164,803 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.13%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $326,341
• List price: $169,900
• Delta: -47.94%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
331 Hudson Ave	0.55mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,455 (+1%)	18mo	$118,000	$81	51
444 Hudson Ave	0.68mi	3/3.0	1,456 (+1%)	18mo	$418,000	$287	44
337 Hudson Ave	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,600 (+11%)	22mo	$212,000	$133	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.5% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.91×
• Total profit: $90,958
• Equity at exit: $134,933

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.31×
• Total profit: $252,780
• Equity at exit: $273,628

Cash invested: $47,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12154

• Home prices YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 16
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,720 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$154 /mo · $1,846/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$361
• Net cashflow: $243

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,412

Max offer price $169,900

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $339	-5% $291	+0% $243	+5% $195	+10% $147
Rent	-10% $107	-5% $175	+0% $243	+5% $311	+10% $379
Rate	-1.0pp $329	-0.5pp $286	base $243	+0.5pp $199	+1.0pp $154

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,475
• Closing costs: $5,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
26 Penrose Ave Mechanicville, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,850	$1.54	15d	1	1.40mi
23 Warsaw Ave Mechanicville, NY	2.0	1.5	960	$1,550	$1.61	15d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $169,900 Active 59 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $169,900 Active 58 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,900 Active 57 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,900 Active 56 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $169,900 Active 54 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   statusdays on market $169,900 Active 51 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $169,900 Contingent 50 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $169,900 Contingent 49 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $169,900 Contingent 48 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $169,900 Contingent 44 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $169,900 Contingent 43 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $169,900 Contingent 42 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,900 Contingent 41 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,900 Contingent 40 DOM
15. 2026-05-15
    price $169,900 627-char remark

    Show marketing remark (627 chars)

    Great Location! With some sweat equity, this home offers endless potential. 3 bed 2 bath ranch on 1.26 acres with stunning Hudson River views. Large detached 2 car garage. New driveway, new garage doors. Many materials for finishing the interior are on site and ready for you to come make this home look brand new again. Convenient to the capital district. While updates are needed, this property is surrounded by high value homes, making it a prime opportunity to build equity or flip for profit. Perfect for investors or buyers ready to add value and build instant equity. Cash only. *Some photos have been digitally staged.

16. 2026-05-01
    price $179,900 627-char remark

    Show marketing remark (627 chars)

    Great Location! With some sweat equity, this home offers endless potential. 3 bed 2 bath ranch on 1.26 acres with stunning Hudson River views. Large detached 2 car garage. New driveway, new garage doors. Many materials for finishing the interior are on site and ready for you to come make this home look brand new again. Convenient to the capital district. While updates are needed, this property is surrounded by high value homes, making it a prime opportunity to build equity or flip for profit. Perfect for investors or buyers ready to add value and build instant equity. Cash only. *Some photos have been digitally staged.

17. 2026-04-17
    listed $189,000 Active 627-char remark

    Show marketing remark (627 chars)

    Great Location! With some sweat equity, this home offers endless potential. 3 bed 2 bath ranch on 1.26 acres with stunning Hudson River views. Large detached 2 car garage. New driveway, new garage doors. Many materials for finishing the interior are on site and ready for you to come make this home look brand new again. Convenient to the capital district. While updates are needed, this property is surrounded by high value homes, making it a prime opportunity to build equity or flip for profit. Perfect for investors or buyers ready to add value and build instant equity. Cash only. *Some photos have been digitally staged.

18. 2025-12-02
    status Active
19. 2025-11-08
    status Pending
20. 2025-11-08
    historical
21. 2025-09-22
    price $189,900
22. 2025-09-05
    listed $199,900 Active
23. 2023-05-08
    soldstatus $80,000 Closed
24. 2023-03-31
    status Pending
25. 2023-03-07
    price $89,500
26. 2023-02-07
    price $99,900
27. 2023-01-13
    historical
28. 2023-01-12
    listed $109,900 Active
29. 2022-12-31
    price $109,900
30. 2022-11-29
    listed $119,000 Active
31. 1996-01-30
    soldstatus $70,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,846 · $154/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,358 · $197/mo
• Expected delta: +$513/yr (+$43/mo · 27.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,636
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,517
• − Property taxes: −$1,846
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,651
• − Management: −$1,651
• − Depreciation: −$4,943
• Taxable income: $180
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$43
• After-tax cash flow: $2,873/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hoosic Valley Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3614730
• Math proficiency: 53% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $65,478
• Composite: 47.17/100
• National rank: #2324
• State rank: #304 of 590 in NY

Livability — Stillwater

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #509
• US rank: #8993

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,875

Population outlook (Rensselaer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 162,400 people
• By 2030: 161,746 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 158,095 · -2.7%
• By 2050: 152,966 · -5.8%
• By 2075: 140,767 · -13.3%
• By 2100: 124,727 · -23.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (98%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 98% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 10% Romanian 6% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Rensselaer

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.7% · R 49.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.0pp toward R · 2008: 9.3pp · 2024: 1.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.4 2020: D+5.6 2016: R+2.9 2012: D+11.8 2008: D+9.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.50%
• Current HPI: 300.9995
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+142.7% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $169,900 Global MLS
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $179,900 Global MLS
• 2026-04-17 Listed $189,000 Global MLS
• 2025-12-02 Relisted — Global MLS
• 2025-11-08 Pending — Global MLS
• 2025-11-08 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2025-09-22 Price Changed $189,900 Global MLS
• 2025-09-05 Listed $199,900 Global MLS
• 2023-05-08 Sold (MLS) $80,000 Global MLS
• 2023-03-31 Pending — Global MLS
• 2023-03-07 Price Changed $89,500 Global MLS
• 2023-02-07 Price Changed $99,900 Global MLS
• 2023-01-13 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2023-01-12 Listed $109,900 Global MLS
• 2022-12-31 Price Changed $109,900 Global MLS
• 2022-11-29 Listed $119,000 Global MLS
• 1996-01-30 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,846 · +0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.