3313 Bells Ln · Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance), KY 40211

$125,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,351 sqft · SingleFamily · 13 Days on market

Built 1949 6,534 sqft lot Est $178k · 30% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.1/10.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Don't wait too long! Very nice 4 BR, 1 BA Cape Cod with loads of updates! Roof, CA & Heat, water heater & double pane tilt windows. Home has unfinished basement. 2car garage & fenced yard. Shows nicely Call for private showing. NOTE ~ Sewer assessment

Key facts

• 6,534 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1949

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $334 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $125k).
• Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 4.0% in Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance) — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Jefferson County (urban): math 19% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #121 of 165 in KY (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.9%/yr); 140 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,836 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (1,558 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,449/mo this rent would consume 55% of the median local household income ($32k/yr) (locally 1483% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.9% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 26y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $74k; list at $125k implies a 69% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1949 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $125,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1949 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.44%
• DSCR: 1.51
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $178,332
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2315 S 37th St	0.18mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,204 (-11%)	2mo	$159,000	$132	67
1624 Hemlock Ct	0.75mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,376 (+2%)	2mo	$32,500	$24	56
3536 Algonquin Pkwy	0.31mi	4/1.0	1,224 (-9%)	21mo	$97,500	$80	52
1608 Russell Lee Dr	0.65mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,326 (-2%)	8mo	$175,000	$132	49
3709 Stratton Ave	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,296 (-4%)	10mo	$170,000	$131	48
1519 S 32nd St	0.74mi	4/2.0	1,272 (-6%)	10mo	$156,000	$123	44
3010 Wyandotte Ave	0.47mi	4/1.0	1,148 (-15%)	12mo	$165,000	$144	43
2812 Wingfield Ln	0.44mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,550 (+15%)	10mo	$224,000	$145	40
3002 Young Ave	0.69mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,500 (+11%)	9mo	$215,000	$143	31
2602 Allston Ave	0.70mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,506 (+12%)	15mo	$199,900	$133	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.87% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.11×
• Total profit: $3,762
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.21×
• Total profit: $42,435
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40211

• Home prices YoY: -33.4%
• Rents YoY: 4.9%
• Active inventory: 140
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,449 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$103 /mo · $1,239/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$304
• Net cashflow: $334

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,026

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $404	-5% $369	+0% $334	+5% $298	+10% $263
Rent	-10% $219	-5% $276	+0% $334	+5% $391	+10% $448
Rate	-1.0pp $397	-0.5pp $365	base $334	+0.5pp $301	+1.0pp $268

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3313 Penway Ave Louisville, KY	4.0	2.0	1142	$1,645	$1.44	24d	1	0.19mi
1804 Russell Lee Dr Louisville, KY	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	810	$1,304	$1.61	2d	1	0.51mi
2629 Olive St Louisville, KY	4.0	1.0	1120	$1,500	$1.34	24d	1	0.63mi
1622 Beech St Louisville, KY	4.0	1.0	1108	$1,445	$1.30	17d	1	0.67mi
1545 Catalpa St Louisville, KY	4.0	1.5	1760	$1,545	$0.88	4d	1	0.83mi
2311 Plantation Dr Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	988	$1,200	$1.21	17d	1	0.86mi
1439 Beech St Apt 1 Louisville, KY	3.0	1.5	1000	$820	$0.82	24d	1	0.91mi
3611 Regatta Way Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1035	$1,450	$1.40	17d	1	1.07mi
1339 S 28th St Unit 3 Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1125	$1,175	$1.04	21d	1	1.19mi
3215 Virginia Ave Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	975	$924	$0.95	24d	1	1.22mi
2913 Dumesnil St Apt 3 Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1112	$740	$0.67	11d	1	1.22mi
1731 Sonne Ave Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1010	$1,300	$1.29	17d	1	1.25mi
1410 Standard Village Cir Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	1200	$900	$0.75	24d	1	1.29mi
1115 S 32nd St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1393	$1,275	$0.92	24d	1	1.36mi
1115 S 32nd St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1393	$1,275	$0.92	22d	1	1.36mi
3514 Grand Ave Louisville, KY	3.0	1.5	1450	$1,295	$0.89	22d	1	1.36mi
1155 S 28th St Unit 4 Louisville, KY	4.0	2.0	1010	$1,350	$1.34	24d	1	1.38mi
4514 Winnrose Way Louisville, KY	3.0	1.5	1064	$1,500	$1.41	2d	1	1.41mi
2223 Saint Louis Ave Louisville, KY	3.0	1.5	1152	$1,175	$1.02	24d	1	1.43mi
2706 Hale Ave Unit 1 Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,400	$1.27	24d	1	1.45mi
1774 Bolling Ave Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	1611	$1,300	$0.81	11d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2024-02-01
   status Pending
2. 2024-01-13
   listed $125,000 Active
3. 2017-09-14
   soldstatus $74,000
4. 2012-04-25
   soldstatus $20,597
5. 2012-03-03
   listed $20,000
6. 2004-06-01
   soldstatus $87,900
7. 2004-05-26
   soldstatus $87,900 263-char remark

   Show marketing remark (263 chars)

   Don't wait too long! Very nice 4 BR, 1 BA Cape Cod with loads of updates! Roof, CA & Heat, water heater & double pane tilt windows. Home has unfinished basement. 2car garage & fenced yard. Shows nicely Call for private showing. NOTE ~ Sewer assessment

8. 2004-03-13
   listed $87,500 263-char remark

   Show marketing remark (263 chars)

   Don't wait too long! Very nice 4 BR, 1 BA Cape Cod with loads of updates! Roof, CA & Heat, water heater & double pane tilt windows. Home has unfinished basement. 2car garage & fenced yard. Shows nicely Call for private showing. NOTE ~ Sewer assessment

9. 2000-05-31
   soldstatus $72,000
10. 2000-04-22
    listed $76,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,239 · $103/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,239 · $103/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,385
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,239
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,391
• − Management: −$1,391
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $2,101
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$504
• After-tax cash flow: $3,500/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County
• NCES district ID: 2102990
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $47,885
• Composite: 23.45/100
• National rank: #7884
• State rank: #121 of 165 in KY

Livability — Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance)

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance), KY
• County: Jefferson County · 790,184 people
• City population: 419,741
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 20,407
• Household income: $31,749
• Rent vs Own: 58.6% rent · 41.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1483.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 823,112 people
• By 2030: 849,343 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 895,696 · +8.8%
• By 2050: 933,630 · +13.4%
• By 2075: 1,028,262 · +24.9%
• By 2100: 1,072,675 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 90% White 5% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+16.6) · D 57.4% · R 40.9% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.5pp toward D · 2008: 12.0pp · 2024: 16.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.6 2020: D+20.1 2016: D+13.3 2012: D+11.1 2008: D+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.22%
• Current HPI: 176.337
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.87%
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+63.4% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2024-02-01 Pending — Metro Search MLS
• 2024-01-13 Listed $125,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2017-09-14 Sold (Public Records) $74,000 Public Records
• 2012-04-25 Sold (MLS) $20,597 Metro Search MLS
• 2012-03-03 Listed $20,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2004-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $87,900 Public Records
• 2004-05-26 Sold (MLS) $87,900 Metro Search MLS
• 2004-03-13 Listed $87,500 Metro Search MLS
• 2000-05-31 Sold (MLS) $72,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2000-04-22 Listed $76,500 Metro Search MLS

Property tax history

+6.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,239 · -2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.