2631 W Madison St · Springfield, MO 65802

$114,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 648 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 66 Days on market

Built 1943 7,841 sqft lot $176/sqft · 8% below area Est $124k · 8% under ↓ 24% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.9/30.0
• ARV discount +11.1/15.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this beautifully updated 3-bedroom, 1-bath home that makes the most of its 648 sq ft! Enjoy stylish upgrades throughout and a location that can't be beat--just minutes from the new Super Target, plus great shopping and restaurants nearby.

Key facts

• 7,841 sq ft lot
• Built 1943
• Listed 66 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $114k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $53 ($640/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $94k (17.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $94k (17.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 4.6% in Springfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#57 in MO, #4,121 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, employment F.
• Springfield R-XII (urban): math 32% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #174 of 324 in MO (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.8%/yr); 512 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 57% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,302 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $788 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Greene County population projected at +25% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($107k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1943 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $93,553 (17.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1943 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.01%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $123,903
• List price: $114,000
• Delta: -7.99%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2411 W Madison St	0.26mi	2/1.0	711 (+10%)	13mo	$123,000	$173	61
207 N Forest Ave	0.63mi	2/1.0	624 (-4%)	6mo	$125,000	$200	59
229 N Scenic Ave	0.61mi	2/1.0	664 (+2%)	12mo	$87,500	$132	58
2521 W Harrison St	0.25mi	1/1.0 (-1)	559 (-14%)	5mo	$79,900	$143	56
721 S Warren Ave	0.36mi	2/1.0	728 (+12%)	23mo	$104,900	$144	43
2015 W Mt Vernon St	0.65mi	1/1.0 (-1)	672 (+4%)	18mo	$60,000	$89	43
2733 W Water St	0.71mi	2/1.0	624 (-4%)	22mo	$95,000	$152	42
3159 W Madison St	0.69mi	2/1.0	576 (-11%)	23mo	$59,900	$104	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.82% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-13,380
• Equity at exit: $16,998

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.00×
• Total profit: $-45
• Equity at exit: $9,857

Cash invested: $31,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65802

• Home prices YoY: -31.9%
• Rents YoY: 4.8%
• Active inventory: 512
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $936 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$598
• Tax from tax record: −$40 /mo · $485/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$196
• Net cashflow: $53

Break-even live

Break-even rent $868

Max offer price $114,000

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,500
• Closing costs: $3,420
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
520 S Scenic Ave Unit 101-A Springfield, MO	1.0	1.0	550	$650	$1.18	43d	1	0.36mi
2711 W Olive St Springfield, MO	1.0	1.0	621	$750	$1.21	23d	1	0.64mi
1911 W Elm St Springfield, MO	2.0	1.0	580	$875	$1.51	43d	1	0.79mi
1740 W Olive St Springfield, MO	3.0	1.0	736	$1,195	$1.62	13d	1	1.00mi
522 N Park Ave Springfield, MO	1.0	1.0	608	$950	$1.56	43d	1	1.02mi
1634 S Marion Ave Springfield, MO	3.0	1.0–2.0	845	$1,404	$1.66	13d	23	1.24mi
2712 W Nichols St Springfield, MO	2.0	1.0	619	$795	$1.28	43d	1	1.25mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $114,000 Active 66 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $114,000 Active 65 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $114,000 Active 64 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $114,000 Active 63 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $114,000 Active 61 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $114,000 Active 58 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $114,000 Active 57 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $114,000 Active 56 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $114,000 Active 55 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $114,000 Active 51 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $114,000 Active 50 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $114,000 Active 49 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $114,000 Active 48 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $114,000 Active 47 DOM
15. 2026-04-13
    listed $114,000 Active 249-char remark

    Show marketing remark (249 chars)

    Welcome to this beautifully updated 3-bedroom, 1-bath home that makes the most of its 648 sq ft! Enjoy stylish upgrades throughout and a location that can't be beat--just minutes from the new Super Target, plus great shopping and restaurants nearby.

16. 2024-05-30
    price $122,500
17. 2022-04-16
    listed $149,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $485 · $40/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,106 · $92/mo
• Expected delta: +$621/yr (+$52/mo · 128.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,226
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,386
• − Property taxes: −$485
• − Insurance: −$570
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$898
• − Management: −$898
• − Depreciation: −$3,316
• Taxable loss: −$1,327
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$318
• After-tax cash flow: $959/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Springfield R-XII
• NCES district ID: 2928860
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $37,886
• Composite: 32.45/100
• National rank: #5717
• State rank: #174 of 324 in MO

Livability — Springfield

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #57
• US rank: #4121

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Springfield, MO
• County: Greene County · 244,327 people
• City population: 223,044
• Metro: Springfield, MO
• Population (ZIP): 46,739
• Household income: $55,019
• Rent vs Own: 41.4% rent · 58.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1818.0

Population outlook (Greene County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 319,054 people
• By 2030: 335,135 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 366,186 · +14.8%
• By 2050: 397,431 · +24.6%
• By 2075: 477,035 · +49.5%
• By 2100: 520,828 · +63.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% Vietnamese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Greene

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.8) · D 38.9% · R 59.7% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.0pp toward R · 2008: -15.8pp · 2024: -20.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.8 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+27.4 2012: R+24.4 2008: R+15.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -99.72%
• Current HPI: 212.9826
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.82%
• Metro: Springfield, MO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-23.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Listed $114,000 SOMO
• 2024-05-30 Price Changed $122,500 SOMO
• 2022-04-16 Listed $149,900 SOMO

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $485 · +47.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.