34 Overlook Rd · Grahamsville, NY 12788

$339,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 130 Days on market

Built 1950 0.37 ac lot $282/sqft · 21% above area Est $487k · 30% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +5.1/30.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Lake View Hideaway at 34 Overlook Road—a proven, income-producing short-term rental perched above Lake Paradise in the heart of the Catskills. This renovated, fully furnished (optional) property is already operating as a successful year-round Airbnb, making it an exceptional turnkey opportunity for investors seeking immediate cash flow with upside. Set back from the road and surrounded by trees, the home offers the privacy and tranquil setting today’s short-term rental guests crave. Inside, rustic-chic design elements—wide-plank barnwood floors, sliding barn doors, and a wood-burning fireplace—create a warm, farmhouse aesthetic that photographs beautifully

Key facts

• Chef's kitchen
• Turnkey opportunity
• 0.37 acre lot

Tags

• TURNKEY OPPORTUNITY
• RUSTIC CHIC DESIGN ELEMENTS
• CHEF'S KITCHEN
• BUTCHER BLOCK COUNTERTOPS
• LAKE AND MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• RECREATION OR GAME ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $339k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-781 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $201k (40.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $170k (49.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $170k (49.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.5% vs local median 1.7% in Grahamsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Tri-Valley Central School District (rural): math 38% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #488 of 590 in NY (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 28 active listings in the ZIP; 739 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $36k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $34k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Sullivan County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$58k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 130 days — a 12% lower offer ($298k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $169,989 (49.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 130 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 50% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
8. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
9. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.50% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.53%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.87%
• DSCR: 0.56
• GRM: 16.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $487,256
• List price: $339,000
• Delta: -30.43%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11 Overlook Rd	0.11mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,180 (-2%)	14mo	$185,000	$157	76
497 Myers Rd	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,248 (+4%)	8mo	$399,000	$320	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.42×
• Total profit: $134,798
• Equity at exit: $305,398

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.59×
• Total profit: $435,841
• Equity at exit: $658,602

Cash invested: $94,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12788

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 28
• Price-to-rent: 16.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,700 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,778
• Tax from tax record: −$205 /mo · $2,455/yr
• Insurance: −$141
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$357
• Net cashflow: $-781

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,688

Max offer price $201,091

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-589	-5% $-685	+0% $-781	+5% $-877	+10% $-973
Rent	-10% $-915	-5% $-848	+0% $-781	+5% $-714	+10% $-646
Rate	-1.0pp $-610	-0.5pp $-694	base $-781	+0.5pp $-869	+1.0pp $-958

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $84,750
• Closing costs: $10,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 42 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $339,000 Active 130 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $339,000 Active 128 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $339,000 Active 127 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $339,000 Active 126 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $339,000 Active 125 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $339,000 Active 123 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $339,000 Active 122 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $339,000 Active 119 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $339,000 Active 118 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $339,000 Active 117 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $339,000 Active 116 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $339,000 Active 113 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $339,000 Active 112 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $339,000 Active 111 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $339,000 Active 110 DOM
16. 2026-04-23
    price $339,000
17. 2026-01-28
    listed $350,000 Active
18. 2025-05-22
    price $350,000
19. 2025-05-22
    listed $350,000 Active
20. 2025-05-22
    historical
21. 2025-03-27
    price $360,000
22. 2025-03-06
    price $369,000
23. 2025-02-11
    price $379,000
24. 2025-01-08
    listed $389,000 Active
25. 2023-10-11
    soldstatus $334,000
26. 2023-09-01
    soldstatus $334,000 Closed
27. 2023-07-21
    status Pending
28. 2023-06-09
    listed $329,000 Active
29. 2023-05-15
    soldstatus $137,500
30. 2022-09-28
    historical
31. 2022-07-05
    price $329,000
32. 2022-06-08
    price $349,000
33. 2022-06-08
    listed $329,000 Active
34. 2019-07-03
    soldstatus $32,500 Sold
35. 2019-06-14
    status Pending
36. 2019-04-30
    price $44,000
37. 2019-03-27
    listed $49,000 Active
38. 2015-06-26
    soldstatus $24,000
39. 2015-06-26
    soldstatus $24,000
40. 2013-08-22
    listed $44,900
41. 2013-08-22
    listed $44,900
42. 1986-08-18
    soldstatus $40,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,455 · $205/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,092 · $341/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,637/yr (+$136/mo · 66.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,399
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,989
• − Property taxes: −$2,455
• − Insurance: −$1,695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,632
• − Management: −$1,632
• − Depreciation: −$9,862
• Taxable loss: −$15,866
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,808
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,560/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tri-Valley Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3628890
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $53,543
• Composite: 36.47/100
• National rank: #4662
• State rank: #488 of 590 in NY

Livability — Grahamsville

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• City population: 1,891
• Population (ZIP): 3,122

Population outlook (Sullivan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,974 people
• By 2030: 65,609 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 58,878 · -14.6%
• By 2050: 52,500 · -23.9%
• By 2075: 39,941 · -42.1%
• By 2100: 28,880 · -58.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 22% Black 16% Two or more races 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 5% Dominican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Scotch-Irish 4% Iranian 4%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 9% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sullivan

• 2024 margin: R (+16.7) · D 41.6% · R 58.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.2pp toward R · 2008: 9.5pp · 2024: -16.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.7 2020: R+9.2 2016: R+13.7 2012: D+10.4 2008: D+9.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.93%
• Current HPI: 472.8635
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+747.5% since first listed

27 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $339,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-28 Listed $350,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-22 Price Changed $350,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-22 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-22 Listed $350,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-27 Price Changed $360,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-06 Price Changed $369,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-11 Price Changed $379,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-08 Listed $389,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-10-11 Sold (Public Records) $334,000 Public Records
• 2023-09-01 Sold (MLS) $334,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-07-21 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-06-09 Listed $329,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-05-15 Sold (Public Records) $137,500 Public Records
• 2022-09-28 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-07-05 Price Changed $329,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-06-08 Price Changed $349,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-06-08 Listed $329,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-07-03 Sold (MLS) $32,500 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-06-14 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-04-30 Price Changed $44,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-03-27 Listed $49,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-06-26 Sold (MLS) $24,000 HGMLS
• 2015-06-26 Sold (MLS) $24,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-08-22 Listed $44,900 HGMLS
• 2013-08-22 Listed $44,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1986-08-18 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,455 · +1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.