651 Louis Coleman Junior Dr · Louisville, KY 40211

$140,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,575 sqft · SingleFamily · 41 Days on market

Built 1913 8,276 sqft lot Est $132k · 6% over ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.9/30.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• ARV discount +4.9/15.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 8,276 sq ft lot
• Built 1913
• Listed 41 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association fee

Exterior

• Parking: No designated parking
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Natural gas
• Home design: Single-family bungalow; 2 stories; Built in 1913
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Poured concrete foundation
• Exterior features: Level lot; Chain link fencing; Lot dimensions approximately 40 x 205

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the first floor; First-floor dining area adjacent to kitchen
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the second floor
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning; One HVAC unit
• Interior features: 6 total rooms; Unfinished basement
• Laundry & utility: No first-floor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $220 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $136k (3.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $136k (3.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 5.0% in Louisville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#333 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety D+, schools D-.
• Jefferson County (urban): math 19% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #121 of 165 in KY (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.9%/yr); 140 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,836 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (1,558 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,355/mo this rent would consume 51% of the median local household income ($32k/yr) (locally 1483% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1913 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $135,507 (3.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1913 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.72%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $132,300
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
714 Dearborn Ave	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,631 (+4%)	1mo	$110,000	$67	73
824 S 36th St	0.37mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,568 (-0%)	5mo	$120,000	$77	71
633 S 36th St	0.19mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,478 (-6%)	7mo	$150,000	$101	70
816 Dearborn Ave	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,628 (+3%)	2mo	$63,500	$39	68
817 S 36th St	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,447 (-8%)	7mo	$144,000	$100	62
634 S 38th St	0.43mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,500 (-5%)	5mo	$165,000	$110	61
624 S 39th St	0.51mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,596 (+1%)	5mo	$180,000	$113	61
114 S 33rd St	0.66mi	3/1.5	1,453 (-8%)	4mo	$110,000	$76	53
732 S 40th St	0.61mi	3/1.0	1,496 (-5%)	10mo	$37,500	$25	53
4109 River Park Dr	0.72mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,540 (-2%)	9mo	$130,000	$84	50
739 S 38th St	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,373 (-13%)	9mo	$125,000	$91	48
636 S 40th St	0.60mi	3/1.0	1,735 (+10%)	7mo	$140,000	$81	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.87% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-6,151
• Equity at exit: $20,874

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.60×
• Total profit: $23,522
• Equity at exit: $12,105

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40211

• Home prices YoY: -33.4%
• Rents YoY: 4.9%
• Active inventory: 140
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,355 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$58 /mo · $700/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$285
• Net cashflow: $220

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,077

Max offer price $140,000

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $299	-5% $259	+0% $220	+5% $180	+10% $140
Rent	-10% $113	-5% $166	+0% $220	+5% $273	+10% $327
Rate	-1.0pp $290	-0.5pp $255	base $220	+0.5pp $183	+1.0pp $146

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
737 S 33rd St Louisville, KY	4.0	1.0	1356	$1,595	$1.18	24d	1	0.25mi
652 S 37th St #9 Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1070	$1,095	$1.02	24d	1	0.30mi
803 S 35th St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1486	$1,350	$0.91	24d	1	0.30mi
814 S 33rd St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1104	$1,350	$1.22	4d	1	0.32mi
627 S 38th St Louisville, KY	4.0	1.0	1300	$1,349	$1.04	16d	1	0.38mi
820 Hazel St Louisville, KY	4.0	2.0	1872	$1,395	$0.75	3d	1	0.41mi
3819 River Park Dr Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1108	$1,090	$0.98	21d	1	0.46mi
628 S 39th St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1448	$1,220	$0.84	16d	1	0.47mi
823 S 38th St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,195	$1.09	4d	1	0.51mi
3922 River Park Dr Louisville, KY	2.0	2.0	1800	$1,195	$0.66	12d	1	0.55mi
644 S 40th St Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,500	$1.25	3d	1	0.57mi
722 S 40th St Unit NA Louisville, KY	4.0	2.5	1556	$1,700	$1.09	4d	1	0.59mi
836 S 41st St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,300	$1.00	19d	1	0.72mi
803 Cecil Ave Louisville, KY	4.0	1.0	1165	$1,449	$1.24	11d	1	0.73mi
3514 Grand Ave Louisville, KY	3.0	1.5	1450	$1,295	$0.89	22d	1	0.75mi
2912 Greenwood Ave Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	1362	$1,150	$0.84	16d	1	0.75mi
2825 Greenwood Ave #2 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	1300	$995	$0.77	24d	1	0.76mi
2825 Greenwood Ave #4 Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1440	$1,250	$0.87	24d	1	0.76mi
2821 Greenwood Ave #1 Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1113	$1,300	$1.17	24d	1	0.77mi
1115 S 32nd St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1393	$1,275	$0.92	22d	1	0.78mi
1115 S 32nd St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1393	$1,275	$0.92	24d	1	0.78mi
2634 Garland Ave Unit A Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1152	$940	$0.82	24d	1	0.79mi
2634 Garland Ave Unit B Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1152	$895	$0.78	21d	1	0.79mi
2711 W Kentucky St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1155	$1,100	$0.95	24d	1	0.79mi
4129 W Muhammad Ali Blvd Louisville, KY	4.0	2.0	1224	$1,500	$1.23	2d	1	0.79mi
714 S 42nd St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1078	$1,150	$1.07	16d	1	0.80mi
663 S 43rd St Louisville, KY	2.0	2.0	1736	$1,250	$0.72	24d	1	0.84mi
247 Cecil Ave Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	1083	$1,305	$1.20	19d	1	0.84mi
2708 Greenwood Ave Apt 1 Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,300	$1.18	24d	1	0.88mi
430 S 24th St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.5	1288	$1,400	$1.09	24d	1	0.93mi
106 N 40th St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1325	$1,220	$0.92	4d	1	0.95mi
2416 Garland Ave Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	1172	$1,600	$1.37	24d	1	0.96mi
127 N 40th St Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,570	$1.05	4d	1	0.97mi
2319 W Muhammad Ali Blvd Louisville, KY	4.0	1.0	1644	$1,300	$0.79	16d	1	1.00mi
2529 W Main St #2 Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1404	$1,200	$0.85	24d	1	1.04mi
2706 Hale Ave Unit 1 Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,400	$1.27	24d	1	1.04mi
2508 W Main St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1327	$1,500	$1.13	24d	1	1.05mi
848 S 23rd St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.5	1050	$1,450	$1.38	24d	1	1.06mi
2913 Dumesnil St Apt 3 Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1112	$740	$0.67	11d	1	1.06mi
4221 Sunset Ave Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1075	$1,199	$1.12	24d	1	1.10mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $140,000 Active 41 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $140,000 Active 40 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $140,000 Active 39 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $140,000 Active 38 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $140,000 Active 36 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $140,000 Active 33 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $140,000 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $140,000 Active 31 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $140,000 Active 30 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $144,900 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $144,900 Active 25 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $144,900 Active 24 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $144,900 Active 23 DOM
14. 2026-05-19
    price $144,900
15. 2026-05-08
    listed $149,000 Active
16. 2026-03-05
    price $164,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $700 · $58/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,204 · $100/mo
• Expected delta: +$504/yr (+$42/mo · 72.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,261
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$700
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,301
• − Management: −$1,301
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable income: $344
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$83
• After-tax cash flow: $2,553/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County
• NCES district ID: 2102990
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $47,885
• Composite: 23.45/100
• National rank: #7884
• State rank: #121 of 165 in KY

Livability — Louisville

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #333
• US rank: #15887

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Louisville, KY
• County: Jefferson County · 790,184 people
• City population: 769,292
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 20,407
• Household income: $31,749
• Rent vs Own: 58.6% rent · 41.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1483.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 823,112 people
• By 2030: 849,343 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 895,696 · +8.8%
• By 2050: 933,630 · +13.4%
• By 2075: 1,028,262 · +24.9%
• By 2100: 1,072,675 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 90% White 5% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+16.6) · D 57.4% · R 40.9% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.5pp toward D · 2008: 12.0pp · 2024: 16.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.6 2020: D+20.1 2016: D+13.3 2012: D+11.1 2008: D+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.22%
• Current HPI: 176.337
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.87%
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

-11.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $144,900 Metro Search MLS
• 2026-05-08 Listed $149,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $164,000 Metro Search MLS

Property tax history

+7.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $700 · -1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.