5333 Baileya · Twentynine Palms, CA 92277

$199,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,320 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 21 Days on market

Built 1990 8,775 sqft lot $151/sqft · 30% below area Est $286k · 30% under ↓ 43% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This single story full authority probate sale is a great starter home with the right buyer with a little elbow grease and some extra funds to get it the way you want it! Only serious buyers considered and may not finance due to its current condition. Arrange for a showing ASAP to get the deal of a lifetime!

Key facts

• 8,775 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1990

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $297 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $197k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 4.3% in Twentynine Palms — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#622 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, employment D-.
• Morongo Unified (town): math 15% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #395 of 517 in CA (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 734 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $196,901 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.37%
• DSCR: 1.28
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $285,943
• List price: $199,900
• Delta: -30.06%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
71915 Samarkand Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,260 (-4%)	7mo	$295,000	$234	83
5464 Mariposa	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,293 (-2%)	6mo	$235,000	$182	79
5474 Cahuilla Ave	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,238 (-6%)	1mo	$295,000	$238	78
5564 Mariposa	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,269 (-4%)	4mo	$284,000	$224	74
5629 Cahuilla Ave	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+2%)	14mo	$286,000	$213	66
5447 Encelia Dr	0.24mi	3/1.0	1,224 (-7%)	9mo	$240,000	$196	65
5616 Cahuilla Ave	0.38mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,405 (+6%)	4mo	$305,000	$217	63
5304 Morongo Rd	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,470 (+11%)	6mo	$259,000	$176	63
5444 Daisy Ave	0.22mi	3/1.0	1,132 (-14%)	0mo	$192,000	$170	62
5481 Abronia Ave	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,475 (+12%)	16mo	$320,000	$217	58
5374 Cahuilla Ave	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,134 (-14%)	13mo	$265,000	$234	58
5528 Daisy Ave	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,143 (-13%)	14mo	$233,900	$205	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.45% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-10,535
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.49×
• Total profit: $27,590
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92277

• Home prices YoY: -3.1%
• Rents YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 734
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,001 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$152 /mo · $1,821/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $297

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,624

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5415 Lupine Ave Twentynine Palms, CA	3.0	2.0	1414	$2,400	$1.70	43d	1	0.16mi
5575 Encelia Dr Unit 29 Twentynine Palms, CA	4.0	2.5	1496	$2,095	$1.40	1d	1	0.33mi
71745 Sunnyslope Dr Twentynine Palms, CA	2.0	2.0	912	$1,600	$1.75	43d	1	0.75mi
5995 Encelia Dr Twentynine Palms, CA	3.0	2.0	1235	$2,499	$2.02	4d	1	0.83mi
72256 Sunnyslope Dr Twentynine Palms, CA	2.0	1.0	896	$1,350	$1.51	12d	1	0.87mi
5930 Regino Ave Unit 29 Twentynine Palms, CA	3.0	2.0	1314	$1,700	$1.29	5d	1	0.90mi
72211 Sunnyvale Dr Twentynine Palms, CA	2.0	1.0	998	$1,500	$1.50	3d	1	0.92mi
72255 Sunnyvale Dr Twentynine Palms, CA	3.0	1.5	1187	$1,600	$1.35	24d	1	0.95mi
71593 Sunflower Dr Twentynine Palms, CA	3.0	2.0	1314	$1,995	$1.52	12d	1	0.95mi
6182 Mojave Ave Twentynine Palms, CA	2.0	1.0	998	$1,300	$1.30	24d	1	1.04mi
72548 Sunnyslope Dr Twentynine Palms, CA	3.0	2.0	1647	$2,150	$1.31	4d	1	1.10mi
72949 Siesta Dr Twentynine Palms, CA	3.0	1.5	1380	$2,350	$1.70	3d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,900 Active 21 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,900 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,900 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,900 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,900 Active 16 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,900 Active 15 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,900 Active 12 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,900 Active 11 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,900 Active 10 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $199,900 Active 7 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,900 Active 6 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,900 Active 5 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,900 Active 4 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,900 Active 3 DOM
15. 2026-05-02
    historical
16. 2026-04-28
    price $199,999
17. 2025-12-04
    listed $209,900 Active
18. 2025-11-30
    historical
19. 2025-10-11
    price $209,900
20. 2025-09-07
    price $219,900
21. 2025-08-30
    listed $350,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,821 · $152/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,821 · $152/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,008
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$1,821
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,921
• − Management: −$1,921
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable income: $333
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$80
• After-tax cash flow: $3,486/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Morongo Unified
• NCES district ID: 0625860
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $39,399
• Composite: 22.19/100
• National rank: #8156
• State rank: #395 of 517 in CA

Livability — Twentynine Palms

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #622
• US rank: #19731

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living C Crime C Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Twentynine Palms, CA
• County: San Bernardino County · 2,030,291 people
• City population: 26,277
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 26,277
• Household income: $60,901
• Rent vs Own: 56.7% rent · 43.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1057.0

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Two or more races 24% Hispanic / Latino 24% Black 9% Asian 4% Pacific Islander 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.15%
• Current HPI: 380.5083
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.45%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-42.9% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $199,999 CRMLS
• 2025-12-04 Listed $209,900 CRMLS
• 2025-11-30 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-10-11 Price Changed $209,900 CRMLS
• 2025-09-07 Price Changed $219,900 CRMLS
• 2025-08-30 Listed $350,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,821 · +6.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.