Is this property in Pennington, NJ a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it F with a 3.5% cap rate and $-957/mo modeled cash flow at a $414,940 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate?

The modeled cap rate is 3.5% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $2,898/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

F Composite 32.34

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +10.2/15.0
Cash flow +5.1/30.0
Schools +5.1/10.0
Livability +4.0/5.0
Condition / age +4.0/5.0
1% rule +2.0/10.0
Rent growth +1.9/5.0
DSCR +0.0/10.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$414,940

None · Pennington, NJ 08534

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,267 sqft · Townhouse · 27 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $327/sqft · 6% below area Est $442k · 6% under $379/mo HOA · 13% of rent

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

This new single-level condominium boasts a modern and low maintenance layout. An open-concept floorplan combines the kitchen, living and dining areas to maximize interior space, with sliding doors leading to a deck for outdoor entertaining. A secondary bedroom is located off the foyer, and the luxurious owner's suite is tucked away at the back of the home, complete with a full-sized bathroom and walk-in closet.

Key facts

Quartz countertops
Private balcony
Community garden

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $415k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-957 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $276k (33.4% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $290k (30.2% below list).
Recommended offer: $276k (33.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
Cap rate 3.5% vs local median 2.2% in Pennington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

Location reads 79/100 on livability (#84 in NJ, #2,077 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F.
Hopewell Valley Regional School District (suburban): math 39% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #72 of 472 in NJ (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 2% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
Zoned schools: Bear Tavern Elementary School (math 27% / reading 57%, grade F, #422 of 1,303 statewide, top 35%, 459 students, 3% FRL); Timberlane Middle School (math 40% / reading 69%, grade B-, #68 of 431 statewide, top 16%, 780 students, 3% FRL); Hopewell Valley Central High School (math 44% / reading 71%, grade C, #67 of 399 statewide, top 17%, 1,079 students, 5% FRL) — zoned schools at 4% FRL track the district average.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.2%/yr); 213 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 2,256 units permitted in Mercer County in 2024 (1,303 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Mercer County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($409k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
5 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $276,403 (33.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.70% ✗
Cap rate: 3.52%
Cash-on-cash: -9.89%
DSCR: 0.56
GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $441,797
List price: $414,940
Delta: -6.08%
Verdict: FAIR
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5104 Mary Ashby Way	0.14mi	2/2.0	1,266 (-0%)	4mo	$375,000	$296	90
62 Woolsey Ct	0.43mi	2/2.0	1,194 (-6%)	7mo	$386,000	$323	65
18 Woolsey Ct	0.50mi	2/2.0	1,194 (-6%)	4mo	$425,000	$356	64
122 Woolsey Ct	0.40mi	2/2.0	1,194 (-6%)	12mo	$380,000	$318	62
18 Woolsey Ct	0.50mi	2/2.0	1,194 (-6%)	10mo	$397,500	$333	59
88 Woolsey Ct	0.41mi	2/2.0	1,194 (-6%)	22mo	$409,000	$343	53
14 Woolsey Ct	0.50mi	2/2.0	1,194 (-6%)	21mo	$370,000	$310	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -37.9%
Equity multiple: -0.17×
Total profit: $-136,431
Equity at exit: $61,869

10-year hold

IRR: -83.4%
Equity multiple: -0.97×
Total profit: $-229,013
Equity at exit: $35,876

Cash invested: $116,183 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 7 active · 3 under contract
Months of supply: 14.0 mo (7%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $409,990 ($335/sqft)
Median days on market: 152 d
This list price: 57% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: +4.0% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 08534

Home prices YoY: -32.9%
Rents YoY: -2.2%
Active inventory: 213
Price-to-rent: 11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $2,898 medium interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$2,176
Tax est. 1.5%: −$519 /mo · $6,224/yr
Insurance: −$173
HOA: −$379
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$609
Net cashflow: $-957

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,110

Max offer price $276,403

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-671	-5% $-814	+0% $-957	+5% $-1,101	+10% $-1,244
Rent	-10% $-1,186	-5% $-1,072	+0% $-957	+5% $-843	+10% $-728
Rate	-1.0pp $-748	-0.5pp $-852	base $-957	+0.5pp $-1,065	+1.0pp $-1,174

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $103,735
Closing costs: $12,448
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
231 S Main St Pennington, NJ	3.0	2.5	1872	$3,600	$1.92	2d	1	0.53mi

Property features AI

Finance

HOA & community: Monthly HOA fee of $379HOA covers common area and exterior building maintenance, lawn maintenance, and snow removalCommunity amenities include common grounds and a dog parkOne-time fee of $500

Exterior

Parking: On-street parking
Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
Home design: Unit/flatEntry on the first floor
Construction: Construction not completedCombination and vinyl siding constructionSlab foundation
Exterior features: Irrigation water rightsLevel main-level entry

Interior

Kitchen: Built-in microwave, dishwasher, disposal, gas range, refrigerator, and stainless steel appliances
Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the main level
Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms, both on the main level
Heating & cooling: Forced-air heating and central air conditioning, both powered by natural gas
Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer in the unitTankless water heater

Listing history 50 events

2026-11-08

days on market $414,940 Active 27 DOM
2026-11-07

days on market $414,940 Active 26 DOM
2026-11-06

days on market $414,940 Active 25 DOM
2026-11-05

days on market $414,940 Active 24 DOM
2026-11-04

pricedays on market $414,940 Active 23 DOM
2026-11-02

days on market $424,940 Active 21 DOM
2026-11-01

days on market $424,940 Active 20 DOM
2026-10-31

days on market $424,940 Active 19 DOM
2026-10-30

days on market $424,940 Active 18 DOM
2026-10-29

days on market $424,940 Active 17 DOM
2026-10-28

days on market $424,940 Active 16 DOM
2026-10-27

days on market $424,940 Active 15 DOM
2026-10-26

days on market $424,940 Active 14 DOM
2026-10-25

days on market $424,940 Active 13 DOM
2026-10-24

days on market $424,940 Active 12 DOM
2026-10-23

days on market $424,940 Active 11 DOM
2026-10-22

days on market $424,940 Active 10 DOM
2026-10-21

days on market $424,940 Active 9 DOM
2026-10-21

days on marketlisting id $424,940 Active 8 DOM
2026-10-20

days on market $424,940 Active 150 DOM
2026-10-19

days on market $424,940 Active 149 DOM
2026-10-18

days on market $424,940 Active 148 DOM
2026-10-17

days on market $424,940 Active 147 DOM
2026-10-16

days on market $424,940 Active 146 DOM
2026-10-15

days on market $424,940 Active 145 DOM
2026-10-14

days on market $424,940 Active 144 DOM
2026-10-13

days on market $424,940 Active 143 DOM
2026-10-12

days on market $424,940 Active 142 DOM
2026-10-11

days on market $424,940 Active 141 DOM
2026-10-10

days on market $424,940 Active 140 DOM
2026-10-09

days on market $424,940 Active 139 DOM
2026-10-08

days on market $424,940 Active 138 DOM
2026-10-07

pricedays on market $424,940 Active 137 DOM
2026-10-06

days on market $425,990 Active 136 DOM

Show marketing remark (414 chars)

This new single-level condominium boasts a modern and low maintenance layout. An open-concept floorplan combines the kitchen, living and dining areas to maximize interior space, with sliding doors leading to a deck for outdoor entertaining. A secondary bedroom is located off the foyer, and the luxurious owner's suite is tucked away at the back of the home, complete with a full-sized bathroom and walk-in closet.
2026-10-05

days on market $425,990 Active 135 DOM
2026-10-04

days on market $425,990 Active 134 DOM
2026-10-03

days on market $425,990 Active 133 DOM
2026-10-02

days on market $425,990 Active 132 DOM
2026-10-01

days on market $425,990 Active 131 DOM
2026-09-30

days on market $425,990 Active 130 DOM
2026-09-29

days on market $425,990 Active 129 DOM
2026-09-28

days on market $425,990 Active 128 DOM
2026-09-27

days on market $425,990 Active 127 DOM
2026-09-26

days on market $425,990 Active 126 DOM
2026-09-25

days on market $425,990 Active 125 DOM
2026-09-24

days on market $425,990 Active 124 DOM
2026-09-23

days on market $425,990 Active 123 DOM
2026-09-22

days on market $425,990 Active 122 DOM
2026-09-21

days on market $425,990 Active 121 DOM
2026-09-20

days on market $425,990 Active 120 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $34,772
− Mortgage interest: −$23,243
− Property taxes: −$6,224
− Insurance: −$2,075
− Repairs & maintenance: −$2,782
− Management: −$2,782
− HOA: −$4,548
− Depreciation: −$12,071
Taxable loss: −$18,952

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,549
After-tax cash flow: $-6,940/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 16 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This modern single-level condominium is in excellent condition with a good layout and minimal maintenance required. It offers a high-ROI opportunity for investors looking to increase its value through minor updates.

Value-add opportunities

Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
Both Updating the flooring in the bedrooms — Hardwood floors in living areas are already in good condition, but carpet in bedrooms could be replaced with hardwood or tile for a more modern look ↑
Both Adding smart home features to the kitchen and bathrooms — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more convenient and energy-efficient ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 51/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Bear Tavern Elementary School F NJ #422/1,303 Nat'l #17,861/41,679 Middle Timberlane Middle School B- NJ #68/431 Nat'l #2,564/14,009 High Hopewell Valley Central High School C NJ #67/399 Nat'l #4,023/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Hopewell Valley Regional School District
NCES district ID: 3407530
Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -25.00%
Reading proficiency: 66% ▼ -10.00%
Median HH income: $126,131
Composite: 52.03/100
National rank: #1636
State rank: #72 of 472 in NJ

B Composite livability gradescore 79/100

Livability — Pennington

Score: 79/100
State rank: #84
US rank: #2077

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place: Pennington, NJ
County: Mercer County · 381,395 people
City population: 13,272
Metro: Trenton-Princeton, NJ
Population (ZIP): 13,272
Household income: $175,573
Rent vs Own: 11.8% rent · 88.2% own
Severe rent burden: 7% of renters

Population outlook (Mercer County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 381,395 people
By 2030: 384,640 · +0.9%
By 2040: 391,431 · +2.6%
By 2050: 397,845 · +4.3%
By 2075: 417,281 · +9.4%
By 2100: 420,327 · +10.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
Race & ethnicity: White 74% Asian 18% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 1%
Languages at home: 80% English-only · Other Indo-European 6% Chinese 5% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Mercer

2024 margin: Solid D (+33.9) · D 65.9% · R 32.0% · Other 2.1%
2008→2024 swing: -2.2pp toward R · 2008: 36.1pp · 2024: 33.9pp
All cycles: 2024: D+33.9 2020: D+40.0 2016: D+36.2 2012: D+36.8 2008: D+36.1

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -115.16%
Current HPI: 234.5759
Rent YoY: ▼ -2.25%
Metro: Trenton-Princeton, NJ
State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Consumer Goods	3	$31B
#281 Kenvue Skillman $15.4B #289 Campbell Soup Camden $9.6B #320 Church & Dwight Ewing $6.1B
Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
#48 Johnson & Johnson New Brunswick $88.8B #65 Merck Rahway $64.2B
Technology	2	$21B
#216 Automatic Data Processing Roseland $19.8B #442 Commvault Systems Tinton Falls $0.9B
Insurance	2	$20B
#411 Arch Capital Group Pembroke $15.2B #459 Selective Insurance Group Branchville $4.9B
Healthcare	2	$19B
#310 Quest Diagnostics Secaucus $9.8B #400 Zoetis Parsippany $9.1B
Financial Services	1	$70B
#62 Prudential Financial Newark $70.4B

Price history

-0.0% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

2026-10-12 Listed $424,940 BRIGHT MLS
2026-10-06 Price Changed $424,940 Zillow
2026-09-10 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
2026-09-08 Price Changed $425,990 Zillow
2026-09-08 Price Changed $425,990 BRIGHT MLS
2026-09-04 Price Changed $435,990 BRIGHT MLS
2026-09-03 Price Changed $435,990 Zillow
2026-08-10 Listed $445,990 BRIGHT MLS
2026-08-06 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
2026-08-01 Price Changed $445,990 BRIGHT MLS
2026-08-01 Price Changed $445,990 Zillow
2026-07-06 Listed $443,990 BRIGHT MLS
2026-07-02 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
2026-06-02 Price Changed $443,990 Zillow
2026-06-02 Listed $443,990 BRIGHT MLS
2026-05-23 Listed $424,990 Zillow

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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