Mill Run Plan · North Fort Myers, FL 33982

$383,990

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,203 sqft · SingleFamily · 431 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0

Key facts

• Airy kitchen
• Gathering room
• Loft

Tags

• AIRY KITCHEN
• GATHERING ROOM
• GUEST SUITE
• IMPRESSIVE STAIRCASE
• OWNER'S SUITE
• LOFT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address listed as Mill Run Plan, Babcock Ranch, FL 33982; Listing status: Active
• Financial info: List price $383,990
• HOA & community: Located in Babcock Ranch

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family plan home (Mill Run)
• Construction: Living area approximately 2,203; New construction plan
• Exterior features: Located in Babcock Ranch community; Plan home (Mill Run plan)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open plan living areas

🏗️ New construction. The $383,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $597,013.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $384k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-562 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $384k).
• Recommended offer: $338k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.6% in North Fort Myers — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#269 in FL, #4,409 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Charlotte (suburban): math 54% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #22 of 73 in FL (top 30%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.1%/yr); 1037 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,585 units permitted in Charlotte County in 2024 (703 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,511/mo this rent would consume 75% of the median local household income ($72k/yr) (locally 43% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $18k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Charlotte County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 431 days — a 12% lower offer ($338k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $337,911 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 431 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.03%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $597,013
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
42223 Saddleback Trl	0.37mi	4/2.0	2,301 (+4%)	5mo	$610,000	$265	67
16952 Bridle Trl	0.23mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,245 (+2%)	18mo	$645,000	$287	66
16572 Kingwood Ln #3622	0.37mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,110 (-4%)	9mo	$305,000	$145	60
42274 Waterfront Way	0.55mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,266 (+3%)	11mo	$680,000	$300	54
42194 Lake Timber Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,980 (-10%)	16mo	$536,215	$271	40
17709 Wayside Bnd	0.54mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,448 (+11%)	15mo	$585,000	$239	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.13% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-127,274
• Equity at exit: $89,017

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-134,853
• Equity at exit: $51,619

Cash invested: $167,164 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33982

• Home prices YoY: -1.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.1%
• Active inventory: 1037
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,511 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,131
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$746 /mo · $8,955/yr
• Insurance: −$249
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$947
• Net cashflow: $-562

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,223

Max offer price $515,707

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-149	-5% $-356	+0% $-562	+5% $-768	+10% $-974
Rent	-10% $-918	-5% $-740	+0% $-562	+5% $-384	+10% $-205
Rate	-1.0pp $-261	-0.5pp $-410	base $-562	+0.5pp $-717	+1.0pp $-874

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $149,253
• Closing costs: $17,910
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16572 Kingwood Ln #3611 Punta Gorda, FL	3.0	2.0	1749	$4,500	$2.57	22d	1	0.35mi
43038 Parkside Ct Punta Gorda, FL	3.0	2.0	1677	$2,500	$1.49	22d	1	0.37mi
17174 Curry Preserve Dr Punta Gorda, FL	3.0	1.0–2.0	1036	$2,354	$2.27	22d	58	0.56mi
42098 Journey Dr Punta Gorda, FL	3.0	2.0	2000	$9,000	$4.50	22d	1	0.74mi
43153 Wild Indigo Rd Punta Gorda, FL	3.0–5.0	2.0–2.5	1919	$2,826	$1.47	22d	25	0.81mi
16397 Preservation Blvd Punta Gorda, FL	4.0	3.5	2353	$2,800	$1.19	22d	1	0.93mi
17339 Palmetto Pass Ln Punta Gorda, FL	3.0	3.0	2464	$5,000	$2.03	22d	1	0.97mi
43693 Tree Top Trl Punta Gorda, FL	3.0	3.0	1850	$11,000	$5.95	22d	1	0.98mi
43041 Greenway Blvd Punta Gorda, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1569	$7,500	$4.78	22d	3	1.08mi
17604 Fallen Branch Way Punta Gorda, FL	4.0	3.0	2027	$2,700	$1.33	22d	1	1.08mi
42380 Cascade Dr Punta Gorda, FL	3.0	2.0	1662	$2,600	$1.56	22d	1	1.15mi
15919 Leaning Pine Ln Punta Gorda, FL	3.0	3.0	2247	$10,000	$4.45	22d	1	1.15mi
42425 Cascade Dr Punta Gorda, FL	3.0	2.0	1850	$3,000	$1.62	22d	1	1.19mi
15808 Leaning Pine Ln Punta Gorda, FL	3.0	3.0	1874	$3,950	$2.11	22d	1	1.27mi
15522 Olympic Ct Punta Gorda, FL	3.0	3.0	2672	$3,600	$1.35	22d	1	1.27mi
15635 Appalachian Dr Punta Gorda, FL	3.0	3.0	2707	$3,500	$1.29	14d	1	1.27mi
15943 Grassland Ln #3912 Punta Gorda, FL	3.0	2.0	1741	$8,800	$5.05	22d	1	1.37mi
15919 Grassland Ln #4211 Punta Gorda, FL	3.0	2.0	1741	$8,800	$5.05	22d	1	1.40mi
15903 Grassland Ln #4411 Punta Gorda, FL	3.0	2.0	1741	$7,500	$4.31	22d	1	1.41mi
16922 Sage Ter Punta Gorda, FL	4.0	2.0	1580	$3,500	$2.22	22d	1	1.41mi
43270 Boardwalk Loop Punta Gorda, FL	3.0	3.0	2247	$10,000	$4.45	22d	1	1.48mi
15907 Sugar Hill Dr Unit 15907 Punta Gorda, FL	3.0	3.0	2247	$9,500	$4.23	22d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $383,990 Active 431 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $383,990 Active 430 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $383,990 Active 429 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $383,990 Active 428 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $383,990 Active 426 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $383,990 Active 425 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $383,990 Active 423 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $383,990 Active 422 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $383,990 Active 421 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $383,990 Active 417 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $383,990 Active 415 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $383,990 Active 414 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $383,990 Active 413 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $383,990 Active 412 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $54,136
• − Mortgage interest: −$33,442
• − Property taxes: −$8,955
• − Insurance: −$2,985
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,331
• − Management: −$4,331
• − Depreciation: −$17,368
• Taxable loss: −$17,276
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,146
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,596/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Charlotte
• NCES district ID: 1200240
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,864
• Composite: 45.62/100
• National rank: #2586
• State rank: #22 of 73 in FL

Livability — North Fort Myers

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #269
• US rank: #4409

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Charlotte County · 196,994 people
• City population: 57,035
• Metro: Punta Gorda, FL
• Population (ZIP): 13,006
• Household income: $72,443
• Rent vs Own: 11.2% rent · 88.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 43.0

Population outlook (Charlotte County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 198,646 people
• By 2030: 210,507 · +6.0%
• By 2040: 230,857 · +16.2%
• By 2050: 247,148 · +24.4%
• By 2075: 281,777 · +41.8%
• By 2100: 293,609 · +47.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 7% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Iranian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% German/W. Germanic 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Charlotte

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+34.0) · D 32.7% · R 66.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.7pp toward R · 2008: -7.2pp · 2024: -34.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+34.0 2020: R+26.6 2016: R+27.8 2012: R+14.3 2008: R+7.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -5.25%
• Current HPI: 448.5895
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.13%
• Metro: Punta Gorda, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B