127 County Road 77 · Riceville, TN 37370

$136,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Manufactured public records · 40 Days on market

Built 1989

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.8/30.0
• DSCR +8.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

3 bedroom 2 bath home With fireplace on permanent foundation. 12x28 cover Deck . Need some TLC. Has stove, HVAC is in good working order. Wheelchair ramp. 10x20 workshop. Partial fenced in yard. Country setting, but still close to Shopping, restaurants and hospitals. On Level a lot. Call Beth for details

Key facts

• Country setting
• Partial fenced yard
• Workshop

Tags

• FIREPLACE
• COVER DECK
• WORKSHOP
• PARTIAL FENCED YARD
• COUNTRY SETTING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $136k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $289 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $136k).
• Recommended offer: $132k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 1.9% in Riceville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#217 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime F.
• Mcminn County (rural): math 24% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #77 of 139 in TN (top 55%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 77 active listings in the ZIP; 45 units permitted in McMinn County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $940 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $82k; list at $136k implies a 66% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $131,920 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.10%
• DSCR: 1.40
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.90×
• Total profit: $-3,624
• Equity at exit: $20,278

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.54×
• Total profit: $20,621
• Equity at exit: $11,759

Cash invested: $38,080 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37370

• Home prices YoY: -10.3%
• Active inventory: 77
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,555 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$713
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$170 /mo · $2,040/yr
• Insurance: −$57
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$327
• Net cashflow: $289

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,190

Max offer price $136,000

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $383	-5% $336	+0% $289	+5% $242	+10% $195
Rent	-10% $166	-5% $227	+0% $289	+5% $350	+10% $412
Rate	-1.0pp $357	-0.5pp $323	base $289	+0.5pp $254	+1.0pp $218

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,000
• Closing costs: $4,080
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $136,000 Active 40 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $136,000 Active 38 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $136,000 Active 37 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $136,000 Active 36 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $136,000 Active 35 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $136,000 Active 34 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $136,000 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $136,000 Active 31 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $136,000 Active 28 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $136,000 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $136,000 Active 26 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $136,000 Active 25 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $136,000 Active 22 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $136,000 Active 21 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $136,000 Active 20 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $136,000 Active 19 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $136,000 Active 18 DOM
18. 2026-05-12
    listed $136,000 Active 305-char remark
19. 2026-03-12
    soldstatus $82,000
20. 2026-02-24
    historical
21. 2025-12-29
    historical Pending - Continue to Show
22. 2025-12-29
    historical
23. 2025-12-29
    listed $89,900
24. 2025-12-29
    listed $89,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,663
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,618
• − Property taxes: −$2,040
• − Insurance: −$680
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,493
• − Management: −$1,493
• − Depreciation: −$3,956
• Taxable income: $1,382
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$332
• After-tax cash flow: $3,133/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mcminn County
• NCES district ID: 4702820
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $41,622
• Composite: 22.49/100
• National rank: #8099
• State rank: #77 of 139 in TN

Livability — Riceville

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #217
• US rank: #16490

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Riceville, TN
• Population (ZIP): 5,244

Population outlook (McMinn County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 53,766 people
• By 2030: 54,098 · +0.6%
• By 2040: 54,450 · +1.3%
• By 2050: 54,202 · +0.8%
• By 2075: 55,241 · +2.7%
• By 2100: 56,399 · +4.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · McMinn

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+64.2) · D 17.5% · R 81.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.3pp toward R · 2008: -41.9pp · 2024: -64.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+64.2 2020: R+60.6 2016: R+59.7 2012: R+46.9 2008: R+41.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -29.19%
• Current HPI: 253.5229
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+51.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $136,000 FSBO.com
• 2026-03-12 Sold (Public Records) $82,000 Public Records
• 2026-02-24 Listing Removed — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-29 Contingent — Knoxville MLS
• 2025-12-29 Listing Removed — Knoxville MLS
• 2025-12-29 Listed $89,900 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-29 Listed $89,900 Knoxville MLS

Property tax history

+0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $152 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.