2902 Julie Ann Dr · Pearland, TX 77584

$275,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,837 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 38 Days on market

Built 1996 6,799 sqft lot Est $323k · 15% under $11/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.2/15.0
• Cash flow +11.8/30.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The search is over-well cared for home with laminate wood floors, stainless appliances, a LOW tax rate and roof that's 6 years young. The home offers a nice deck in the back for morning coffee and summer barbeques. If you like an open plan with lots of natural light-this is it! Split floor plan, huge dining area and a master bath with double sinks and nice large, closet. Custom window dressings will stay. Corner lot with mature trees front and back. Near City park with water feature. Call today.

Key facts

• Corner-lot home
• Spacious backyard
• Granite countertops

Tags

• CORNER-LOT HOME
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• SPACIOUS BACKYARD
• ZONED TO PEARLAND ISD SCHOOLS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association: Community Management Solutions; Annual association fee of $130; Community features include curbs and gutters

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Faces east; Built in 1996; Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick and cement siding; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Porch; Patio; Private fenced backyard; Corner lot; Concrete road surface

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas cooktop; Gas oven; Microwave; Disposal
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first level (17 x 12); Bedroom on second level (14 x 10); Bedroom on third level (12 x 10)
• Flooring: Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Double vanity; Soaking tub and separate shower
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Double vanity; Kitchen island; Kitchen/family room combo; Pantry; Soaking tub; Separate shower; Tub/shower combination; Ceiling fans; Kitchen/dining combo; Living/dining room; Gas log fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-75 ($-900/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $262k (4.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $250k (8.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $250k (8.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.0% in Pearland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#32 in TX, #1,539 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities D-, commute F.
• Pearland ISD (suburban): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #47 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: C J Harris El (math 44% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,243 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 561 students, 53% FRL); Pearland J H East (math 61% / reading 62%, grade B+, #141 of 1,662 statewide, top 9%, 848 students, 34% FRL); Pearland H S (math 58% / reading 64%, grade C+, #258 of 1,632 statewide, top 16%, 3,261 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 501 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($267k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 17y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $250,437 (8.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.17%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $323,312
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2902 Julie Ann Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,837 (0%)	1mo	$275,000	$150	99
2909 Veva Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,837 (0%)	6mo	$289,000	$157	92
4610 Meridian Park Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,830 (-0%)	7mo	$325,000	$178	83
4505 Brazos Bend Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,900 (+3%)	2mo	$335,000	$176	79
4505 Cedar Hill Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,865 (+2%)	6mo	$299,000	$160	79
2703 Village Mills Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,696 (-8%)	4mo	$315,000	$186	74
5405 Rockland Dr	0.44mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,714 (-7%)	1mo	$289,000	$169	62
3107 Centennial Village Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,680 (-8%)	1mo	$269,000	$160	60
2317 Cedar St	0.59mi	3/2.0	2,023 (+10%)	1mo	$360,000	$178	55
2406 Lynn Dr	0.56mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,088 (+14%)	2mo	$387,000	$185	45
2321 Pearland Ave	0.70mi	3/2.0	2,054 (+12%)	5mo	$200,000	$97	43
5201 Cunningham Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,590 (-13%)	1mo	$279,900	$176	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.47% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-53,002
• Equity at exit: $41,003

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-66,877
• Equity at exit: $23,777

Cash invested: $77,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77584

• Home prices YoY: -18.7%
• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 501
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,504 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$486 /mo · $5,828/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$11
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$526
• Net cashflow: $-75

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,599

Max offer price $261,757

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $81	-5% $3	+0% $-75	+5% $-153	+10% $-231
Rent	-10% $-273	-5% $-174	+0% $-75	+5% $24	+10% $123
Rate	-1.0pp $64	-0.5pp $-5	base $-75	+0.5pp $-146	+1.0pp $-219

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,750
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3803 Lancer Cir Unit 1467759P Pearland, TX	2.0	2.0	2034	$3,462	$1.70	0d	1	0.79mi
4009 Spring Forest Dr Pearland, TX	3.0	2.0	1976	$2,700	$1.37	3d	1	1.43mi
6520 Broadway St Unit 3165 Pearland, TX	3.0	2.0	1356	$1,949	$1.44	0d	1	1.44mi
6520 Broadway St Unit 3174 Pearland, TX	3.0	2.0	1356	$1,989	$1.47	12d	1	1.44mi
6520 Broadway St Unit 6553 Pearland, TX	3.0	2.0	1356	$1,860	$1.37	45d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $11 · $132/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-05-10
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-01
   status Pending
3. 2026-04-27
   price $275,000
4. 2026-04-24
   price $289,900
5. 2026-04-02
   listed $299,900 Active
6. 2014-07-08
   soldstatus
7. 2014-07-07
   soldstatus Sold 500-char remark

   Show marketing remark (500 chars)

   The search is over-well cared for home with laminate wood floors, stainless appliances, a LOW tax rate and roof that's 6 years young. The home offers a nice deck in the back for morning coffee and summer barbeques. If you like an open plan with lots of natural light-this is it! Split floor plan, huge dining area and a master bath with double sinks and nice large, closet. Custom window dressings will stay. Corner lot with mature trees front and back. Near City park with water feature. Call today.

8. 2014-06-16
   status Pending, Continue to Show 500-char remark

   Show marketing remark (500 chars)

   The search is over-well cared for home with laminate wood floors, stainless appliances, a LOW tax rate and roof that's 6 years young. The home offers a nice deck in the back for morning coffee and summer barbeques. If you like an open plan with lots of natural light-this is it! Split floor plan, huge dining area and a master bath with double sinks and nice large, closet. Custom window dressings will stay. Corner lot with mature trees front and back. Near City park with water feature. Call today.

9. 2014-06-04
   status Option Pending 500-char remark

   Show marketing remark (500 chars)

   The search is over-well cared for home with laminate wood floors, stainless appliances, a LOW tax rate and roof that's 6 years young. The home offers a nice deck in the back for morning coffee and summer barbeques. If you like an open plan with lots of natural light-this is it! Split floor plan, huge dining area and a master bath with double sinks and nice large, closet. Custom window dressings will stay. Corner lot with mature trees front and back. Near City park with water feature. Call today.

10. 2014-06-01
    listed $158,000 Active 500-char remark

    Show marketing remark (500 chars)

    The search is over-well cared for home with laminate wood floors, stainless appliances, a LOW tax rate and roof that's 6 years young. The home offers a nice deck in the back for morning coffee and summer barbeques. If you like an open plan with lots of natural light-this is it! Split floor plan, huge dining area and a master bath with double sinks and nice large, closet. Custom window dressings will stay. Corner lot with mature trees front and back. Near City park with water feature. Call today.

11. 2010-02-18
    soldstatus
12. 2010-02-17
    soldstatus 421-char remark

    Show marketing remark (421 chars)

    YOUR SEARCH IS OVER - THIS IS THE HOME FOR YOU. BEAUTIFUL DESIGNER COLORS, 14 SEER A/C, RIDGE VENTS, WOODEN DECK IN BACK YARD, HUGE 9X9 ENTRYWAY, 10 1/2 FT CEILINGS, WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE, KITCHEN HAS ISLAND AND IS OPEN TO LIVING AREA, NICE COUNTER SPACE. UPDATED LIGHTING. ALL WINDOW TREATMENTS STAY. SUBDIVISION NEXT TO CITY PARK WITH WATER FEATURE. MUST SEE TO APPRECIATE. CALL YOUR REALTOR FOR YOUR OWN PRIVATE TOUR.

13. 2010-01-05
    historical 421-char remark

    Show marketing remark (421 chars)

    YOUR SEARCH IS OVER - THIS IS THE HOME FOR YOU. BEAUTIFUL DESIGNER COLORS, 14 SEER A/C, RIDGE VENTS, WOODEN DECK IN BACK YARD, HUGE 9X9 ENTRYWAY, 10 1/2 FT CEILINGS, WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE, KITCHEN HAS ISLAND AND IS OPEN TO LIVING AREA, NICE COUNTER SPACE. UPDATED LIGHTING. ALL WINDOW TREATMENTS STAY. SUBDIVISION NEXT TO CITY PARK WITH WATER FEATURE. MUST SEE TO APPRECIATE. CALL YOUR REALTOR FOR YOUR OWN PRIVATE TOUR.

14. 2009-12-01
    listed $155,000 421-char remark

    Show marketing remark (421 chars)

    YOUR SEARCH IS OVER - THIS IS THE HOME FOR YOU. BEAUTIFUL DESIGNER COLORS, 14 SEER A/C, RIDGE VENTS, WOODEN DECK IN BACK YARD, HUGE 9X9 ENTRYWAY, 10 1/2 FT CEILINGS, WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE, KITCHEN HAS ISLAND AND IS OPEN TO LIVING AREA, NICE COUNTER SPACE. UPDATED LIGHTING. ALL WINDOW TREATMENTS STAY. SUBDIVISION NEXT TO CITY PARK WITH WATER FEATURE. MUST SEE TO APPRECIATE. CALL YOUR REALTOR FOR YOUR OWN PRIVATE TOUR.

15. 2004-06-21
    soldstatus
16. 2001-08-30
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,828 · $486/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,828 · $486/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 70% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,052
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$5,828
• − Insurance: −$1,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,404
• − Management: −$2,404
• − HOA: −$132
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable loss: −$5,496
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,319
• After-tax cash flow: $419/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pearland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4834440
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $90,091
• Composite: 53.67/100
• National rank: #1430
• State rank: #47 of 826 in TX

Livability — Pearland

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #32
• US rank: #1539

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living B Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pearland, TX
• County: Brazoria County · 374,982 people
• City population: 142,397
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 91,065
• Household income: $121,872
• Rent vs Own: 26.3% rent · 73.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1539.0

Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,414 people
• By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
• By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.76)
• Race & ethnicity: White 32% Hispanic / Latino 22% Asian 21% Black 21% Two or more races 14%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 14% Chinese 4% Other Indo-European 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

• 2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -49.09%
• Current HPI: 213.4011
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.47%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+77.4% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-10 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-01 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $275,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $289,900 HARMLS
• 2026-04-02 Listed $299,900 HARMLS
• 2014-07-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-07-07 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2014-06-16 Pending — HARMLS
• 2014-06-04 Pending — HARMLS
• 2014-06-01 Listed $158,000 HARMLS
• 2010-02-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2010-02-17 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2010-01-05 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2009-12-01 Listed $155,000 HARMLS
• 2004-06-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2001-08-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,828 · +0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.