8243 Cottontail Ln · White Mountain Lake, AZ 85901

$144,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 408 sqft · Manufactured public records · 33 Days on market

Built 1988 2,613 sqft lot Est $155k · 7% under $242/mo HOA · 19% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.6/15.0
• Cash flow +9.8/30.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

What an amazing opportunity to own a resort lifestyle at an amazing price! Located very close to the clubhouse and amenities, and with a new roof, this park model with large add on comes fully furnished and turnkey for you to enjoy and entertain immediately. Located in a 55 plus resort community with 18 hole private golf, heated pool and spa, tennis, pickleball, bocce, fishing, billiards, games and crafts, gym and locker rooms, clubhouse, commercial kitchen, library, beauty salon, daily and weekly activities and access to large boating lake and Silver Creek Golf course and restaurant.

Key facts

• New pavers
• Synthetic grass
• Remodeled bathroom

Tags

• SCREENED-IN COVERED PATIO
• REMODELED BATHROOM
• NEW DUAL PANE WINDOWS
• NEW MINI SPLIT A/C
• NEW PAVERS
• SYNTHETIC GRASS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Private maintained road; Zoning: SP; Approx. 0.06 acres; Does not raise horses; Property adjoins private land; No warranty
• HOA & community: HOA with clubhouse, pool, spa, tennis court, exercise facility, laundry; mandatory membership and rental restrictions; HOA dues $726 quarterly; Located in a 55+ community (Juniper Ridge Phase 1, Lot 117)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport (1)
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: Public sewer; Water available; Power available (APS, individually metered electric); Sewer available
• Home design: Park model / RV residential type; Manufactured construction; One story; Entry faces private property
• Construction: Manufactured home; Pitched shingle roof; Other foundation; Built by Fuqua; Remodeled in 2025; Park model
• Exterior features: Gated community; Covered and screened patio with awning(s); Patio; Gutters and downspouts; Utility building; Street is paved; Corners of property marked

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Microwave; Pantry; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Includes a potential extra bedroom
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: Full bath with shower
• Heating & cooling: Mini-split heating and cooling; Electric water heater
• Interior features: Smoke detector; Vaulted ceiling; Partially furnished; Laminate flooring
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer in utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $144k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-93 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $128k (11.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $127k (11.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $127k (11.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 4.2% in White Mountain Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#141 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Show Low Unified District (4393) (rural): math 32% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #89 of 249 in AZ (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 891 active listings in the ZIP; 485 units permitted in Navajo County in 2024 (11 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $996 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Navajo County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($140k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $144k implies a 81% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $127,477 (11.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.52%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.77%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $154,632
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8248 Bogie Loop	0.39mi	1/1.0	430 (+5%)	9mo	$162,900	$379	66
8211 Lake Shore Dr	0.61mi	1/1.0	375 (-8%)	1mo	$132,000	$352	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-29,173
• Equity at exit: $21,471

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-32,690
• Equity at exit: $12,450

Cash invested: $40,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85901

• Home prices YoY: -14.5%
• Active inventory: 891
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,275 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$755
• Tax from tax record: −$43 /mo · $515/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$242
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$268
• Net cashflow: $-93

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,392

Max offer price $127,572

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,000
• Closing costs: $4,320
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $242 · $2,904/yr
• Likely covers: poolgym

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $144,000 Active 33 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $144,000 Active 32 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $144,000 Active 31 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $144,000 Active 30 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $144,000 Active 29 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $144,000 Active 27 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $144,000 Active 26 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $144,000 Active 23 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $144,000 Active 22 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $144,000 Active 21 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $144,000 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $144,000 Active 17 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $144,000 Active 16 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $144,000 Active 15 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $144,000 Active 14 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $144,000 Active 13 DOM
17. 2026-05-17
    listed $144,000 Active
18. 2020-08-27
    soldstatus $79,500
19. 2017-08-23
    soldstatus $40,000 591-char remark

    Show marketing remark (591 chars)

    What an amazing opportunity to own a resort lifestyle at an amazing price! Located very close to the clubhouse and amenities, and with a new roof, this park model with large add on comes fully furnished and turnkey for you to enjoy and entertain immediately. Located in a 55 plus resort community with 18 hole private golf, heated pool and spa, tennis, pickleball, bocce, fishing, billiards, games and crafts, gym and locker rooms, clubhouse, commercial kitchen, library, beauty salon, daily and weekly activities and access to large boating lake and Silver Creek Golf course and restaurant.

20. 2017-08-21
    soldstatus $40,000 591-char remark

    Show marketing remark (591 chars)

    What an amazing opportunity to own a resort lifestyle at an amazing price! Located very close to the clubhouse and amenities, and with a new roof, this park model with large add on comes fully furnished and turnkey for you to enjoy and entertain immediately. Located in a 55 plus resort community with 18 hole private golf, heated pool and spa, tennis, pickleball, bocce, fishing, billiards, games and crafts, gym and locker rooms, clubhouse, commercial kitchen, library, beauty salon, daily and weekly activities and access to large boating lake and Silver Creek Golf course and restaurant.

21. 2017-06-13
    listed $50,000 591-char remark

    Show marketing remark (591 chars)

    What an amazing opportunity to own a resort lifestyle at an amazing price! Located very close to the clubhouse and amenities, and with a new roof, this park model with large add on comes fully furnished and turnkey for you to enjoy and entertain immediately. Located in a 55 plus resort community with 18 hole private golf, heated pool and spa, tennis, pickleball, bocce, fishing, billiards, games and crafts, gym and locker rooms, clubhouse, commercial kitchen, library, beauty salon, daily and weekly activities and access to large boating lake and Silver Creek Golf course and restaurant.

22. 1995-09-29
    soldstatus $25,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $515 · $43/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $950 · $79/mo
• Expected delta: +$435/yr (+$36/mo · 84.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 4 d/yr ≥90°F today · 9 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,297
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,066
• − Property taxes: −$515
• − Insurance: −$720
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,224
• − Management: −$1,224
• − HOA: −$2,904
• − Depreciation: −$4,189
• Taxable loss: −$3,545
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$851
• After-tax cash flow: $-265/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Show Low Unified District (4393)
• NCES district ID: 0407700
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $41,240
• Composite: 29.9/100
• National rank: #6387
• State rank: #89 of 249 in AZ

Livability — White Mountain Lake

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #141
• US rank: #16914

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: White Mountain Lake, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 18,821

Population outlook (Navajo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,760 people
• By 2030: 103,301 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 97,070 · -8.2%
• By 2050: 88,850 · -16.0%
• By 2075: 65,180 · -38.4%
• By 2100: 37,281 · -64.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 11% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 7% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Navajo

• 2024 margin: R (+17.2) · D 40.9% · R 58.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.5pp toward R · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -17.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.2 2020: R+8.2 2016: R+7.9 2012: R+8.4 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -65.52%
• Current HPI: 386.3007
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+476.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Listed $144,000 WMMLS
• 2020-08-27 Sold (Public Records) $79,500 Public Records
• 2017-08-23 Sold (MLS) $40,000 WMMLS
• 2017-08-21 Sold (MLS) $40,000 ARMLS
• 2017-06-13 Listed $50,000 ARMLS
• 1995-09-29 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $515 · +3.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.