14651 Forrer St · Detroit, MI 48227

$80,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,700 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 69 Days on market

Built 1928 9,148 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

INVESTOR SPECIAL! PROPERTY BEING SOLD "AS IS" DON'T MISS OUT! SUBJECT TO APPROVAL OF PROBATE COURT AND BEING SOLD AS A PACKAGE DEAL WITH MLS 20250024205 AND 202500224036.

Key facts

• 9,148 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1928

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $779 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $75k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.0% vs local median 10.2% in Detroit — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#218 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, employment F.
• Detroit Public Schools Community District (urban): math 10% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #499 of 540 in MI (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 90% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.6%/yr); 385 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,639 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (1,216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,764/mo this rent would consume 58% of the median local household income ($37k/yr) (locally 2371% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $553 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wayne County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.6% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1928 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $75,200 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1928 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 41.73%
• DSCR: 2.86
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $194,400
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14841 Forrer St	0.09mi	4/3.5	2,707 (+0%)	7mo	$253,000	$93	86
16067 Ellsworth St	0.36mi	4/2.5	2,650 (-2%)	7mo	$159,900	$60	74
14422 Rutherford St	0.20mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,467 (-9%)	5mo	$162,000	$66	66
14505 Woodmont Ave	0.44mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,635 (-2%)	6mo	$415,000	$157	66
14618 Sussex St	0.37mi	5/3.5 (+1)	2,753 (+2%)	6mo	$298,000	$108	65
14056 Saint Marys St	0.51mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,880 (+7%)	8mo	$192,000	$67	54
14500 Rutland St	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,602 (-4%)	7mo	$280,000	$108	53
15366 Coyle St	0.64mi	4/2.0	2,818 (+4%)	10mo	$130,000	$46	52
14415 Abington Ave	0.58mi	4/2.5	2,964 (+10%)	8mo	$214,000	$72	49
14337 Winthrop St	0.27mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,308 (-14%)	8mo	$135,000	$58	49
15413 Lauder St	0.74mi	4/3.0	2,928 (+8%)	1mo	$205,000	$70	48
13912 Woodmont Ave	0.71mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,517 (-7%)	1mo	$245,000	$97	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.59% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 41.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.85×
• Total profit: $41,431
• Equity at exit: $11,928

10-year hold

• IRR: 48.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.39×
• Total profit: $120,633
• Equity at exit: $6,917

Cash invested: $22,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48227

• Rents YoY: 5.6%
• Active inventory: 385
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,764 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax from tax record: −$162 /mo · $1,942/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$370
• Net cashflow: $779

Break-even live

Break-even rent $778

Max offer price $80,000

Occupancy floor 51%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,000
• Closing costs: $2,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14669 Rutherford St Detroit, MI	4.0	2.0	2359	$1,950	$0.83	43d	1	0.11mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2025-10-21
   status Pending 180-char remark

   Show marketing remark (180 chars)

   INVESTOR SPECIAL! PROPERTY BEING SOLD "AS IS" DON'T MISS OUT! SUBJECT TO APPROVAL OF PROBATE COURT AND BEING SOLD AS A PACKAGE DEAL WITH MLS 20250024205 AND 202500224036.

2. 2025-10-21
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (180 chars)

   INVESTOR SPECIAL! PROPERTY BEING SOLD "AS IS" DON'T MISS OUT! SUBJECT TO APPROVAL OF PROBATE COURT AND BEING SOLD AS A PACKAGE DEAL WITH MLS 20250024205 AND 202500224036.

3. 2025-08-14
   status Active 180-char remark

   Show marketing remark (180 chars)

   INVESTOR SPECIAL! PROPERTY BEING SOLD "AS IS" DON'T MISS OUT! SUBJECT TO APPROVAL OF PROBATE COURT AND BEING SOLD AS A PACKAGE DEAL WITH MLS 20250024205 AND 202500224036.

4. 2025-08-14
   status Active

   Show marketing remark (180 chars)

   INVESTOR SPECIAL! PROPERTY BEING SOLD "AS IS" DON'T MISS OUT! SUBJECT TO APPROVAL OF PROBATE COURT AND BEING SOLD AS A PACKAGE DEAL WITH MLS 20250024205 AND 202500224036.

5. 2025-04-09
   status Pending 180-char remark

   Show marketing remark (180 chars)

   INVESTOR SPECIAL! PROPERTY BEING SOLD "AS IS" DON'T MISS OUT! SUBJECT TO APPROVAL OF PROBATE COURT AND BEING SOLD AS A PACKAGE DEAL WITH MLS 20250024205 AND 202500224036.

6. 2025-04-09
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (180 chars)

   INVESTOR SPECIAL! PROPERTY BEING SOLD "AS IS" DON'T MISS OUT! SUBJECT TO APPROVAL OF PROBATE COURT AND BEING SOLD AS A PACKAGE DEAL WITH MLS 20250024205 AND 202500224036.

7. 2025-04-09
   listed $80,000 Active 180-char remark

   Show marketing remark (180 chars)

   INVESTOR SPECIAL! PROPERTY BEING SOLD "AS IS" DON'T MISS OUT! SUBJECT TO APPROVAL OF PROBATE COURT AND BEING SOLD AS A PACKAGE DEAL WITH MLS 20250024205 AND 202500224036.

8. 2025-04-09
   listed $80,000 Active

   Show marketing remark (180 chars)

   INVESTOR SPECIAL! PROPERTY BEING SOLD "AS IS" DON'T MISS OUT! SUBJECT TO APPROVAL OF PROBATE COURT AND BEING SOLD AS A PACKAGE DEAL WITH MLS 20250024205 AND 202500224036.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,942 · $162/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,942 · $162/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,170
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,481
• − Property taxes: −$1,942
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,694
• − Management: −$1,694
• − Depreciation: −$2,327
• Taxable income: $8,632
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,072
• After-tax cash flow: $7,276/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Detroit Public Schools Community District
• NCES district ID: 2601103
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $25,815
• Composite: 13.06/100
• National rank: #9564
• State rank: #499 of 540 in MI

Livability — Detroit

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #218
• US rank: #5427

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Detroit, MI
• County: Wayne County · 1,562,939 people
• City population: 572,865
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• Population (ZIP): 40,302
• Household income: $36,527
• Rent vs Own: 40.9% rent · 59.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 2371.0

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,675,273 people
• By 2030: 1,620,300 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 1,502,341 · -10.3%
• By 2050: 1,384,039 · -17.4%
• By 2075: 1,124,592 · -32.9%
• By 2100: 881,193 · -47.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 95% Two or more races 3% White 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+29.0) · D 62.7% · R 33.7% · Other 3.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.5pp toward R · 2008: 49.5pp · 2024: 29.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+29.0 2020: D+38.1 2016: D+37.3 2012: D+46.9 2008: D+49.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -125.00%
• Current HPI: 186.4158
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.59%
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-21 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-10-21 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2025-08-14 Relisted — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-08-14 Relisted — REALCOMP
• 2025-04-09 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-04-09 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2025-04-09 Listed $80,000 REALCOMP
• 2025-04-09 Listed $80,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

-2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,942 · -55.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.