2271 Old Route 22 · Kenly, NC 27542

$224,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,656 sqft · SingleFamily public records

Built 1996 0.97 ac lot Est $330k · 32% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.9/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Country living w/ no restrictions! Charming farmhouse situated on a beautiful acre lot! Minutes from Flowers Plantation, Wilson, Smithfield & Goldsboro. 1st floor master w/ updated fixtures in the master bath & Bright & open kitchen/dining area is open to the living room, nice separate laundry, mud room, & large finished bonus w/ rustic wood flooring & walk in storage! Covered back porch w/ side screened porch overlooking amazing backyard! Look no further for your forever home!

Key facts

• 0.97 acre lot
• Built 1996

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $24 ($293/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $180k (20.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $180k (20.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.9% in Kenly — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#183 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Johnston County Public Schools (rural): math 39% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #105 of 178 in NC (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Glendale-Kenly Elementary (math 44% / reading 43%, grade F, #618 of 1,410 statewide, top 44%, 472 students, 68% FRL); North Johnston Middle (math 26% / reading 36%, grade F, #326 of 475 statewide, top 69%, 600 students, 72% FRL); North Johnston High (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #445 of 535 statewide, top 84%, 787 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 67% FRL vs 41% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 89 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,783 units permitted in Johnston County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Johnston County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $63k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 10 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $180,000 (20.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.47%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $329,544
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
145 Bay Valley Rd	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,608 (-3%)	16mo	$319,900	$199	74
145 Bay Valley Rd	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,608 (-3%)	16mo	$319,900	$199	71
2609 Old Route 22	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,780 (+8%)	2mo	$299,900	$168	68
301 S Darden St	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,494 (-10%)	18mo	$219,900	$147	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.97×
• Total profit: $123,974
• Equity at exit: $202,608

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.78×
• Total profit: $363,721
• Equity at exit: $436,931

Cash invested: $62,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27542

• Home prices YoY: 16.6%
• Active inventory: 89
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,800 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,179
• Tax from tax record: −$124 /mo · $1,493/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$378
• Net cashflow: $24

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,769

Max offer price $224,900

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,225
• Closing costs: $6,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
309 S College Ave Kenly, NC	3.0	2.0	1459	$1,800	$1.23	23d	1	0.92mi

Listing history 32 events

1. 2025-12-11
   status Pending
2. 2021-12-31
   historical
3. 2021-08-31
   soldstatus $225,000 Closed 511-char remark

   Show marketing remark (511 chars)

   Country living w/ no restrictions! Charming farmhouse situated on a beautiful acre lot! Minutes from Flowers Plantation, Wilson, Smithfield & Goldsboro. 1st floor master w/ updated fixtures in the master bath & Bright & open kitchen/dining area is open to the living room, nice separate laundry, mud room, & large finished bonus w/ rustic wood flooring & walk in storage! Covered back porch w/ side screened porch overlooking amazing backyard! Look no further for your forever home!

4. 2021-07-31
   historical Contingent 511-char remark

   Show marketing remark (511 chars)

   Country living w/ no restrictions! Charming farmhouse situated on a beautiful acre lot! Minutes from Flowers Plantation, Wilson, Smithfield & Goldsboro. 1st floor master w/ updated fixtures in the master bath & Bright & open kitchen/dining area is open to the living room, nice separate laundry, mud room, & large finished bonus w/ rustic wood flooring & walk in storage! Covered back porch w/ side screened porch overlooking amazing backyard! Look no further for your forever home!

5. 2021-07-31
   historical

   Show marketing remark (511 chars)

   Country living w/ no restrictions! Charming farmhouse situated on a beautiful acre lot! Minutes from Flowers Plantation, Wilson, Smithfield & Goldsboro. 1st floor master w/ updated fixtures in the master bath & Bright & open kitchen/dining area is open to the living room, nice separate laundry, mud room, & large finished bonus w/ rustic wood flooring & walk in storage! Covered back porch w/ side screened porch overlooking amazing backyard! Look no further for your forever home!

6. 2021-07-26
   price $224,900 511-char remark

   Show marketing remark (511 chars)

   Country living w/ no restrictions! Charming farmhouse situated on a beautiful acre lot! Minutes from Flowers Plantation, Wilson, Smithfield & Goldsboro. 1st floor master w/ updated fixtures in the master bath & Bright & open kitchen/dining area is open to the living room, nice separate laundry, mud room, & large finished bonus w/ rustic wood flooring & walk in storage! Covered back porch w/ side screened porch overlooking amazing backyard! Look no further for your forever home!

7. 2021-07-13
   listed $224,900
8. 2021-07-08
   price $229,900 511-char remark

   Show marketing remark (511 chars)

   Country living w/ no restrictions! Charming farmhouse situated on a beautiful acre lot! Minutes from Flowers Plantation, Wilson, Smithfield & Goldsboro. 1st floor master w/ updated fixtures in the master bath & Bright & open kitchen/dining area is open to the living room, nice separate laundry, mud room, & large finished bonus w/ rustic wood flooring & walk in storage! Covered back porch w/ side screened porch overlooking amazing backyard! Look no further for your forever home!

9. 2021-06-29
   listed $235,000 Active 511-char remark

   Show marketing remark (511 chars)

   Country living w/ no restrictions! Charming farmhouse situated on a beautiful acre lot! Minutes from Flowers Plantation, Wilson, Smithfield & Goldsboro. 1st floor master w/ updated fixtures in the master bath & Bright & open kitchen/dining area is open to the living room, nice separate laundry, mud room, & large finished bonus w/ rustic wood flooring & walk in storage! Covered back porch w/ side screened porch overlooking amazing backyard! Look no further for your forever home!

10. 2021-06-08
    historical $235,000 511-char remark

    Show marketing remark (511 chars)

    Country living w/ no restrictions! Charming farmhouse situated on a beautiful acre lot! Minutes from Flowers Plantation, Wilson, Smithfield & Goldsboro. 1st floor master w/ updated fixtures in the master bath & Bright & open kitchen/dining area is open to the living room, nice separate laundry, mud room, & large finished bonus w/ rustic wood flooring & walk in storage! Covered back porch w/ side screened porch overlooking amazing backyard! Look no further for your forever home!

11. 2021-06-06
    listed $224,900
12. 2019-05-28
    soldstatus $162,900
13. 2019-05-28
    soldstatus $162,900
14. 2019-05-28
    soldstatus $162,900 Closed
15. 2019-05-28
    soldstatus $163,000
16. 2019-04-27
    historical Contingent
17. 2019-04-25
    listed $162,900
18. 2019-04-25
    listed $162,900
19. 2019-04-17
    listed $162,900 Active
20. 2017-10-27
    historical
21. 2017-10-26
    historical
22. 2017-10-25
    price $139,900
23. 2017-09-30
    price $149,900
24. 2017-09-18
    status Active
25. 2017-09-15
    historical
26. 2017-08-12
    price $154,900
27. 2017-08-07
    listed $139,900
28. 2017-07-29
    listed $159,900 Active
29. 2017-07-24
    historical
30. 2017-07-14
    price $165,000
31. 2017-06-13
    price $167,000
32. 2017-06-02
    listed $169,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,493 · $124/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,844 · $154/mo
• Expected delta: +$351/yr (+$29/mo · 23.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 7/10 Severe 78% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,598
• − Property taxes: −$1,493
• − Insurance: −$1,124
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,728
• − Management: −$1,728
• − Depreciation: −$6,543
• Taxable loss: −$3,614
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$867
• After-tax cash flow: $1,161/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Johnston County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3702370
• Math proficiency: 39% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $50,912
• Composite: 34.99/100
• National rank: #5052
• State rank: #105 of 178 in NC

Livability — Kenly

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #183
• US rank: #9261

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,441

Population outlook (Johnston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 222,440 people
• By 2030: 240,227 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 274,616 · +23.5%
• By 2050: 304,915 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 369,507 · +66.1%
• By 2100: 406,280 · +82.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 13% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 3% Serbian 1% Scottish 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 9%

Political lean MEDSL · Johnston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.5) · D 38.7% · R 60.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.2pp toward D · 2008: -23.7pp · 2024: -21.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.5 2020: R+24.3 2016: R+30.7 2012: R+27.8 2008: R+23.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 40.03%
• Current HPI: 280.6408
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+32.4% since first listed

32 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-11 Pending — Hive MLS
• 2021-12-31 Listing Removed — Hive MLS
• 2021-08-31 Sold (MLS) $225,000 TMLS
• 2021-07-31 Contingent — TMLS
• 2021-07-31 Listing Removed — Hive MLS
• 2021-07-26 Price Changed $224,900 TMLS
• 2021-07-13 Listed $224,900 Hive MLS
• 2021-07-08 Price Changed $229,900 TMLS
• 2021-06-29 Listed $235,000 TMLS
• 2021-06-08 Coming Soon $235,000 TMLS
• 2021-06-06 Listed $224,900 Hive MLS
• 2019-05-28 Sold (Public Records) $163,000 Public Records
• 2019-05-28 Sold (MLS) $162,900 TMLS
• 2019-05-28 Sold (MLS) $162,900 Hive MLS
• 2019-05-28 Sold (MLS) $162,900 Hive MLS
• 2019-04-27 Contingent — TMLS
• 2019-04-25 Listed $162,900 Hive MLS
• 2019-04-25 Listed $162,900 Hive MLS
• 2019-04-17 Listed $162,900 TMLS
• 2017-10-27 Listing Removed — TMLS
• 2017-10-26 Listing Removed — Hive MLS
• 2017-10-25 Price Changed $139,900 TMLS
• 2017-09-30 Price Changed $149,900 TMLS
• 2017-09-18 Relisted — TMLS
• 2017-09-15 Listing Removed — TMLS
• 2017-08-12 Price Changed $154,900 TMLS
• 2017-08-07 Listed $139,900 Hive MLS
• 2017-07-29 Listed $159,900 TMLS
• 2017-07-24 Listing Removed — TMLS
• 2017-07-14 Price Changed $165,000 TMLS
• 2017-06-13 Price Changed $167,000 TMLS
• 2017-06-02 Listed $169,900 TMLS

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,493 · +28.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.