31207 Wide Oak Cir · Stagecoach, TX 77355

$155,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured public records · 7 Days on market

Built 2002 0.25 ac lot Est $151k · at est. $17/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.7/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.8/10.0
• ARV discount +6.2/15.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 31207 Wide Oak Circle in Magnolia! This well-maintained home sits on a beautiful lot shaded by mature trees. Has custom-built covered front porch, perfect for relaxing and enjoying the outdoors. Inside, the seamlessly layout connects the living, dining, and kitchen areas, creating a comfortable space for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen offers abundant cabinetry, generous counter space, and a large island for seating. Recent improvements include a brand-new roof on both the home and the 16’ x 16’ storage shed, as well as new wood fencing surrounding the backyard for added privacy. The spacious backyard provides plenty of room for recreation, pets and gard

Key facts

• Spacious backyard
• Abundant cabinetry
• Long driveway

Tags

• ABUNDANT CABINETRY
• LARGE ISLAND FOR SEATING
• NEW WOOD FENCING
• SPACIOUS BACKYARD
• LONG DRIVEWAY
• EASY ACCESS TO MAJOR FREEWAYS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Seller disclosure available; Property taxes listed for 2025
• Financial info: Lease not considered
• HOA & community: Community association (CKm) with an annual fee of $200

Exterior

• Parking: Parking details not specified
• Security: No security details specified
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 2002; Single-story (stories not specifically listed)
• Construction: Wood siding exterior; Composition roof; Built in 2002
• Exterior features: Located in a subdivision

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen details not specified
• Bedrooms: Number of bedrooms not specified
• Flooring: Flooring details not specified
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: 3 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Laundry details not specified

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $514 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $155k).
• Cap rate 10.3% vs local median 4.2% in Stagecoach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,010 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Magnolia West H S (math 41% / reading 53%, grade D-, #591 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 2,208 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: 557 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $155,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.22%
• DSCR: 1.63
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $150,528
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
31222 Wide Oak Cir	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,344 (0%)	9mo	$150,000	$112	90

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.18×
• Total profit: $7,647
• Equity at exit: $23,111

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.13×
• Total profit: $48,890
• Equity at exit: $13,402

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77355

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Active inventory: 557
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,976 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax from tax record: −$153 /mo · $1,833/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$17
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$415
• Net cashflow: $514

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,326

Max offer price $155,000

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $602	-5% $558	+0% $514	+5% $470	+10% $426
Rent	-10% $358	-5% $436	+0% $514	+5% $592	+10% $670
Rate	-1.0pp $592	-0.5pp $554	base $514	+0.5pp $474	+1.0pp $433

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
24836 Sugar Pine Cone St Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1501	$1,950	$1.30	18d	1	0.97mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $17 · $204/yr

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $155,000 Active 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $155,000 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $155,000 Active 3 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $155,000 Active 2 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   remarks 687-char remark
6. 2026-06-15
   listed $155,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,833 · $153/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,836 · $236/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,003/yr (+$84/mo · 54.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,717
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$1,833
• − Insurance: −$775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,897
• − Management: −$1,897
• − HOA: −$204
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable income: $3,919
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$940
• After-tax cash flow: $5,230/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — Stagecoach

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1010
• US rank: #17937

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 32,847
• Household income: $102,066
• Rent vs Own: 17.3% rent · 82.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 209.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 14% Black 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Serbian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 17%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -116.90%
• Current HPI: 268.5845
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-14 Listed $155,000 HARMLS
• 2003-08-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,833 · +9.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.