Is 1102 Mary Ashby Way in Pennington, NJ a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it F with a 3.9% cap rate and $-842/mo modeled cash flow at a $425,990 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 1102 Mary Ashby Way?

The modeled cap rate is 3.9% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $2,661/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

F Composite 31.86

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +9.5/15.0
Cash flow +5.9/30.0
Schools +5.1/10.0
Livability +4.0/5.0
Condition / age +4.0/5.0
Rent growth +1.9/5.0
1% rule +1.2/10.0
DSCR +0.2/10.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$425,990

1102 Mary Ashby Way · Pennington, NJ 08534

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,267 sqft · Townhouse · 124 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $336/sqft · at area comps Est $446k · at est.

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

This new single-level condominium boasts a modern and low maintenance layout. An open-concept floorplan combines the kitchen, living and dining areas to maximize interior space, with sliding doors leading to a deck for outdoor entertaining. A secondary bedroom is located off the foyer, and the luxurious owner's suite is tucked away at the back of the home, complete with a full-sized bathroom and walk-in closet.

Key facts

Full-sized bathroom
Outdoor entertaining
Walk-in closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $426k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-842 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $304k (28.6% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $266k (37.5% below list).
Recommended offer: $266k (37.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Cap rate 3.9% vs local median 2.5% in Pennington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

Location reads 79/100 on livability (#84 in NJ, #2,077 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F.
Hopewell Valley Regional School District (suburban): math 39% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #72 of 472 in NJ (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 2% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
Zoned schools: Bear Tavern Elementary School (math 27% / reading 57%, grade F, #422 of 1,303 statewide, top 35%, 459 students, 3% FRL); Timberlane Middle School (math 40% / reading 69%, grade B-, #68 of 431 statewide, top 16%, 780 students, 3% FRL); Hopewell Valley Central High School (math 44% / reading 71%, grade C, #67 of 399 statewide, top 17%, 1,079 students, 5% FRL) — zoned schools at 4% FRL track the district average.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.2%/yr); 198 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 2,256 units permitted in Mercer County in 2024 (1,303 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Mercer County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 124 days — a 12% lower offer ($375k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $266,122 (37.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 124 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.62% ✗
Cap rate: 3.92%
Cash-on-cash: -8.47%
DSCR: 0.62
GRM: 13.3

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $445,890
List price: $425,990
Delta: -4.46%
Verdict: FAIR
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5104 Mary Ashby Way	0.14mi	2/2.0	1,266 (-0%)	3mo	$375,000	$296	91
62 Woolsey Ct	0.43mi	2/2.0	1,194 (-6%)	5mo	$386,000	$323	66
18 Woolsey Ct	0.50mi	2/2.0	1,194 (-6%)	2mo	$425,000	$356	66
122 Woolsey Ct	0.40mi	2/2.0	1,194 (-6%)	11mo	$380,000	$318	63
18 Woolsey Ct	0.50mi	2/2.0	1,194 (-6%)	8mo	$397,500	$333	60
88 Woolsey Ct	0.41mi	2/2.0	1,194 (-6%)	20mo	$409,000	$343	54
14 Woolsey Ct	0.50mi	2/2.0	1,194 (-6%)	19mo	$370,000	$310	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -34.6%
Equity multiple: -0.09×
Total profit: $-130,387
Equity at exit: $63,516

10-year hold

IRR: -67.3%
Equity multiple: -0.78×
Total profit: $-212,533
Equity at exit: $36,832

Cash invested: $119,277 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 5 active · 3 under contract
Months of supply: 5.0 mo (20%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $420,990 ($344/sqft)
Median days on market: 124 d
This list price: 60% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: +2.4% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 08534

Home prices YoY: -32.9%
Rents YoY: -2.2%
Active inventory: 198
Price-to-rent: 13.3×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $2,661 medium interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$2,234
Tax est. 1.5%: −$532 /mo · $6,390/yr
Insurance: −$177
HOA: −$0
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$559
Net cashflow: $-842

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,726

Max offer price $304,215

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-547	-5% $-694	+0% $-842	+5% $-989	+10% $-1,136
Rent	-10% $-1,052	-5% $-947	+0% $-842	+5% $-736	+10% $-631
Rate	-1.0pp $-627	-0.5pp $-733	base $-842	+0.5pp $-952	+1.0pp $-1,064

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $106,498
Closing costs: $12,780
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Property features AI

Finance

Financial info: Lease not considered
HOA & community: Monthly condo fee of $379HOA fees cover common area maintenance, exterior building maintenance, lawn maintenance, and snow removalHOA amenities include common grounds and a dog parkOne-time other fee of $500

Exterior

Parking: On-street parking
Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
Home design: Condominium ownershipGarden-style building (1–4 floors)Entry level: 1
Construction: Combination construction with vinyl sidingSlab foundationEstimated year builtStructure type: Unit/Flat
Exterior features: Common groundsDog parkAbove-grade other structures

Interior

Kitchen: Built-in microwaveDishwasherDisposalGas oven/rangeRefrigeratorStainless steel appliancesInstant hot water
Bedrooms: Two bedrooms on the main level
Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas)Central air conditioning (natural gas)
Interior features: Level entry to main living areaDoors swing inwardExcellent conditionNo basementUnit/Flat in a garden-style building (1–4 floors)Construction not completed (as listed)Pets allowed (cats and dogs; number limits apply)
Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer in unitWasher and dryer hookups in unitWater heater - tankless

Listing history 50 events

2026-09-24

days on market $425,990 Active 124 DOM
2026-09-23

days on market $425,990 Active 123 DOM
2026-09-22

days on market $425,990 Active 122 DOM
2026-09-21

days on market $425,990 Active 121 DOM
2026-09-20

days on market $425,990 Active 120 DOM
2026-09-18

days on market $425,990 Active 118 DOM
2026-09-17

days on market $425,990 Active 117 DOM
2026-09-16

days on market $425,990 Active 116 DOM
2026-09-15

days on market $425,990 Active 115 DOM
2026-09-14

days on market $425,990 Active 114 DOM
2026-09-13

days on market $425,990 Active 113 DOM
2026-09-12

days on market $425,990 Active 112 DOM
2026-09-11

pricedays on marketlisting id $425,990 Active 111 DOM
2026-09-05

days on market $435,990 Active 26 DOM
2026-09-04

pricedays on market $435,990 Active 25 DOM
2026-09-03

days on market $445,990 Active 24 DOM
2026-08-31

days on market $445,990 Active 21 DOM
2026-08-30

days on market $445,990 Active 20 DOM
2026-08-29

days on market $445,990 Active 19 DOM
2026-08-28

days on market $445,990 Active 18 DOM
2026-08-27

days on market $445,990 Active 17 DOM
2026-08-25

days on market $445,990 Active 15 DOM
2026-08-24

days on market $445,990 Active 14 DOM
2026-08-23

days on market $445,990 Active 13 DOM
2026-08-22

days on market $445,990 Active 12 DOM
2026-08-21

days on market $445,990 Active 11 DOM
2026-08-20

days on market $445,990 Active 10 DOM
2026-08-19

days on market $445,990 Active 9 DOM
2026-08-18

days on market $445,990 Active 8 DOM
2026-08-17

days on market $445,990 Active 7 DOM
2026-08-16

days on market $445,990 Active 6 DOM
2026-08-15

days on market $445,990 Active 5 DOM
2026-08-15

days on market $445,990 Active 4 DOM
2026-08-13

days on market $445,990 Active 3 DOM
2026-08-12

days on market $445,990 Active 2 DOM
2026-08-10

days on marketlisting id $445,990 Active 1 DOM
2026-08-10

days on market $445,990 Active 79 DOM
2026-08-09

days on market $445,990 Active 78 DOM
2026-08-08

days on market $445,990 Active 77 DOM
2026-08-07

days on marketlisting id $445,990 Active 76 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $445,990 Active 31 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $445,990 Active 30 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $445,990 Active 29 DOM
2026-08-03

pricedays on market $445,990 Active 28 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $443,990 Active 25 DOM
2026-07-29

days on market $443,990 Active 23 DOM
2026-07-27

days on market $443,990 Active 21 DOM
2026-07-25

days on market $443,990 Active 19 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $443,990 Active 17 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $443,990 Active 16 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $31,935
− Mortgage interest: −$23,862
− Property taxes: −$6,390
− Insurance: −$2,130
− Repairs & maintenance: −$2,555
− Management: −$2,555
− Depreciation: −$12,392
Taxable loss: −$17,949

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,308
After-tax cash flow: $-5,791/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 16 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This modern single-level condominium is in excellent condition with a good layout and minimal maintenance required. It offers a high-ROI opportunity for investors looking to increase its value through minor updates.

Value-add opportunities

Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
Both Updating the flooring in the bedrooms — Hardwood floors in living areas are already in good condition, but carpet in bedrooms could be replaced with hardwood or tile for a more modern look ↑
Both Adding smart home features to the kitchen and bathrooms — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more convenient and energy-efficient ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 51/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Bear Tavern Elementary School F NJ #422/1,303 Nat'l #17,861/41,679 Middle Timberlane Middle School B- NJ #68/431 Nat'l #2,564/14,009 High Hopewell Valley Central High School C NJ #67/399 Nat'l #4,023/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Hopewell Valley Regional School District
NCES district ID: 3407530
Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -25.00%
Reading proficiency: 66% ▼ -10.00%
Median HH income: $126,131
Composite: 52.03/100
National rank: #1636
State rank: #72 of 472 in NJ

B Composite livability gradescore 79/100

Livability — Pennington

Score: 79/100
State rank: #84
US rank: #2077

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place: Pennington, NJ
County: Mercer County · 381,395 people
Metro: Trenton-Princeton, NJ
Population (ZIP): 13,272
Household income: $175,573
Rent vs Own: 11.8% rent · 88.2% own
Severe rent burden: 7% of renters

Population outlook (Mercer County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 381,395 people
By 2030: 384,640 · +0.9%
By 2040: 391,431 · +2.6%
By 2050: 397,845 · +4.3%
By 2075: 417,281 · +9.4%
By 2100: 420,327 · +10.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
Race & ethnicity: White 74% Asian 18% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 1%
Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Italian 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
Foreign-born: 17% · China, Canada, South Korea
Languages at home: 80% English-only · Other Indo-European 6% Chinese 5% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Mercer

2024 margin: Solid D (+33.9) · D 65.9% · R 32.0% · Other 2.1%
2008→2024 swing: -2.2pp toward R · 2008: 36.1pp · 2024: 33.9pp
All cycles: 2024: D+33.9 2020: D+40.0 2016: D+36.2 2012: D+36.8 2008: D+36.1

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -115.16%
Current HPI: 234.5759
Rent YoY: ▼ -2.25%
Metro: Trenton-Princeton, NJ
State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Consumer Goods	3	$31B
#281 Kenvue Skillman $15.4B #289 Campbell Soup Camden $9.6B #320 Church & Dwight Ewing $6.1B
Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
#48 Johnson & Johnson New Brunswick $88.8B #65 Merck Rahway $64.2B
Technology	2	$21B
#216 Automatic Data Processing Roseland $19.8B #442 Commvault Systems Tinton Falls $0.9B
Insurance	2	$20B
#411 Arch Capital Group Pembroke $15.2B #459 Selective Insurance Group Branchville $4.9B
Healthcare	2	$19B
#310 Quest Diagnostics Secaucus $9.8B #400 Zoetis Parsippany $9.1B
Financial Services	1	$70B
#62 Prudential Financial Newark $70.4B

Price history

+4.9% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

2026-08-10 Listed $445,990 BRIGHT MLS
2026-08-06 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
2026-08-01 Price Changed $445,990 BRIGHT MLS
2026-08-01 Price Changed $445,990 Zillow
2026-07-06 Listed $443,990 BRIGHT MLS
2026-07-02 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
2026-06-02 Price Changed $443,990 Zillow
2026-06-02 Listed $443,990 BRIGHT MLS
2026-05-23 Listed $424,990 Zillow

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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