307 E Walnut Ave · Winnie, TX 77665

$149,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,676 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 46 Days on market

Built 1952 0.29 ac lot $56/sqft · 47% below area Est $284k · 47% under ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

What a terrific opportunity for a first time buyer or an investor! This 2676sf home features 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, generous kitchen, formal living room, formal dining room, large breakfast room with additional space for an office, massive utility room, and a huge den! Owner states that there is hardwood floors under the carpet! The roof is new (May 2025) and windstorm certified! Before you ask, yes it does need updating and that is reflected in the price! At $59 per SF this home is an amazing deal! Located in the heart of Winnie in the East Chambers School District on a oversized 0.29 Acre lot! Nice storage building in the backyard for all your outdoor toys! Current termite treatment! The possibilities for this home are endless and it's ready for the new owner to put their personal stamp on it!

Key facts

• Windstorm certified
• Oversized lot
• New roof

Tags

• HARDWOOD FLOORS UNDER CARPET
• NEW ROOF
• WINDSTORM CERTIFIED
• OVERSIZED LOT
• STORAGE BUILDING IN BACKYARD
• CURRENT TERMITE TREATMENT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lease not considered

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport; Carport for 2 vehicles
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story (all main rooms listed on first floor); Entry on first floor
• Construction: Built in 1952; Asbestos construction material; Composition roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor; Additional bedrooms on first floor
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Tub with shower
• Laundry & utility: Electric dryer hookup; Utility room on first floor

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $202 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $145k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#527 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• East Chambers ISD (town): math 51% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #199 of 826 in TX (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: East Chambers El (math 60% / reading 47%, grade C, #686 of 4,322 statewide, top 16%, 336 students, 64% FRL); East Chambers J H (math 42% / reading 46%, grade D, #512 of 1,662 statewide, top 32%, 357 students, 61% FRL); East Chambers H S (math 52% / reading 52%, grade D+, #447 of 1,632 statewide, top 29%, 451 students, 59% FRL).
• Market conditions: 70 active listings in the ZIP; 629 units permitted in Chambers County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chambers County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,403 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.78%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $284,226
• List price: $149,900
• Delta: -47.26%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 14 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1438 Park St	0.53mi	3/2.5	2,730 (+2%)	7mo	$299,000	$110	64
317 E Elm Ave E	0.08mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,410 (-10%)	10mo	$399,000	$166	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-11,396
• Equity at exit: $22,351

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.16×
• Total profit: $6,723
• Equity at exit: $12,961

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77665

• Home prices YoY: -11.1%
• Active inventory: 70
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,551 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$174 /mo · $2,092/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$326
• Net cashflow: $202

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,295

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,900 Active 46 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,900 Active 45 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,900 Active 44 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,900 Active 43 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,900 Active 41 DOM

   Show marketing remark (804 chars)

   What a terrific opportunity for a first time buyer or an investor! This 2676sf home features 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, generous kitchen, formal living room, formal dining room, large breakfast room with additional space for an office, massive utility room, and a huge den! Owner states that there is hardwood floors under the carpet! The roof is new (May 2025) and windstorm certified! Before you ask, yes it does need updating and that is reflected in the price! At $59 per SF this home is an amazing deal! Located in the heart of Winnie in the East Chambers School District on a oversized 0.29 Acre lot! Nice storage building in the backyard for all your outdoor toys! Current termite treatment! The possibilities for this home are endless and it's ready for the new owner to put their personal stamp on it!

6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $149,900 Active 40 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,900 Active 37 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,900 Active 36 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,900 Active 35 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,900 Active 31 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,900 Active 30 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,900 Active 29 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,900 Active 28 DOM
14. 2026-05-03
    listed $149,900 Active 804-char remark
15. 2026-04-27
    price $149,900 804-char remark

    Show marketing remark (804 chars)

    What a terrific opportunity for a first time buyer or an investor! This 2676sf home features 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, generous kitchen, formal living room, formal dining room, large breakfast room with additional space for an office, massive utility room, and a huge den! Owner states that there is hardwood floors under the carpet! The roof is new (May 2025) and windstorm certified! Before you ask, yes it does need updating and that is reflected in the price! At $59 per SF this home is an amazing deal! Located in the heart of Winnie in the East Chambers School District on a oversized 0.29 Acre lot! Nice storage building in the backyard for all your outdoor toys! Current termite treatment! The possibilities for this home are endless and it's ready for the new owner to put their personal stamp on it!

16. 2026-04-02
    listed $159,000 Active 804-char remark

    Show marketing remark (804 chars)

    What a terrific opportunity for a first time buyer or an investor! This 2676sf home features 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, generous kitchen, formal living room, formal dining room, large breakfast room with additional space for an office, massive utility room, and a huge den! Owner states that there is hardwood floors under the carpet! The roof is new (May 2025) and windstorm certified! Before you ask, yes it does need updating and that is reflected in the price! At $59 per SF this home is an amazing deal! Located in the heart of Winnie in the East Chambers School District on a oversized 0.29 Acre lot! Nice storage building in the backyard for all your outdoor toys! Current termite treatment! The possibilities for this home are endless and it's ready for the new owner to put their personal stamp on it!

17. 2000-07-10
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,092 · $174/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,743 · $229/mo
• Expected delta: +$651/yr (+$54/mo · 31.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 74% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,609
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$2,092
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,489
• − Management: −$1,489
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable income: $33
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$8
• After-tax cash flow: $2,419/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Chambers ISD
• NCES district ID: 4817880
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $47,131
• Composite: 41.71/100
• National rank: #3411
• State rank: #199 of 826 in TX

Livability — Winnie

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #527
• US rank: #10331

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Winnie, TX
• Population (ZIP): 7,751

Population outlook (Chambers County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,946 people
• By 2030: 51,094 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 59,578 · +26.9%
• By 2050: 68,318 · +45.5%
• By 2075: 90,485 · +92.7%
• By 2100: 104,885 · +123.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 27% Two or more races 7% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 9% Slovak 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 24% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chambers

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.6) · D 16.8% · R 82.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.4pp toward R · 2008: -51.2pp · 2024: -65.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.6 2020: R+61.7 2016: R+62.1 2012: R+61.1 2008: R+51.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -23.27%
• Current HPI: 187.3594
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-12.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-13 Price Changed $139,900 BBOR
• 2026-05-03 Listed $149,900 HARMLS
• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $149,900 BBOR
• 2026-04-02 Listed $159,000 BBOR
• 2000-07-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+0.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,092 · +10.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.