2236 Burns St · Combee Settlement, FL 33801

$114,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 754 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 206 Days on market

Built 1930 6,874 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.9/30.0
• DSCR +8.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great opportunity for an investor, first-time homebuyer, or anyone looking for simple, low-maintenance living! This cozy home features 2 bedrooms plus an office, offering flexibility for remote work or hobbies. The kitchen includes a dedicated eating space, perfect for casual meals. Major updates provide peace of mind, including a metal roof only 5 years old and a recently replaced septic system and drain field. Located just minutes from beautiful Lake Parker and Lake Parker Park, where you’ll find a public boat ramp, fishing dock, playground, and recreational activities. Conveniently close to shopping, dining, and entertainment with easy access to I-4 for a smooth commute. Don’

Key facts

• Fishing dock
• Metal roof
• Public boat ramp

Tags

• DEDICATED EATING SPACE
• METAL ROOF
• PUBLIC BOAT RAMP
• FISHING DOCK
• CLOSE TO SHOPPING
• EASY ACCESS TO I-4

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: R-2
• HOA & community: No association; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank; Electricity connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; South-facing
• Construction: Frame construction with wood siding; Metal roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Building area approximately 1,058 sq ft; Living area approximately 754 sq ft; Total lot size about 0.16 acre
• Exterior features: Lighting; Private mailbox; Paved road access; Lot approximately 0.16 acre (50 x 138)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Ductless heating; Wall/window cooling units
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Wood-burning fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $114k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $281 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $114k).
• Recommended offer: $100k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#476 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Philip O'Brien Elementary School (math 31% / reading 30%, grade F, #1,862 of 2,144 statewide, top 88%, 627 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools at 61% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 253 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($53k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $788 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 206 days — a 12% lower offer ($100k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $90k; 27% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $100,320 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 206 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.58%
• DSCR: 1.47
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.05% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.90×
• Total profit: $-3,119
• Equity at exit: $16,998

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.32×
• Total profit: $10,234
• Equity at exit: $9,857

Cash invested: $31,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33801

• Home prices YoY: -15.9%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 253
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,341 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$598
• Tax from tax record: −$133 /mo · $1,591/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$282
• Net cashflow: $281

Break-even live

Break-even rent $985

Max offer price $114,000

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,500
• Closing costs: $3,420
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2248 Weber St Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	640	$1,335	$2.09	3d	1	0.06mi
2417 Golfview St Lakeland, FL	3.0	1.0	798	$1,395	$1.75	10d	1	0.24mi
832 N Combee Rd Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	560	$1,195	$2.13	23d	1	0.43mi
2625 Kelly Ln Lakeland, FL	1.0	1.0	560	$1,200	$2.14	23d	1	0.65mi
2437 Idlewild St Lakeland, FL	1.0	1.0	550	$1,099	$2.00	14d	1	0.72mi
2437 Idlewild St Lakeland, FL	1.0	1.0	550	$1,099	$2.00	23d	1	0.72mi
2415 Idlewild St Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,300	$1.44	23d	1	0.73mi
2184 Colonial Ave Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1123	$1,645	$1.46	23d	1	0.89mi
1736 E Fern Rd Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	820	$1,325	$1.62	23d	1	0.91mi
3245 E Main St Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,100	$1.47	23d	1	1.25mi
3245 E Main St Unit 2 Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	700	$1,250	$1.79	14d	1	1.25mi
2023 Tennyson St Unit 2025 Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	884	$1,095	$1.24	23d	1	1.25mi
1452 Ridge Lake Ct Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.5	960	$1,700	$1.77	21d	1	1.26mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $114,000 Active 206 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $114,000 Active 205 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $114,000 Active 204 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $114,000 Active 203 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $114,000 Active 201 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $114,000 Active 198 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $114,000 Active 197 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $114,000 Active 196 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $114,000 Active 195 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $114,000 Active 192 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $114,000 Active 190 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $114,000 Active 189 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $114,000 Active 188 DOM
14. 2026-05-05
    price $114,000
15. 2026-02-10
    status Active
16. 2025-12-16
    soldstatus $90,000
17. 2025-11-12
    status Pending
18. 2025-09-10
    price $119,000
19. 2025-08-25
    listed $129,000 Active
20. 1972-01-01
    soldstatus $7,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,591 · $133/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,591 · $133/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,090
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,386
• − Property taxes: −$1,591
• − Insurance: −$570
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,287
• − Management: −$1,287
• − Depreciation: −$3,316
• Taxable income: $1,653
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$397
• After-tax cash flow: $2,980/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Combee Settlement

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #476
• US rank: #8672

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Combee Settlement, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 35,394
• Household income: $53,061
• Rent vs Own: 51.3% rent · 48.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1291.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 19% Black 16% Two or more races 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 8% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 14% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -70.91%
• Current HPI: 373.7159
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.05%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1528.6% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $114,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-10 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-16 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records
• 2025-11-12 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-10 Price Changed $119,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-25 Listed $129,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1972-01-01 Sold (Public Records) $7,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+15.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,591 · +13.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.