209 W Miracle Strip Pkwy Unit E203 · Mary Esther, FL 32569

$151,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 965 sqft · Condo · 101 Days on market

Built 1974 Good condition $157/sqft · 11% below area Est $171k · 11% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.6/15.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Cash flow +1.9/30.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to easy coastal living at The Cedars in Mary Esther! This beautifully maintained 2-bedroom, fully furnished condo offers a true turnkey opportunity ideal for a primary residence, second home, or investment property near Hurlburt Field, area beaches, shopping, and dining. Fully furnished and truly turnkey — move in, rent, or enjoy immediately from day one. Step inside to a bright and inviting layout featuring comfortable living spaces and thoughtfully furnished interiors designed for immediate move-in convenience... Property is currently operating as a short-term rental and is being sold fully furnished, offering a turnkey opportunity for buyers seeking personal use or investment potential. Buyers should verify rental guidelines and HOA requirements.

Key facts

• Short-term rental
• Fully furnished
• Turnkey opportunity

Tags

• FULLY FURNISHED
• TURNKEY OPPORTUNITY
• SHORT-TERM RENTAL
• COMFORTABLE LIVING SPACES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $152k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-567 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $152k).
• Recommended offer: $138k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 1.8% vs local median 4.8% in Mary Esther — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 89/100 on livability (#2 in FL, #137 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, cost of living A+.
• Okaloosa (other): math 60% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #12 of 73 in FL (top 16%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.5%/yr); 175 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,268 units permitted in Okaloosa County in 2024 (175 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Okaloosa County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 101 days — a 9% lower offer ($138k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 51% of rent.

Recommended offer $137,865 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 101 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 1.80%
• Cash-on-cash: -16.03%
• DSCR: 0.29
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $170,737
• List price: $151,500
• Delta: -11.27%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -55.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.53×
• Total profit: $-65,063
• Equity at exit: $22,589

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -1.83×
• Total profit: $-120,097
• Equity at exit: $13,099

Cash invested: $42,420 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32569

• Home prices YoY: -26.5%
• Rents YoY: -0.5%
• Active inventory: 175
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,697 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$794
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$189 /mo · $2,272/yr
• Insurance: −$63
• HOA est. from 18 same-building comps: −$860
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$356
• Net cashflow: $-567

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,414

Max offer price $69,493

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,875
• Closing costs: $4,545
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
209 W Miracle Strip Pkwy Unit A203 Mary Esther, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,350	$1.50	21d	1	0.01mi
280 Anderson Dr Mary Esther, FL	3.0	1.0	1066	$1,695	$1.59	43d	1	0.29mi
200 Page Bacon Rd Mary Esther, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1030	$2,208	$2.14	13d	18	0.81mi
413 Sea Rover Ln NW Unit F Fort Walton Beach, FL	2.0	1.5	1035	$1,600	$1.55	21d	1	1.48mi
413 Sea Rover Ln NW Unit F Fort Walton Beach, FL	2.0	1.5	1035	$1,600	$1.55	13d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $151,500 Active 101 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $151,500 Active 100 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $151,500 Active 99 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $151,500 Active 98 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $151,500 Active 96 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $151,500 Active 95 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $151,500 Active 93 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $151,500 Active 92 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $151,500 Active 91 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $151,500 Active 90 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $151,500 Active 87 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $151,500 Active 85 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $151,500 Active 84 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $151,500 Active 83 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $151,500 Active 82 DOM
16. 2026-03-09
    listed $151,500 Active 786-char remark

    Show marketing remark (786 chars)

    Welcome to easy coastal living at The Cedars in Mary Esther! This beautifully maintained 2-bedroom, fully furnished condo offers a true turnkey opportunity ideal for a primary residence, second home, or investment property near Hurlburt Field, area beaches, shopping, and dining. Fully furnished and truly turnkey — move in, rent, or enjoy immediately from day one. Step inside to a bright and inviting layout featuring comfortable living spaces and thoughtfully furnished interiors designed for immediate move-in convenience... Property is currently operating as a short-term rental and is being sold fully furnished, offering a turnkey opportunity for buyers seeking personal use or investment potential. Buyers should verify rental guidelines and HOA requirements.

17. 2025-09-30
    price $199,900
18. 2025-07-14
    listed $214,900 Active
19. 2023-09-20
    soldstatus $155,000 Sold
20. 2023-07-19
    status Pending
21. 2023-07-11
    listed $175,000 Active
22. 2023-05-01
    status Pending
23. 2023-04-29
    historical
24. 2023-03-19
    price $172,000
25. 2023-01-19
    status Active
26. 2023-01-10
    historical
27. 2022-12-13
    price $175,000
28. 2022-12-03
    price $190,000
29. 2022-11-15
    price $200,000
30. 2022-10-27
    listed $230,000 Active
31. 2015-09-18
    soldstatus $75,000
32. 2001-08-06
    soldstatus $46,000
33. 2001-02-15
    listed $48,500
34. 2001-02-13
    listed $48,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,358
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,486
• − Property taxes: −$2,272
• − Insurance: −$758
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,629
• − Management: −$1,629
• − HOA: −$10,320
• − Depreciation: −$4,407
• Taxable loss: −$9,143
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,194
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,607/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained and fully furnished condo is in good condition with no major repairs needed. It offers a turnkey opportunity for a primary residence, second home, or investment property near Hurlburt Field, area beaches, shopping, and dining.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint the exterior siding — Painting the exterior siding will improve the curb appeal and increase the property's value.
• Both Clean the windows — Clean windows will make the property look more inviting and increase its value.
• Both Trim the bushes and trees — Trimming the bushes and trees will improve the landscaping and increase the property's value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint the exterior siding — Painting the exterior siding will improve the curb appeal and increase the property's value. ↑
• Both Clean the windows — Clean windows will make the property look more inviting and increase its value. ↑
• Both Trim the bushes and trees — Trimming the bushes and trees will improve the landscaping and increase the property's value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Okaloosa
• NCES district ID: 1201380
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $55,601
• Composite: 51.62/100
• National rank: #1705
• State rank: #12 of 73 in FL

Livability — Mary Esther

• Score: 89/100
• State rank: #2
• US rank: #137

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mary Esther, FL
• County: Okaloosa County · 194,352 people
• City population: 12,063
• Metro: Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL
• Population (ZIP): 12,063
• Household income: $77,718
• Rent vs Own: 29.3% rent · 70.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 416.0

Population outlook (Okaloosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 235,133 people
• By 2030: 253,483 · +7.8%
• By 2040: 289,537 · +23.1%
• By 2050: 322,954 · +37.3%
• By 2075: 399,624 · +70.0%
• By 2100: 425,311 · +80.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Two or more races 12% Black 12% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Other Indo-European 4% Spanish 3% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Okaloosa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.4) · D 28.2% · R 70.7% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.5pp toward D · 2008: -44.9pp · 2024: -42.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.4 2020: R+39.1 2016: R+47.8 2012: R+49.4 2008: R+44.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -97.13%
• Current HPI: 269.266
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.45%
• Metro: Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+212.4% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-09 Listed $151,500 NAMLS
• 2025-09-30 Price Changed $199,900 ECAR
• 2025-07-14 Listed $214,900 ECAR
• 2023-09-20 Sold (MLS) $155,000 NAMLS
• 2023-07-19 Pending — NAMLS
• 2023-07-11 Listed $175,000 NAMLS
• 2023-05-01 Pending — NAMLS
• 2023-04-29 Listing Removed — NAMLS
• 2023-03-19 Price Changed $172,000 NAMLS
• 2023-01-19 Relisted — NAMLS
• 2023-01-10 Listing Removed — NAMLS
• 2022-12-13 Price Changed $175,000 NAMLS
• 2022-12-03 Price Changed $190,000 NAMLS
• 2022-11-15 Price Changed $200,000 NAMLS
• 2022-10-27 Listed $230,000 NAMLS
• 2015-09-18 Sold (MLS) $75,000 ECAR
• 2001-08-06 Sold (MLS) $46,000 ECAR
• 2001-02-15 Listed $48,500 ECAR
• 2001-02-13 Listed $48,500 ECAR