211 S Vista Dr · Lakeshore Gardens-Hidden Acres, TX 78383

$68,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · Manufactured public records · 162 Days on market

Built 1985 10,515 sqft lot ↓ 31% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

If you are looking for lake property but have been unsure about spending too much money but want the views, here you are, for this low price buy something low like this, make it your own with your own updates and have a weekend place or eventually a permanent place to hang out or live. I decided to say less show pictures and just invite you to check it out for yourself. Call me or your realtor.

Key facts

• 0.24 acre lot
• Built 1985
• Listed 162 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $68k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $702 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $68k).
• Recommended offer: $60k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.7% vs local median 4.3% in Lakeshore Gardens-Hidden Acres — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• George West ISD (rural): math 55% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #95 of 826 in TX (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 119 active listings in the ZIP; 12 units permitted in Live Oak County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $470 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Live Oak County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 162 days — a 12% lower offer ($60k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $12k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $59,840 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 162 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 44.22%
• DSCR: 2.97
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 41.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.77×
• Total profit: $33,663
• Equity at exit: $10,139

10-year hold

• IRR: 47.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.56×
• Total profit: $86,828
• Equity at exit: $5,879

Cash invested: $19,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78383

• Home prices YoY: -12.8%
• Active inventory: 119
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,424 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$357
• Tax from tax record: −$38 /mo · $461/yr
• Insurance: −$28
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$299
• Net cashflow: $702

Break-even live

Break-even rent $536

Max offer price $68,000

Occupancy floor 46%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $740	-5% $721	+0% $702	+5% $682	+10% $663
Rent	-10% $589	-5% $645	+0% $702	+5% $758	+10% $814
Rate	-1.0pp $736	-0.5pp $719	base $702	+0.5pp $684	+1.0pp $666

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,000
• Closing costs: $2,040
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-02-06
   status Pending
2. 2025-10-21
   price $68,000
3. 2025-09-11
   status Active
4. 2025-08-04
   status Pending
5. 2025-07-21
   listed $80,000 Active
6. 2021-01-04
   historical
7. 2020-10-31
   status Active
8. 2020-10-26
   historical Active Under Contract
9. 2020-06-27
   status Active
10. 2020-06-23
    historical Active Under Contract
11. 2019-12-12
    listed $99,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $461 · $38/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,244 · $104/mo
• Expected delta: +$784/yr (+$65/mo · 170.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,088
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,809
• − Property taxes: −$461
• − Insurance: −$340
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,367
• − Management: −$1,367
• − Depreciation: −$1,978
• Taxable income: $7,766
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,864
• After-tax cash flow: $6,556/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: George West ISD
• NCES district ID: 4820550
• Math proficiency: 55% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $45,721
• Composite: 48.17/100
• National rank: #2175
• State rank: #95 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lakeshore Gardens-Hidden Acres

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,306

Population outlook (Live Oak County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,886 people
• By 2030: 14,793 · +6.5%
• By 2040: 16,633 · +19.8%
• By 2050: 18,511 · +33.3%
• By 2075: 23,859 · +71.8%
• By 2100: 26,396 · +90.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Hispanic / Latino 40% Two or more races 17% Black 4% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 19% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Live Oak

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+69.6) · D 14.9% · R 84.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: -49.0pp · 2024: -69.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+69.6 2020: R+66.9 2016: R+63.5 2012: R+54.5 2008: R+49.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -26.06%
• Current HPI: 178.3727
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-31.3% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-06 Pending — CBMLS
• 2025-10-21 Price Changed $68,000 CBMLS
• 2025-09-11 Relisted — CBMLS
• 2025-08-04 Pending — CBMLS
• 2025-07-21 Listed $80,000 CBMLS
• 2021-01-04 Delisted — CBMLS
• 2020-10-31 Relisted — CBMLS
• 2020-10-26 Contingent — CBMLS
• 2020-06-27 Relisted — CBMLS
• 2020-06-23 Contingent — CBMLS
• 2019-12-12 Listed $99,000 CBMLS

Property tax history

+14.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $461 · +117.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.