15629 Big Ridge Rd · St. Martin, MS 39532

$167,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,342 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1966 0.34 ac lot Est $188k · 11% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.8/30.0
• ARV discount +12.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

NEW FACELIFT underway!! Stove and Dishwasher will be installed; a/c will be serviced; new wood plank flooring installed; cabinets painted and rehung;.... AND it has three bedrooms with two full baths. This home is nestled among the huge oak trees of Big Ridge Road; also a beautiful magnolia tree in the front yard. Don't miss it, won't last long!

Key facts

• Mature landscaping
• Fenced lot
• A/c replaced

Tags

• FENCED LOT
• MATURE LANDSCAPING
• QUICK ACCESS TO SHOPPING
• ACCESS TO GULF COAST BEACHES
• ROOF REPLACED
• A/C REPLACED

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Near entertainment

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car); Concrete driveway with direct access
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single-family residence (house); One level; Move-in ready
• Construction: Brick veneer construction; Architectural shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built (year source: assessor)
• Exterior features: Chain link fence; Near beach; Fenced city lot; Additional exterior features (see remarks)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Free-standing range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Brick flooring; Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Ceiling fans; Heat pump cooling; Has heating and cooling
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Aluminum-framed windows
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $167k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $259 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $167k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Jackson County School District (rural): math 53% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #10 of 130 in MS (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 392 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 516 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $167,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.66%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $187,880
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15829 Belmont Dr	0.23mi	3/1.0	1,378 (+3%)	1mo	$182,000	$132	80
7108 Melrose Dr	0.27mi	3/1.0	1,323 (-1%)	2mo	$160,000	$121	79
15825 Waycross Dr	0.28mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,325 (-1%)	2mo	$186,500	$141	78
15304 Big Ridge Rd	0.41mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,396 (+4%)	0mo	$149,000	$107	67
7137 Mandarin Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,260 (-6%)	3mo	$172,000	$137	65
15505 Prairie St	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,363 (+2%)	2mo	$189,900	$139	62
16205 Waycross Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,250 (-7%)	4mo	$175,000	$140	59
16005 Hardwood Pl	0.49mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,200 (-11%)	1mo	$175,000	$146	49
16301 Trenton Dr	0.65mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,450 (+8%)	5mo	$194,900	$134	47
15520 Lyda Steen Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,170 (-13%)	6mo	$179,000	$153	47
15300 Lansing Dr	0.46mi	3/1.5	1,142 (-15%)	6mo	$159,900	$140	46
16224 Trenton Dr	0.65mi	3/1.5	1,166 (-13%)	8mo	$189,000	$162	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-10,607
• Equity at exit: $24,900

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.25×
• Total profit: $11,774
• Equity at exit: $14,439

Cash invested: $46,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39532

• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 392
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,677 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$876
• Tax from tax record: −$120 /mo · $1,438/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$352
• Net cashflow: $259

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,348

Max offer price $167,000

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $354	-5% $307	+0% $259	+5% $212	+10% $165
Rent	-10% $127	-5% $193	+0% $259	+5% $326	+10% $392
Rate	-1.0pp $343	-0.5pp $302	base $259	+0.5pp $216	+1.0pp $172

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,750
• Closing costs: $5,010
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15412 Big Ridge Rd Biloxi, MS	2.0	1.5	1020	$940	$0.92	44d	1	0.14mi
7001 Knollwood Dr Biloxi, MS	3.0	1.5	1200	$1,325	$1.10	44d	1	0.43mi
16016 Lemoyne Blvd Biloxi, MS	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1126	$1,607	$1.43	14d	18	0.62mi
16201 Cervantes Ct Biloxi, MS	4.0	2.0	1404	$1,975	$1.41	44d	1	0.69mi
11134 Gorenflo Rd Diberville, MS	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,500	$1.25	21d	1	0.76mi
11122 Gorenflo Rd Diberville, MS	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,500	$1.25	14d	1	0.78mi
8108 Laredo Ave Biloxi, MS	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,000	$1.00	14d	1	0.83mi
14801 Lemoyne Blvd Biloxi, MS	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	915	$1,550	$1.69	14d	20	0.93mi
14912 Mallett Rd Biloxi, MS	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1002	$1,780	$1.78	21d	32	1.01mi
112 E Orchard Loop D'Iberville, MS	2.0	2.5	1500	$2,970	$1.98	44d	1	1.07mi
103 E Orchard Loop D'Iberville, MS	2.0	2.5	1500	$2,970	$1.98	44d	1	1.07mi
107 E Orchard Loop D'Iberville, MS	2.0	2.5	1500	$2,970	$1.98	44d	1	1.07mi
611 Peach St D'Iberville, MS	3.0	2.5	1589	$2,500	$1.57	44d	1	1.08mi
14510 Lemoyne Blvd Biloxi, MS	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1125	$1,590	$1.41	14d	9	1.10mi
716 Plum Ln D'Iberville, MS	2.0	2.5	1600	$3,410	$2.13	44d	1	1.11mi
12088 Lamey Bridge Rd Diberville, MS	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1150	$1,650	$1.43	14d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-05
   status $167,000 Pending 1 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   remarks 699-char remark
3. 2026-06-03
   listed $167,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,438 · $120/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,438 · $120/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,119
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,355
• − Property taxes: −$1,438
• − Insurance: −$835
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,609
• − Management: −$1,609
• − Depreciation: −$4,858
• Taxable income: $414
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$99
• After-tax cash flow: $3,013/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jackson County School District
• NCES district ID: 2802160
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $53,569
• Composite: 43.57/100
• National rank: #2980
• State rank: #10 of 130 in MS

Livability — St. Martin

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Martin, MS
• County: Harrison County · 178,171 people
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• Population (ZIP): 36,662
• Household income: $68,710
• Rent vs Own: 36.7% rent · 63.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 954.0

Population outlook (Jackson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 146,926 people
• By 2030: 148,442 · +1.0%
• By 2040: 149,631 · +1.8%
• By 2050: 148,723 · +1.2%
• By 2075: 147,845 · +0.6%
• By 2100: 144,510 · -1.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Black 15% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Italian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Vietnam, Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% Vietnamese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jackson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.9) · D 29.5% · R 69.4% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.4pp toward R · 2008: -33.5pp · 2024: -39.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.9 2020: R+34.6 2016: R+39.9 2012: R+36.1 2008: R+33.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -90.04%
• Current HPI: 154.9975
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.98%
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+51.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $167,000 MLSU
• 2020-09-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-09-02 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2020-06-24 Listed $110,000 MLSU

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,438 · +3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.