411 Orange Dr · San Juan, TX 78589

$104,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Manufactured public records · 184 Days on market

Built 2013 4,163 sqft lot $99/sqft · at area comps Est $105k · at est. $11/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Motivated seller — all reasonable offers will be considered! Impressive and move-in ready, this well-maintained 2013 Oak Creek 16 x 64 is truly a must-see. Step inside to experience the open, inviting feel enhanced by a natural color palette, textured walls, and high tray ceilings. The front living area is filled with natural light and flows seamlessly into a well-designed kitchen featuring plenty counter and cabinet space, plus a comfortable eat-in dining area. A wide hallway leads to an indoor laundry area, a spacious guest bedroom, and the master ensuite. The primary suite offers generous space, updated carpet (2023), a large walk-in closet, step-in shower, and single vanity. The exterior features replaced shingles (2023), a plush yard ideal for a furry friend, a long carport perfect for staying cool and entertaining, and a one-car garage. Come see what this friendly 55+ community in Orangewood Estates has to offer—where you own your land!

Key facts

• Move-in ready
• Textured walls
• High tray ceilings

Tags

• MOVE-IN READY
• WELL-MAINTAINED
• NATURAL COLOR PALETTE
• TEXTURED WALLS
• HIGH TRAY CEILINGS
• NATURAL LIGHT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $105k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $111 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $105k).
• Recommended offer: $92k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 3.4% in San Juan — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#294 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Pharr-San Juan-Alamo ISD (suburban): math 18% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #740 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Alfred Sorensen El (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,791 of 4,322 statewide, top 68%, 616 students, 83% FRL); Austin Middle (math 14% / reading 18%, grade F, #1,543 of 1,662 statewide, top 94%, 951 students, 85% FRL); Psja Early College H S (math 33% / reading 65%, grade D, #553 of 1,632 statewide, top 34%, 2,459 students, 93% FRL) — zoned schools average 87% FRL vs 72% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 363 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 63% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $725 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 184 days — a 12% lower offer ($92k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.5% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $92,312 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 184 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.52%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $104,900
• List price: $104,900
• Delta: —
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
411 Orange Dr	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,056 (0%)	0mo	$104,900	$99	95

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-9,870
• Equity at exit: $15,641

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.03×
• Total profit: $805
• Equity at exit: $9,070

Cash invested: $29,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78589

• Home prices YoY: -12.1%
• Active inventory: 363
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,185 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$550
• Tax from tax record: −$221 /mo · $2,650/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$11
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$249
• Net cashflow: $111

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,045

Max offer price $104,900

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $170	-5% $140	+0% $111	+5% $81	+10% $51
Rent	-10% $17	-5% $64	+0% $111	+5% $157	+10% $204
Rate	-1.0pp $163	-0.5pp $137	base $111	+0.5pp $83	+1.0pp $56

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,225
• Closing costs: $3,147
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 27 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1306 Adela Dr San Juan, TX	3.0	2.0	1278	$1,500	$1.17	16d	1	0.31mi
1410 State Ave San Juan, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,350	$1.35	45d	1	0.34mi
2302 San Pascual St San Juan, TX	3.0	2.0	1285	$1,800	$1.40	45d	1	0.58mi
913 E 13th St #1 San Juan, TX	2.0	2.0	1008	$1,050	$1.04	45d	1	0.70mi
1702 Angelina Dr Unit 4 San Juan, TX	3.0	2.0	1037	$1,300	$1.25	20d	1	0.76mi
1806 Angelina Dr Unit 2 San Juan, TX	3.0	2.0	1142	$1,250	$1.09	25d	1	0.78mi
1106 Cooper Ln Unit 3 San Juan, TX	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,125	$1.12	45d	1	1.15mi
404 Rafael Dr Unit 1 San Juan, TX	2.0	2.0	1044	$1,080	$1.03	45d	1	1.19mi
404 Rafael Dr Unit 4 San Juan, TX	3.0	2.0	1044	$1,270	$1.22	25d	1	1.19mi
400 Rafael Dr Unit 3 San Juan, TX	2.0	2.0	969	$1,100	$1.14	23d	1	1.20mi
405 Rafael Dr Apt 2 San Juan, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,250	$1.04	45d	1	1.21mi
221 Rafael Dr Unit 1 San Juan, TX	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,150	$0.96	45d	1	1.28mi
1807 S Linden St Unit A Pharr, TX	2.0	2.0	960	$900	$0.94	45d	1	1.28mi
1606 Kumquat Ave Pharr, TX	3.0	2.0	1476	$1,398	$0.95	45d	1	1.30mi
217 Rafael Dr Unit 4 San Juan, TX	2.0	2.0	1078	$1,100	$1.02	45d	1	1.31mi
1604 E Quail St Pharr, TX	2.0	2.0	956	$850	$0.89	45d	1	1.31mi
1806 S Linden St Pharr, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$995	$0.90	45d	1	1.31mi
1606 S Kumquat St Pharr, TX	3.0	2.0	1476	$1,350	$0.91	25d	1	1.35mi
1802 S Kumquat St Unit B Pharr, TX	2.0	2.0	910	$850	$0.93	45d	1	1.35mi
1802 S Kumquat St Unit B Pharr, TX	2.0	2.0	910	$850	$0.93	23d	1	1.35mi
1504 E Quail St Pharr, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$995	$0.90	45d	1	1.37mi
1803 S Ironwood St Unit 4 Pharr, TX	2.0	2.0	925	$899	$0.97	45d	1	1.43mi
837 S 13th St Alamo, TX	2.0	1.5	1104	$1,095	$0.99	16d	1	1.45mi
1806 S Ironwood St Pharr, TX	2.0	2.5	910	$850	$0.93	45d	1	1.47mi
1806 S Ironwood St Apt D Pharr, TX	2.0	2.0	910	$850	$0.93	45d	1	1.47mi
1803 S Horse St Unit 2 Pharr, TX	2.0	2.0	972	$825	$0.85	25d	1	1.48mi
1304 E Quail St Unit D Pharr, TX	3.0	2.0	1065	$825	$0.77	20d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $11 · $132/yr

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending 969-char remark

   Show marketing remark (969 chars)

   Motivated seller — all reasonable offers will be considered! Impressive and move-in ready, this well-maintained 2013 Oak Creek 16 x 64 is truly a must-see. Step inside to experience the open, inviting feel enhanced by a natural color palette, textured walls, and high tray ceilings. The front living area is filled with natural light and flows seamlessly into a well-designed kitchen featuring plenty counter and cabinet space, plus a comfortable eat-in dining area. A wide hallway leads to an indoor laundry area, a spacious guest bedroom, and the master ensuite. The primary suite offers generous space, updated carpet (2023), a large walk-in closet, step-in shower, and single vanity. The exterior features replaced shingles (2023), a plush yard ideal for a furry friend, a long carport perfect for staying cool and entertaining, and a one-car garage. Come see what this friendly 55+ community in Orangewood Estates has to offer—where you own your land!

2. 2026-05-10
   historical Option 969-char remark

   Show marketing remark (969 chars)

   Motivated seller — all reasonable offers will be considered! Impressive and move-in ready, this well-maintained 2013 Oak Creek 16 x 64 is truly a must-see. Step inside to experience the open, inviting feel enhanced by a natural color palette, textured walls, and high tray ceilings. The front living area is filled with natural light and flows seamlessly into a well-designed kitchen featuring plenty counter and cabinet space, plus a comfortable eat-in dining area. A wide hallway leads to an indoor laundry area, a spacious guest bedroom, and the master ensuite. The primary suite offers generous space, updated carpet (2023), a large walk-in closet, step-in shower, and single vanity. The exterior features replaced shingles (2023), a plush yard ideal for a furry friend, a long carport perfect for staying cool and entertaining, and a one-car garage. Come see what this friendly 55+ community in Orangewood Estates has to offer—where you own your land!

3. 2026-03-20
   price $104,900 969-char remark

   Show marketing remark (969 chars)

   Motivated seller — all reasonable offers will be considered! Impressive and move-in ready, this well-maintained 2013 Oak Creek 16 x 64 is truly a must-see. Step inside to experience the open, inviting feel enhanced by a natural color palette, textured walls, and high tray ceilings. The front living area is filled with natural light and flows seamlessly into a well-designed kitchen featuring plenty counter and cabinet space, plus a comfortable eat-in dining area. A wide hallway leads to an indoor laundry area, a spacious guest bedroom, and the master ensuite. The primary suite offers generous space, updated carpet (2023), a large walk-in closet, step-in shower, and single vanity. The exterior features replaced shingles (2023), a plush yard ideal for a furry friend, a long carport perfect for staying cool and entertaining, and a one-car garage. Come see what this friendly 55+ community in Orangewood Estates has to offer—where you own your land!

4. 2026-02-08
   price $109,900 969-char remark

   Show marketing remark (969 chars)

   Motivated seller — all reasonable offers will be considered! Impressive and move-in ready, this well-maintained 2013 Oak Creek 16 x 64 is truly a must-see. Step inside to experience the open, inviting feel enhanced by a natural color palette, textured walls, and high tray ceilings. The front living area is filled with natural light and flows seamlessly into a well-designed kitchen featuring plenty counter and cabinet space, plus a comfortable eat-in dining area. A wide hallway leads to an indoor laundry area, a spacious guest bedroom, and the master ensuite. The primary suite offers generous space, updated carpet (2023), a large walk-in closet, step-in shower, and single vanity. The exterior features replaced shingles (2023), a plush yard ideal for a furry friend, a long carport perfect for staying cool and entertaining, and a one-car garage. Come see what this friendly 55+ community in Orangewood Estates has to offer—where you own your land!

5. 2025-11-14
   listed $115,000 Active 969-char remark

   Show marketing remark (969 chars)

   Motivated seller — all reasonable offers will be considered! Impressive and move-in ready, this well-maintained 2013 Oak Creek 16 x 64 is truly a must-see. Step inside to experience the open, inviting feel enhanced by a natural color palette, textured walls, and high tray ceilings. The front living area is filled with natural light and flows seamlessly into a well-designed kitchen featuring plenty counter and cabinet space, plus a comfortable eat-in dining area. A wide hallway leads to an indoor laundry area, a spacious guest bedroom, and the master ensuite. The primary suite offers generous space, updated carpet (2023), a large walk-in closet, step-in shower, and single vanity. The exterior features replaced shingles (2023), a plush yard ideal for a furry friend, a long carport perfect for staying cool and entertaining, and a one-car garage. Come see what this friendly 55+ community in Orangewood Estates has to offer—where you own your land!

6. 2013-02-19
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,650 · $221/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,650 · $221/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,223
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,876
• − Property taxes: −$2,650
• − Insurance: −$524
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,138
• − Management: −$1,138
• − HOA: −$132
• − Depreciation: −$3,052
• Taxable loss: −$287
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$69
• After-tax cash flow: $1,397/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pharr-San Juan-Alamo ISD
• NCES district ID: 4834860
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -34.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $33,757
• Composite: 19.63/100
• National rank: #8744
• State rank: #740 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Juan

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #294
• US rank: #6725

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Juan, TX
• City population: 34,370
• Population (ZIP): 39,958

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 97% Two or more races 43% White 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 94%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada
• Languages at home: 18% English-only · Spanish 82%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -32.82%
• Current HPI: 239.3829
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-8.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — MCALLENMLS
• 2026-05-10 Contingent — MCALLENMLS
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $104,900 MCALLENMLS
• 2026-02-08 Price Changed $109,900 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-11-14 Listed $115,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2013-02-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+15.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,650 · +8.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.