4857 N Ranger Rd · Prescott Valley, AZ 86314

$165,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 928 sqft · Manufactured public records · 92 Days on market

Built 1989 8,276 sqft lot $178/sqft · 36% below area Est $258k · 36% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This is great starter home or investment. It is nice & clean inside with new carpet, furnace and evaporative cooler. The exterior needs to be painted and some skirting replaced to make this home sparkle! There are wonderful front and back covered porches. The mature trees will bloom soon. Beautiful evergreen bushes along the the back of the property with a bit of mountain views. The backyard is partially fenced with so much potential. Repairs to the living room include new bead-board wainscoting & a section of exterior siding. Near-by to schools, parks, shopping and all Prescott Valley has to offer. Cash or possible Conventional Loan. Sale is expressly contingent upon the approval of the Guardianship Court after service on all interested persons, estimated to be at least 60 days. Seller will not provide any repairs or foundation tie-downs but they could be done during escrow to be paid at closing. Property won't qualify for a FHA loan, but possibly a FHA203k loan. Previous inspection reports available.

Key facts

• Evergreen bushes
• New furnace
• New carpet

Tags

• NEW CARPET
• NEW FURNACE
• NEW EVAPORATIVE COOLER
• FRONT AND BACK COVERED PORCHES
• MATURE TREES
• EVERGREEN BUSHES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $300 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $162k (1.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $150k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 3.2% in Prescott Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#126 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Humboldt Unified District (4469) (suburban): math 31% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #94 of 249 in AZ (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 447 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,062 units permitted in Yavapai County in 2024 (98 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Yavapai County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 92 days — a 9% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $34k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $49k; list at $165k implies a 237% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,150 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 92 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.78%
• DSCR: 1.35
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $257,673
• List price: $165,000
• Delta: -35.97%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8801 E Totem Cir	0.25mi	2/3.0	891 (-4%)	13mo	$40,000	$45	67
8614 E Hopi Dr	0.38mi	2/2.0	1,008 (+9%)	5mo	$230,000	$228	64
8835 Blackfoot Cir	0.27mi	3/2.0 (+1)	960 (+3%)	18mo	$255,000	$266	61
4501 N Parent Rd	0.40mi	3/2.0 (+1)	897 (-3%)	16mo	$250,000	$279	57
4886 N Meixner Rd	0.45mi	2/2.0	960 (+3%)	20mo	$315,000	$328	57
8875 E Cheryl Dr	0.10mi	2/1.5	799 (-14%)	18mo	$185,000	$232	55
5200 N Ranger Rd	0.33mi	2/2.0	869 (-6%)	23mo	$197,000	$227	55
4860 Hacienda Ln	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,057 (+14%)	24mo	$285,000	$270	53
4361 N Mobile Cir E	0.61mi	3/1.0 (+1)	897 (-3%)	9mo	$106,500	$119	50
8603 E Tracy Dr	0.47mi	2/2.0	1,043 (+12%)	20mo	$175,000	$168	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.97% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-10,980
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $1,917
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 86314

• Home prices YoY: -32.3%
• Rents YoY: 1.0%
• Active inventory: 447
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,621 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$47 /mo · $569/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$340
• Net cashflow: $300

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,242

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 77%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4621 N Ocotillo Dr Prescott Valley, AZ	2.0	2.0	992	$1,875	$1.89	13d	1	0.35mi
4500 N Carla Vista Dr Prescott Valley, AZ	3.0	1.0	1056	$1,550	$1.47	43d	1	0.36mi
4340 N Romero Cir E Prescott Valley, AZ	2.0	2.0	785	$1,300	$1.66	21d	1	0.58mi
4561 N Preston Dr Apt 3 Prescott Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	624	$1,700	$2.72	43d	1	0.62mi
4561 N Preston Dr Prescott Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	624	$1,650	$2.64	43d	1	0.62mi
4713 N Harlequin Dr Prescott Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	911	$1,375	$1.51	21d	1	0.68mi
4786 N Jean Ct Apt 01 Prescott Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	758	$1,150	$1.52	21d	1	0.77mi
8135 E Ashley Dr Apt A Prescott Valley, AZ	2.0	2.0	990	$1,500	$1.52	43d	1	0.81mi
4400 N Phillip Dr Unit B Prescott Valley, AZ	2.0	2.0	999	$1,550	$1.55	43d	1	0.83mi
9800 E Lakeshore Dr Unit A Prescott Valley, AZ	2.0	2.0	1116	$1,595	$1.43	13d	1	0.86mi
9665 E Magma Dr Unit A Prescott Valley, AZ	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,700	$1.70	21d	1	1.00mi
4357 N Miner Rd Prescott Valley, AZ	2.0	2.0	960	$1,600	$1.67	43d	1	1.03mi
7939 Spouse Dr Apt 1 Prescott Valley, AZ	2.0	1.5	1100	$1,500	$1.36	21d	1	1.05mi
3866 E Teri Ct Unit A Prescott Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1050	$1,675	$1.60	13d	1	1.11mi
8113 E Long Mesa Dr Unit A Prescott Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	616	$1,500	$2.44	21d	1	1.15mi
8396 E Stevens Dr Unit A Prescott Valley, AZ	2.0	2.0	950	$2,000	$2.11	43d	1	1.16mi
8396 E Stevens Dr Unit B Prescott Valley, AZ	2.0	2.0	978	$2,000	$2.04	43d	1	1.16mi
7781 Spouse Dr Unit A Prescott Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	912	$1,350	$1.48	21d	1	1.20mi
7749 E Spouse Dr Prescott Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	860	$1,550	$1.80	21d	1	1.24mi
8132 E Lakeshore Dr Unit B Prescott Valley, AZ	2.0	2.0	890	$1,400	$1.57	43d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-03
   status $165,000 Pending 92 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $165,000 Active 92 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $165,000 Active 91 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $165,000 Active 90 DOM
5. 2026-05-30
   days on market $165,000 Active 89 DOM
6. 2026-05-14
   price $165,000 1034-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1034 chars)

   This is great starter home or investment. It is nice & clean inside with new carpet, furnace and evaporative cooler. The exterior needs to be painted and some skirting replaced to make this home sparkle! There are wonderful front and back covered porches. The mature trees will bloom soon. Beautiful evergreen bushes along the the back of the property with a bit of mountain views. The backyard is partially fenced with so much potential. Repairs to the living room include new bead-board wainscoting & a section of exterior siding. Near-by to schools, parks, shopping and all Prescott Valley has to offer. Cash or possible Conventional Loan. Sale is expressly contingent upon the approval of the Guardianship Court after service on all interested persons, estimated to be at least 60 days. Seller will not provide any repairs or foundation tie-downs but they could be done during escrow to be paid at closing. Property won't qualify for a FHA loan, but possibly a FHA203k loan. Previous inspection reports available.

7. 2026-05-05
   status Active 1034-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1034 chars)

   This is great starter home or investment. It is nice & clean inside with new carpet, furnace and evaporative cooler. The exterior needs to be painted and some skirting replaced to make this home sparkle! There are wonderful front and back covered porches. The mature trees will bloom soon. Beautiful evergreen bushes along the the back of the property with a bit of mountain views. The backyard is partially fenced with so much potential. Repairs to the living room include new bead-board wainscoting & a section of exterior siding. Near-by to schools, parks, shopping and all Prescott Valley has to offer. Cash or possible Conventional Loan. Sale is expressly contingent upon the approval of the Guardianship Court after service on all interested persons, estimated to be at least 60 days. Seller will not provide any repairs or foundation tie-downs but they could be done during escrow to be paid at closing. Property won't qualify for a FHA loan, but possibly a FHA203k loan. Previous inspection reports available.

8. 2026-04-23
   historical Active Under Contract 1034-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1034 chars)

   This is great starter home or investment. It is nice & clean inside with new carpet, furnace and evaporative cooler. The exterior needs to be painted and some skirting replaced to make this home sparkle! There are wonderful front and back covered porches. The mature trees will bloom soon. Beautiful evergreen bushes along the the back of the property with a bit of mountain views. The backyard is partially fenced with so much potential. Repairs to the living room include new bead-board wainscoting & a section of exterior siding. Near-by to schools, parks, shopping and all Prescott Valley has to offer. Cash or possible Conventional Loan. Sale is expressly contingent upon the approval of the Guardianship Court after service on all interested persons, estimated to be at least 60 days. Seller will not provide any repairs or foundation tie-downs but they could be done during escrow to be paid at closing. Property won't qualify for a FHA loan, but possibly a FHA203k loan. Previous inspection reports available.

9. 2026-03-23
   price $187,000 1034-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1034 chars)

   This is great starter home or investment. It is nice & clean inside with new carpet, furnace and evaporative cooler. The exterior needs to be painted and some skirting replaced to make this home sparkle! There are wonderful front and back covered porches. The mature trees will bloom soon. Beautiful evergreen bushes along the the back of the property with a bit of mountain views. The backyard is partially fenced with so much potential. Repairs to the living room include new bead-board wainscoting & a section of exterior siding. Near-by to schools, parks, shopping and all Prescott Valley has to offer. Cash or possible Conventional Loan. Sale is expressly contingent upon the approval of the Guardianship Court after service on all interested persons, estimated to be at least 60 days. Seller will not provide any repairs or foundation tie-downs but they could be done during escrow to be paid at closing. Property won't qualify for a FHA loan, but possibly a FHA203k loan. Previous inspection reports available.

10. 2026-03-02
    listed $199,000 Active 1034-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1034 chars)

    This is great starter home or investment. It is nice & clean inside with new carpet, furnace and evaporative cooler. The exterior needs to be painted and some skirting replaced to make this home sparkle! There are wonderful front and back covered porches. The mature trees will bloom soon. Beautiful evergreen bushes along the the back of the property with a bit of mountain views. The backyard is partially fenced with so much potential. Repairs to the living room include new bead-board wainscoting & a section of exterior siding. Near-by to schools, parks, shopping and all Prescott Valley has to offer. Cash or possible Conventional Loan. Sale is expressly contingent upon the approval of the Guardianship Court after service on all interested persons, estimated to be at least 60 days. Seller will not provide any repairs or foundation tie-downs but they could be done during escrow to be paid at closing. Property won't qualify for a FHA loan, but possibly a FHA203k loan. Previous inspection reports available.

11. 2025-04-08
    price $195,000
12. 2025-03-19
    price $205,000
13. 2025-03-14
    status Active
14. 2025-03-14
    historical
15. 2025-03-14
    price $199,000
16. 2025-01-29
    status Pending
17. 2025-01-16
    price $215,000
18. 2025-01-03
    price $225,000
19. 2024-12-01
    listed $233,000 Active
20. 1993-01-29
    soldstatus $48,900
21. 1991-08-27
    soldstatus $42,500
22. 1989-09-11
    soldstatus $7,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $569 · $47/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,089 · $91/mo
• Expected delta: +$520/yr (+$43/mo · 91.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 5 d/yr ≥95°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,457
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$569
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,557
• − Management: −$1,557
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable income: $908
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$218
• After-tax cash flow: $3,376/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Humboldt Unified District (4469)
• NCES district ID: 0403870
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $45,326
• Composite: 29.06/100
• National rank: #6605
• State rank: #94 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Prescott Valley

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #126
• US rank: #16160

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Prescott Valley, AZ
• County: Yavapai County · 190,406 people
• City population: 63,155
• Metro: Prescott Valley-Prescott, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 40,317
• Household income: $69,208
• Rent vs Own: 32.9% rent · 67.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1236.0

Population outlook (Yavapai County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 241,389 people
• By 2030: 249,523 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 259,966 · +7.7%
• By 2050: 264,736 · +9.7%
• By 2075: 269,334 · +11.6%
• By 2100: 256,505 · +6.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 15% Asian 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15%

Political lean MEDSL · Yavapai

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.9) · D 32.6% · R 66.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.5pp toward R · 2008: -24.4pp · 2024: -33.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.9 2020: R+29.3 2016: R+31.4 2012: R+30.7 2008: R+24.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -176.27%
• Current HPI: 370.04
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.97%
• Metro: Prescott Valley-Prescott, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+2257.1% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $165,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-05 Relisted — PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-23 Contingent — PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $187,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-02 Listed $199,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-08 Price Changed $195,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-19 Price Changed $205,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-14 Relisted — PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-14 Price Changed $199,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-14 Listing Removed — PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-29 Pending — PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-16 Price Changed $215,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-03 Price Changed $225,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-01 Listed $233,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1993-01-29 Sold (Public Records) $48,900 Public Records
• 1991-08-27 Sold (Public Records) $42,500 Public Records
• 1989-09-11 Sold (Public Records) $7,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $569 · +1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.