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7157 Inlet Isles Ct 🏗️ New Construction
F Composite 31.39
Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

  • ARV discount +7.5/15.0
  • Schools +7.1/10.0
  • Cash flow +6.0/30.0
  • Condition / age +5.0/5.0
  • Livability +2.5/5.0
  • 1% rule +1.8/10.0
  • Rent growth +1.2/5.0
  • DSCR +0.3/10.0
  • Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$697,204

7157 Inlet Isles Ct · Lakewood Ranch, FL 34211
4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,246 sqft · SingleFamily · 113 Days on market
Built 2026 Excellent condition 6,760 sqft lot 2-car garage $350/mo HOA · 6% of rent ↓ 6% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

Pool included! Step inside this beautifully designed single-story home, offering 2,246 square feet of thoughtfully crafted living space. The open-concept layout centers around a chef-inspired kitchen, complete with quartz countertops, a smooth cooktop with vent hood, and a full suite of stainless steel appliances-including a French door refrigerator and built-in wall oven. Entertain with ease in the expansive Great Room or extend gatherings to the covered lanai and screened patio. The owner's suite is tucked away for privacy and features dual walk-in closets, a spa-like bath with designer fixtures, and a walk-in shower with elegant tile details. Two additional bedrooms and a versatile den provide flexible options for guests or a home office. Energy-efficient touches like LED recessed lighting, a Ring Video Doorbell Pro, and a Honeywell WiFi thermostat offer comfort and peace of mind. The two-car garage boasts a hurricane-rated door, keyless entry pad, and quality concrete block construction. Homes with this level of design and modern convenience are in high demand-don't miss your chance to make it yours!

Key facts

  • Gated community
  • 6,760 sq ft lot
  • 2 garage spots

Tags

GATED COMMUNITYCENTRAL OPEN CONCEPT DESIGNEXPANSIVE COVERED LANAITWO BEDROOMS AND A DEN

Neighborhood map

Property Rental comp Retail Costco Walmart Transit Schools Stadiums Fortune 500 · Circle radius: 6.0 mi
Loading POIs…
🏗️ New construction. The $697,204 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $831,526.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

  • This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $697k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

  • At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-19k/yr) — negative.
  • To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $600k (14.0% below list).
  • To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $569k (18.4% below list).
  • Recommended offer: $569k (18.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
  • Cap rate 4.0% vs local median 2.9% in Lakewood Ranch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

  • Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
  • Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
  • Zoned schools: Robert Willis Elementary School (math 83% / reading 79%, grade A+, #95 of 2,144 statewide, top 5%, 765 students, 22% FRL); R. Dan Nolan Middle School (math 79% / reading 72%, grade A, #38 of 571 statewide, top 7%, 760 students, 28% FRL); Lakewood Ranch High School (math 47% / reading 63%, grade C, #135 of 667 statewide, top 20%, 2,435 students, 22% FRL) — zoned schools average 24% FRL vs 51% district-wide (27 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
  • Zoned-school proficiency averages 70% at this address vs 52% district-wide (+18 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Manatee average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
  • Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.2%/yr); 1554 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 115d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
  • At $5,690/mo this rent would consume 57% of the median local household income ($120k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

  • Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $25k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
  • Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

  • It's been on market 113 days — a 9% lower offer ($634k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
  • 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

  • Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Recommended offer $569,001 (18.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

  1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
  2. It's been on market 113 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
  3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
  4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
  5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
  6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
  7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
  8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
  9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule
0.68%
Cap rate
3.98%
Cash-on-cash
-8.25%
DSCR
0.63
GRM
12.2

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp)
$831,526
List price
$697,204
Delta
-16.15%
Verdict
UNDERPRICED
Comps
20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
Address Dist Beds/Ba Sqft Sold Price $/sf Match
17610 Polo Trl 0.50mi 4/2.0 2,268 (+1%) 6mo $693,900 $306 70
17932 Polo Trl 0.63mi 4/2.0 2,268 (+1%) 1mo $750,000 $331 68
17850 Polo Trl 0.55mi 4/2.0 2,257 (+0%) 7mo $699,000 $310 68
7412 Summerland Cv 0.51mi 3/2.0 (-1) 2,084 (-7%) 0mo $595,000 $286 59
18025 Harwich Pl 0.48mi 3/3.0 (-1) 2,128 (-5%) 1mo $779,000 $366 59
17418 Blue Ridge Pl 0.68mi 3/3.0 (-1) 2,198 (-2%) 3mo $620,000 $282 53
7710 Summerland Cv 0.59mi 3/2.0 (-1) 2,084 (-7%) 4mo $755,000 $362 53
18025 Northwood Pl 0.36mi 3/3.0 (-1) 2,518 (+12%) 3mo $835,000 $332 51
17802 Eastbrook Ter 0.33mi 3/3.0 (-1) 2,508 (+12%) 6mo $850,000 $339 51
17614 Polo Trl 0.49mi 3/3.0 (-1) 2,455 (+9%) 5mo $775,000 $316 48
17030 Loudon Pl 0.73mi 3/2.0 (-1) 2,112 (-6%) 3mo $599,000 $284 48
17619 Blue Ridge Pl 0.60mi 4/3.0 2,546 (+13%) 5mo $725,000 $285 41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold
IRR
-34.4%
Equity multiple
-0.09×
Total profit
$-253,110
Equity at exit
$123,983
10-year hold
IRR
-68.7%
Equity multiple
-0.78×
Total profit
$-414,956
Equity at exit
$71,895

Cash invested: $232,827 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE)
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Florida
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
County
— inherits STATE
City
— inherits STATE
3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.
Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now
15 active · 14 under contract
Months of supply
5.0 mo (20%/mo absorbed)
Median asking
$757,204 ($317/sqft)
Median days on market
53 d
This list price
33% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking
+17.0% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34211

Home prices YoY
-27.5%
Rents YoY
-5.2%
Active inventory
1554
Price-to-rent
10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent
$5,690 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I)
$4,361
Tax est. 1.5%
$1,039 /mo · $12,473/yr
Insurance
$346
HOA
$350
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
$1,195
Net cashflow
$-1,601

Break-even live

Break-even rent $7,717
Max offer price $599,804
Occupancy floor

Sensitivity live

Price -10% $-1,027 -5% $-1,314 +0% $-1,601 +5% $-1,889 +10% $-2,176
Rent -10% $-2,051 -5% $-1,826 +0% $-1,601 +5% $-1,377 +10% $-1,152
Rate -1.0pp $-1,183 -0.5pp $-1,390 base $-1,601 +0.5pp $-1,817 +1.0pp $-2,036

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment
$207,882
Closing costs
$24,946
Reserves months
Total cash needed

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 24 comps

AddressBedsBaths SqftRent$/sqft DOM Units Dist
18114 Waterville Pl Bradenton, FL 3.0 2.0 2054 $10,000 $4.87 119d 1 0.25mi
17850 Polo Trl Bradenton, FL 4.0 2.0 2257 $5,000 $2.22 0d 1 0.54mi
6647 Clairborne Ln Bradenton, FL 3.0 3.0 1836 $3,595 $1.96 119d 1 0.69mi
7675 Summerland Cv Bradenton, FL 3.0 2.0 2084 $5,000 $2.40 119d 1 0.70mi
17335 Blue Ridge Pl Bradenton, FL 3.0 3.0 2201 $3,950 $1.79 119d 1 0.76mi
17335 Blue Ridge Pl Bradenton, FL 3.0 3.0 2201 $3,950 $1.79 0d 1 0.76mi
18114 Gawthrop Dr Bradenton, FL 2.0–3.0 2.0 1310 $7,000 $5.34 82d 4 1.09mi
18114 Gawthrop Dr Bradenton, FL 2.0–3.0 2.0 1300 $7,000 $5.38 119d 5 1.09mi
18028 Gawthrop Dr Bradenton, FL 2.0–3.0 2.0 1310 $6,000 $4.58 93d 7 1.10mi
18028 Gawthrop Dr Bradenton, FL 2.0–3.0 2.0 1310 $6,000 $4.58 2d 5 1.10mi
17006 Blue Ridge Pl Bradenton, FL 4.0 3.0 2529 $3,495 $1.38 119d 1 1.10mi
7857 Redonda Loop Bradenton, FL 3.0 2.5 2292 $4,500 $1.96 9d 1 1.11mi
17810 Gawthrop Dr Bradenton, FL 2.0–3.0 2.0 1453 $6,000 $4.13 9d 3 1.11mi
17810 Gawthrop Dr Bradenton, FL 2.0–3.0 2.0 1453 $4,000 $2.75 114d 2 1.11mi
17810 Gawthrop Dr Bradenton, FL 3.0 2.0 1786 $5,000 $2.80 6d 2 1.11mi
18117 Gawthrop Dr #104 Bradenton, FL 3.0 2.0 1786 $4,000 $2.24 119d 1 1.15mi
18017 Gawthrop Dr #104 Bradenton, FL 3.0 2.0 1786 $6,000 $3.36 119d 1 1.16mi
17815 Gawthrop Dr #101 Bradenton, FL 3.0 2.0 1786 $7,500 $4.20 0d 1 1.18mi
17704 Gawthrop Dr Unit 1545826P Bradenton, FL 3.0 2.0 1431 $3,163 $2.21 110d 1 1.18mi
7342 Divot Loop Bradenton, FL 3.0 2.0 1748 $2,800 $1.60 99d 1 1.22mi
17021 Polo Trl Bradenton, FL 3.0 3.0 2650 $5,900 $2.23 119d 1 1.23mi
7564 Divot Loop Bradenton, FL 3.0 2.0 1748 $7,250 $4.15 9d 1 1.37mi
6026 Brandon Run Bradenton, FL 3.0 2.0 2246 $12,000 $5.34 119d 1 1.38mi
5947 Brandon Run Bradenton, FL 3.0 2.0 2200 $13,000 $5.91 119d 1 1.40mi

Property features AI

Finance

Other
Total annual fees approx. $4,204
Financial info
CDD applicableLease restrictions apply
HOA & community
HOA managed by ICON ManagementMonthly HOA approximately $350.33 (quarterly fee $1,051)Association approval requiredAssociation fee includes internet, grounds maintenance, and managementCommunity features: community mailbox, deed restrictions, sidewalks, street lights

Exterior

Parking
Deeded drivewayAttached 2-car garage
Security
Gated community
Utilities
Public waterPublic sewerElectricity available and connectedCable availableBB/HS internet availableUnderground utilitiesSprinkler meter and recycled sprinkler
Home design
Single family residenceOne storyAttached propertyNorthwest-facingUnder construction (projected completion Sept 13, 2026)
Construction
Concrete constructionTile roofSlab foundationNew construction by Lennar Homes (model: Isabella)
Exterior features
Covered rear screened porchPatio/porch with screen enclosureExterior lightingSidewalksLandscaped yardIrrigation (reclaimed water)Paved driveway and roads

Interior

Kitchen
DishwasherDisposalExhaust fanFreezerMicrowaveRangeRefrigerator
Bedrooms
4 bedrooms
Flooring
Tile flooring
Bathrooms
2 full bathrooms
Heating & cooling
Central heating (electric)Central air conditioning
Interior features
Eat-in kitchenKitchen/family room comboLiving room/dining room comboOpen floorplanSplit bedroom layoutThermostatWalk-in closetsWindow treatmentsStorm windows
Laundry & utility
Inside laundry roomWasherDryerInside utility

HOA detail $350/mo · $4,200/yr

Likely covers
internetpool

Listing history 50 events

  1. 2026-09-22
    days on market $697,204 Active 113 DOM
  2. 2026-09-21
    days on market $697,204 Active 112 DOM
  3. 2026-09-20
    days on market $697,204 Active 111 DOM
  4. 2026-09-19
    days on market $697,204 Active 110 DOM
  5. 2026-09-18
    days on market $697,204 Active 109 DOM
  6. 2026-09-17
    days on market $697,204 Active 108 DOM
  7. 2026-09-16
    days on market $697,204 Active 107 DOM
  8. 2026-09-15
    days on market $697,204 Active 106 DOM
  9. 2026-09-14
    days on market $697,204 Active 105 DOM
  10. 2026-09-13
    days on market $697,204 Active 104 DOM
  11. 2026-09-12
    days on market $697,204 Active 103 DOM
  12. 2026-09-11
    days on market $697,204 Active 102 DOM
  13. 2026-09-05
    days on market $697,204 Active 96 DOM
  14. 2026-09-04
    days on market $697,204 Active 95 DOM
  15. 2026-09-03
    days on market $697,204 Active 94 DOM
  16. 2026-08-31
    days on market $697,204 Active 91 DOM
  17. 2026-08-30
    days on market $697,204 Active 90 DOM
  18. 2026-08-29
    days on market $697,204 Active 89 DOM
  19. 2026-08-28
    days on market $697,204 Active 88 DOM
  20. 2026-08-27
    days on market $697,204 Active 87 DOM
  21. 2026-08-26
    days on market $697,204 Active 86 DOM
  22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $697,204 Active 85 DOM
  23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $697,204 Active 84 DOM
  24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $697,204 Active 83 DOM
  25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $697,204 Active 82 DOM
  26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $697,204 Active 81 DOM
  27. 2026-08-20
    days on market $697,204 Active 80 DOM
  28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $697,204 Active 79 DOM
  29. 2026-08-18
    days on market $697,204 Active 78 DOM
  30. 2026-08-17
    days on market $697,204 Active 77 DOM
  31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $697,204 Active 76 DOM
  32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $697,204 Active 75 DOM
  33. 2026-08-14
    days on market $697,204 Active 74 DOM
  34. 2026-08-13
    days on market $697,204 Active 73 DOM
  35. 2026-08-12
    days on market $697,204 Active 72 DOM
  36. 2026-08-11
    days on market $697,204 Active 71 DOM
  37. 2026-08-10
    days on market $697,204 Active 70 DOM
  38. 2026-08-09
    days on market $697,204 Active 69 DOM
  39. 2026-08-08
    days on market $697,204 Active 68 DOM
  40. 2026-08-07
    days on market $697,204 Active 67 DOM
  41. 2026-08-06
    days on market $697,204 Active 66 DOM
  42. 2026-08-05
    days on market $697,204 Active 65 DOM
  43. 2026-08-04
    days on market $697,204 Active 64 DOM
  44. 2026-08-03
    days on market $697,204 Active 63 DOM
  45. 2026-07-31
    days on market $697,204 Active 60 DOM
  46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $697,204 Active 58 DOM
  47. 2026-07-28
    days on market $697,204 Active 57 DOM
  48. 2026-07-26
    days on market $697,204 Active 55 DOM
  49. 2026-07-24
    days on market $697,204 Active 53 DOM
  50. 2026-07-23
    days on market $697,204 Active 52 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

  • 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
  • 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
  • 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
  • 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
  • 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

Loading sold comps map…

Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income
$68,280
− Mortgage interest
−$46,578
− Property taxes
−$12,473
− Insurance
−$4,158
− Repairs & maintenance
−$5,462
− Management
−$5,462
− HOA
−$4,200
− Depreciation
−$24,190
Taxable loss
−$34,243
combined federal + state — saved on this device
Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
+$8,218
After-tax cash flow
$-10,998/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This brand new single-family home in Lakewood Ranch is move-in ready with a modern design and top-notch features. It's an excellent investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

  • Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances the home's curb appeal and can attract more buyers
  • Both Add smart home features — Improves convenience and can increase the home's value
  • Both Install smart thermostat — Saves energy and can increase the home's value
B Composite school gradezoned avg 70/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Robert Willis Elementary School A+ FL #95/2,144 Nat'l #1,082/41,679 Middle R. Dan Nolan Middle School A FL #38/571 Nat'l #472/14,009 High Lakewood Ranch High School C FL #135/667 Nat'l #4,413/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District
Manatee
NCES district ID
1201230
Math proficiency
54% ▼ -6.00%
Reading proficiency
50% ▼ -2.00%
Median HH income
$49,607
Composite
44.43/100
National rank
#2806
State rank
#26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakewood Ranch

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

Census place
Lakewood Ranch, FL
County
Manatee County · 447,342 people
City population
52,177
Metro
North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
Population (ZIP)
24,980
Household income
$119,911
Rent vs Own
21.7% rent · 78.3% own
Severe rent burden
10% of renters

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025)
447,342 people
By 2030
488,911 · +9.3%
By 2040
567,934 · +27.0%
By 2050
637,995 · +42.6%
By 2075
781,970 · +74.8%
By 2100
848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character
Predominantly White (81%)
Race & ethnicity
White 81% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 10% Asian 3% Black 2% Native American 2%
Hispanic origin (detail)
Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 3%
Common ancestry
Lithuanian 5% Romanian 3% Scotch-Irish 2%
Foreign-born
16% · Canada, Jamaica, China
Languages at home
81% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

2024 margin
Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
2008→2024 swing
-16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
All cycles
2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

Civics

Price history

-6.4% since first listed
4 events — show timeline
  • 2026-06-01 Listed $697,204 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2026-05-05 Price Changed $697,204 Zillow
  • 2026-04-18 Price Changed $677,204 Zillow
  • 2026-04-17 Listed $745,204 Zillow

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

Loading sold comps…