2411 E Skipping Rock Way · Oro Valley, AZ 85737

$365,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,318 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 52 Days on market

Built 1998 5,053 sqft lot $277/sqft · 8% below area Est $396k · 8% under $42/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.6/30.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nestled in much desired Rams Canyon enclave! French doors from family room lead to covered patio overlooking nicely landscaped in-ground spa with stone water feature and relaxing privacy. Gorgeous mountain views from the eat in kitchen with breakfast bar. New neutral carpet in family and bedrooms with ceramic tile flooring in kitchen baths and laundry. Efficient floorplan maximizes living area in this immaculately maintained property located near hiking, shopping, entertainment and restaurants - Definite must see! One of the Owners is a Licensed Agent in AZ.

Key facts

• Covered patio
• Stone water feature
• Landscaped yard

Tags

• COVERED PATIO
• LANDSCAPED YARD
• IN-GROUND SPA
• STONE WATER FEATURE
• FRUIT TREES
• MOUNTAIN VIEWS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with quarterly fee ($42/month equivalent) covering common area maintenance; Community park; Community features include basketball court, paved streets, sidewalks, and walking trails

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener; 2 covered parking spaces
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water (water company); Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-family home; One story
• Construction: Frame construction with stucco exterior; Tile roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Block fencing; Decorative gravel and shrubs; Front sprinklers; Waterfall feature; Paved road access; East/West exposure; Subdivided lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Exhaust fan; Dishwasher; Disposal; Refrigerator; Gas range and gas oven; Microwave
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Vaulted ceilings; Walk-in closets; Wood-burning fireplace in the family room (1 total)
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room with washer and dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $365k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-178 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $334k (8.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $275k (24.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $275k (24.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.2% in Oro Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#2 in AZ, #1,339 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: commute D, amenities F, cost of living D-.
• Amphitheater Unified District (4406) (suburban): math 32% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #85 of 249 in AZ (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Copper Creek Elementary School (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #398 of 1,109 statewide, top 37%, 297 students, 25% FRL); Lawrence W Cross Middle School (math 43% / reading 56%, grade C, #29 of 218 statewide, top 13%, 756 students, 26% FRL); Canyon Del Oro High School (math 45% / reading 42%, grade F, #65 of 381 statewide, top 17%, 1,691 students, 17% FRL) — zoned schools at 22% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 163 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($107k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($354k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $202k; list at $365k implies a 81% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 9→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $275,377 (24.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.71%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.09%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $395,927
• List price: $365,000
• Delta: -7.81%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2379 E Skipping Rock Way	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,318 (0%)	6mo	$340,380	$258	93
11371 N Flat Granite Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,318 (0%)	2mo	$340,000	$258	91
11101 N Rams Horn Trl	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,301 (-1%)	1mo	$415,000	$319	87
11281 N Majestic Ram Pl	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,376 (+4%)	4mo	$376,000	$273	84
2257 E Skipping Rock Way	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,463 (+11%)	6mo	$393,000	$269	69

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.7% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-71,366
• Equity at exit: $54,423

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-80,365
• Equity at exit: $31,559

Cash invested: $102,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85737

• Home prices YoY: -19.6%
• Rents YoY: 2.7%
• Active inventory: 163
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,754 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,914
• Tax from tax record: −$245 /mo · $2,942/yr
• Insurance: −$152
• HOA: −$42
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$578
• Net cashflow: $-178

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,979

Max offer price $333,578

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $91,250
• Closing costs: $10,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2289 E Stone Stable Dr Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1463	$2,600	$1.78	44d	1	0.12mi
2227 E Stone Stable Dr Tucson, AZ	4.0	2.0	1759	$3,500	$1.99	23d	1	0.19mi
2221 E Stone Stable Dr Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1759	$3,500	$1.99	23d	1	0.19mi
2215 E Stone Stable Dr Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1463	$3,500	$2.39	23d	1	0.20mi
11177 N Oracle Rd Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1279	$1,808	$1.41	23d	1	0.31mi
1500 E Pusch Wilderness Dr #9105 Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1057	$2,150	$2.03	44d	1	0.90mi
1500 E Pusch Wilderness Dr Unit 17203 Oro Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	929	$2,200	$2.37	44d	1	0.98mi
1500 E Pusch Wilderness Dr Unit 8208 Oro Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1268	$2,200	$1.74	44d	1	0.98mi
11752 N Labyrinth Dr Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1366	$2,150	$1.57	44d	1	1.07mi
10730 N Oracle Rd Tucson, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1078	$2,020	$1.87	2d	22	1.19mi
11979 N Labyrinth Dr Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1697	$3,900	$2.30	44d	1	1.21mi
11955 N Labyrinth Dr Unit NA Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1865	$3,750	$2.01	23d	1	1.28mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $42 · $504/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $365,000 Active 52 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $365,000 Active 51 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $365,000 Active 50 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $365,000 Active 49 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $365,000 Active 47 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $365,000 Active 44 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   pricedays on market $365,000 Active 43 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $370,000 Active 42 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $370,000 Active 41 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $370,000 Active 38 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $370,000 Active 37 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $370,000 Active 36 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $370,000 Active 35 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $370,000 Active 34 DOM
15. 2026-05-18
    price $370,000 781-char remark
16. 2026-04-27
    listed $375,000 Active 781-char remark
17. 2017-09-08
    soldstatus $201,500 Closed 565-char remark

    Show marketing remark (565 chars)

    Nestled in much desired Rams Canyon enclave! French doors from family room lead to covered patio overlooking nicely landscaped in-ground spa with stone water feature and relaxing privacy. Gorgeous mountain views from the eat in kitchen with breakfast bar. New neutral carpet in family and bedrooms with ceramic tile flooring in kitchen baths and laundry. Efficient floorplan maximizes living area in this immaculately maintained property located near hiking, shopping, entertainment and restaurants - Definite must see! One of the Owners is a Licensed Agent in AZ.

18. 2017-09-08
    soldstatus $201,500

    Show marketing remark (565 chars)

    Nestled in much desired Rams Canyon enclave! French doors from family room lead to covered patio overlooking nicely landscaped in-ground spa with stone water feature and relaxing privacy. Gorgeous mountain views from the eat in kitchen with breakfast bar. New neutral carpet in family and bedrooms with ceramic tile flooring in kitchen baths and laundry. Efficient floorplan maximizes living area in this immaculately maintained property located near hiking, shopping, entertainment and restaurants - Definite must see! One of the Owners is a Licensed Agent in AZ.

19. 2017-07-31
    status Pending 565-char remark

    Show marketing remark (565 chars)

    Nestled in much desired Rams Canyon enclave! French doors from family room lead to covered patio overlooking nicely landscaped in-ground spa with stone water feature and relaxing privacy. Gorgeous mountain views from the eat in kitchen with breakfast bar. New neutral carpet in family and bedrooms with ceramic tile flooring in kitchen baths and laundry. Efficient floorplan maximizes living area in this immaculately maintained property located near hiking, shopping, entertainment and restaurants - Definite must see! One of the Owners is a Licensed Agent in AZ.

20. 2017-06-15
    historical Active Contingent 565-char remark

    Show marketing remark (565 chars)

    Nestled in much desired Rams Canyon enclave! French doors from family room lead to covered patio overlooking nicely landscaped in-ground spa with stone water feature and relaxing privacy. Gorgeous mountain views from the eat in kitchen with breakfast bar. New neutral carpet in family and bedrooms with ceramic tile flooring in kitchen baths and laundry. Efficient floorplan maximizes living area in this immaculately maintained property located near hiking, shopping, entertainment and restaurants - Definite must see! One of the Owners is a Licensed Agent in AZ.

21. 2017-06-15
    listed $205,000 Active 565-char remark

    Show marketing remark (565 chars)

    Nestled in much desired Rams Canyon enclave! French doors from family room lead to covered patio overlooking nicely landscaped in-ground spa with stone water feature and relaxing privacy. Gorgeous mountain views from the eat in kitchen with breakfast bar. New neutral carpet in family and bedrooms with ceramic tile flooring in kitchen baths and laundry. Efficient floorplan maximizes living area in this immaculately maintained property located near hiking, shopping, entertainment and restaurants - Definite must see! One of the Owners is a Licensed Agent in AZ.

22. 2011-11-30
    soldstatus $147,000

    Show marketing remark (485 chars)

    Beautiful Oro Valley home tucked away in Ram’s Canyon! Features and Upgrades include: 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, single story, greatroom, fireplace, tile flooring, brand new neutral carpet, laundry room, eat in kitchen, plus breakfast bar, beautifully landscaped yard, in-ground spa with rock feature, covered patio, walking distance to Catalina State Park walking paths, and beautiful mountain views from the kitchen table! Must see!! Shows to perfection! Not a short sale or REO.

23. 2011-11-30
    soldstatus $147,000

    Show marketing remark (485 chars)

    Beautiful Oro Valley home tucked away in Ram’s Canyon! Features and Upgrades include: 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, single story, greatroom, fireplace, tile flooring, brand new neutral carpet, laundry room, eat in kitchen, plus breakfast bar, beautifully landscaped yard, in-ground spa with rock feature, covered patio, walking distance to Catalina State Park walking paths, and beautiful mountain views from the kitchen table! Must see!! Shows to perfection! Not a short sale or REO.

24. 2011-11-05
    historical

    Show marketing remark (485 chars)

    Beautiful Oro Valley home tucked away in Ram’s Canyon! Features and Upgrades include: 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, single story, greatroom, fireplace, tile flooring, brand new neutral carpet, laundry room, eat in kitchen, plus breakfast bar, beautifully landscaped yard, in-ground spa with rock feature, covered patio, walking distance to Catalina State Park walking paths, and beautiful mountain views from the kitchen table! Must see!! Shows to perfection! Not a short sale or REO.

25. 2011-11-04
    listed $149,900

    Show marketing remark (485 chars)

    Beautiful Oro Valley home tucked away in Ram’s Canyon! Features and Upgrades include: 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, single story, greatroom, fireplace, tile flooring, brand new neutral carpet, laundry room, eat in kitchen, plus breakfast bar, beautifully landscaped yard, in-ground spa with rock feature, covered patio, walking distance to Catalina State Park walking paths, and beautiful mountain views from the kitchen table! Must see!! Shows to perfection! Not a short sale or REO.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,942 · $245/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,942 · $245/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 9 d/yr ≥104°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,045
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,446
• − Property taxes: −$2,942
• − Insurance: −$1,825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,644
• − Management: −$2,644
• − HOA: −$504
• − Depreciation: −$10,618
• Taxable loss: −$8,577
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,058
• After-tax cash flow: $-76/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Amphitheater Unified District (4406)
• NCES district ID: 0400680
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $46,524
• Composite: 30.82/100
• National rank: #6135
• State rank: #85 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Oro Valley

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #2
• US rank: #1339

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D Cost of living D- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Oro Valley, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,012,107 people
• City population: 41,345
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 22,785
• Household income: $107,348
• Rent vs Own: 24.1% rent · 75.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 666.0

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 12% Asian 3% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -63.56%
• Current HPI: 261.4417
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.70%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+143.5% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Price Changed $365,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $370,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-04-27 Listed $375,000 MLSSAZ
• 2017-09-08 Sold (Public Records) $201,500 Public Records
• 2017-09-08 Sold (MLS) $201,500 MLSSAZ
• 2017-07-31 Pending — MLSSAZ
• 2017-06-15 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2017-06-15 Listed $205,000 MLSSAZ
• 2011-11-30 Sold (Public Records) $147,000 Public Records
• 2011-11-30 Sold (MLS) $147,000 MLSSAZ
• 2011-11-05 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2011-11-04 Listed $149,900 MLSSAZ

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,942 · +17.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.